Never Lose Again

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BambinoFlex
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby BambinoFlex » Mon May 10, 2021 1:59 am

LeMercenaire wrote:
BambinoFlex wrote:
xplsive wrote:Can anyone here give me a clean objective definition of what a zline is, how its drawn and how its traded. If possible in not too hard of a trader slang language. I am a newbie. Looking at all these charts posted seems like everyone´s definition is a bit different. I am also not sure who is the original source of inventing "zline".

Thank for your help.


I had written an extensive explanation. Only to have the site as me to log in again, erasing my explanation. Here's the shorten version:

Z-Line, in my understanding, is the simple breaking of Highs and Lows of the market. In other familiar terms, it's also similar to "stop hunting" and pull back trading back into the Asian range (usually).

Another thing MO stated "Buy where you see buying, sell where you see selling" it doesn't help much but look at a chart, and you'll see how on a Green day, the previous low is attacked, activating short breakout trades, only to have price revert and close Green.

With the Asia session, price will create a range. Usually, in london or a few hours before, that Asia session low or high will be attacked, creating the same effect mentioned previously. ICT calls it "institutional trading." After the attack, or the breaking of a low/high, price reverts, past the other side of the range, and continues, sometimes, coming back to the same range, taking out all the "B/E" traders (zeroed out).

In theory, it works, practice is much harder. Where do you place stop loss, where do you take profit, how do you know what low/high is being attacked???

I think Z-Line, to be traded efficiently, you need to look at ranges well past the asia range. Trading with daily bias, so if price is above open, only buys, and vice versa for sells. Trading the asia range would be difficult, but once price has traveled a good amount, then the odds would increase.

Yen and CHF pairs have good stats on that. Usually once price has travelled 20+ pips in one direction, it's most likely to continue in that direction and close (giving you 30 pips if the range is usually 50). Whereas GBP pairs would travel farther and still have a high chance of closing opposite


That's a nice observation re the Yen and Swissie.



Thanks Lem! Attached you'll see my template where you can see that data.

I attached NJ to show as an example.

1. NJ High from open is 22 pips.
2. NJ Low from open is 9 pips.

Once that is established I look at the Frequency Distribution. This is where it gets confusing, but saying it out loud helps me.

1. Since NJ Low to open is 9 pips, then we have about a 45% probability the day will close Green.
2. Since NJ Open to High is 22 pips, we have less than 26% probability that price will reverse and close Red.

Trading these stats simple requires larger stop losses but the real gold is simply understanding how price tends to move on every pair.

If you shuffle through the pairs, you'll see that GBP pairs can go 30+ pips away from open, and still reverse and close the opposite way.

This information confirms Peter Crowns statement in Forex Factory about "If you want to stop the bleeding, never buy on a down day, and never sell on an up day" (paraphrased). I don't use this to open trades, but to become familiar with every pair and how they "tend" to move.
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1DayPriceMovement.tpl
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Last edited by BambinoFlex on Mon May 10, 2021 3:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TheRumpledOne
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon May 10, 2021 2:46 am

BambinoFlex wrote:
1. Since NJ Low to open is 9 pips, then we have about a 45% probability the day will close Green.
2. Since NJ Open to High is 22 pips, we have less than 26% probability that price will reverse and close Red.


THERE IS NO PROBABILITY.

Those are statistics.

Probability is about the future.

Statistics are about the past.

DO NOT CONFUSE STATISTICS FOR PROBABILITY!!
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

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BambinoFlex
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby BambinoFlex » Mon May 10, 2021 3:10 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:
BambinoFlex wrote:
1. Since NJ Low to open is 9 pips, then we have about a 45% probability the day will close Green.
2. Since NJ Open to High is 22 pips, we have less than 26% probability that price will reverse and close Red.


THERE IS NO PROBABILITY.

Those are statistics.

Probability is about the future.

Statistics are about the past.

DO NOT CONFUSE STATISTICS FOR PROBABILITY!!



I always thought probability was in regards to the future, but in language, would it be "there's a 45% statistical probability to close green" or "45% statistical chance it will close green"

or how would you word it?
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby TheRumpledOne » Mon May 10, 2021 7:37 pm

BambinoFlex wrote:

I always thought probability was in regards to the future, but in language, would it be "there's a 45% statistical probability to close green" or "45% statistical chance it will close green"

or how would you word it?



Over the last N Bars, the price closed green 45% of the time.
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby TheRumpledOne » Sat May 22, 2021 2:23 pm

TRO_001.png
TRO_001.png (43.37 KiB) Viewed 6230 times


TRO_002.png
TRO_002.png (51.66 KiB) Viewed 6230 times


DO YOU SEE AN EDGE?

WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU TO DO?

HOW WOULD YOU TRADE THIS?

WHEN TO ENTER? EXIT?

IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby BambinoFlex » Sat May 22, 2021 5:48 pm

TheRumpledOne wrote:TRO_001.png

TRO_002.png

DO YOU SEE AN EDGE?

WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU TO DO?

HOW WOULD YOU TRADE THIS?

WHEN TO ENTER? EXIT?





Stop Loss at previous High or Low, Entry at daily open, or cross of daily open (since price will most likely create a wick on both sides of the bar indicated a low/high, cross of the open, then high/low and close.) TP would be close of day?? Not 100% but that's what I'm seeing
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby BambinoFlex » Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:37 am

TheRumpledOne wrote:TRO_001.png

TRO_002.png

DO YOU SEE AN EDGE?

WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU TO DO?

HOW WOULD YOU TRADE THIS?

WHEN TO ENTER? EXIT?




Going back to this. I still can't wrap my head around the data. With the first picture. In the past 100 days, price opened higher than prev. low and lower than prev. high. - This itself would mean that there is an opportunity to trade off the High/Low before the new day begins. Not taking into account other variables.

Second part, if today's High is Higher than Prev. High, 33 days out of 57 was the close higher than previous high. This would be to trade at the break of previous high and take your 5 pips. Stop loss can be anything really. Ideally treat it as a 1:1 and put stop loss at 5 pips and target 5 pips. Or us the minute chart and place at previous swing low only if 1:1 or better.

This is what I see, but my view is limited since there are other variables at play. What if price activates and retraces below previous high? Do you re-enter?
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby BambinoFlex » Wed Dec 29, 2021 3:38 am

So I've chosen my poison, I was struggling with trading the daily range vs the weekly range. Took some time off to get my head cleared out and I've decided to trade the weekly range. My arsenal has also gotten slightly bigger and I want to share my new findings. All dealing with pivots of course. Also, I've started to understand some MO stuff, all through the lens of pivots and hopefully I can explain my ideas correctly. Maybe it can help someone out.
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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby TheRumpledOne » Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:55 am

BambinoFlex wrote:
This is what I see, but my view is limited since there are other variables at play. What if price activates and retraces below previous high? Do you re-enter?


Why wouldn't you re-enter?

Why would you re-enter?
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!



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Re: Never Lose Again

Postby BambinoFlex » Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:56 am

I mainly use pivots for RANGE purposes. My targets are.

1. Pivot Point (Pivot Fade)
2. S1 OR R1

Here's a picture. I should cut the price analyzer out but the main focus is that from the open, price will travel up or down, but certain levels are more likely to be crossed than others. For example. If I open 1 trade a day, and my goal is to be flat at the end of day, I will NOT place my targets at R3 or S3. Those lines do not get crossed as often. I have opted for the S1 or R1, depending on my bias.

The reason I treat pivots to help me know what's "likely" and what's "less likely" is because pivots are DYNAMIC. They are dependent on the previous day/hour/15minute (whatever pivot tf you're using). This is important because no matter market conditions, the pivots will reflect current market conditions.

Using the likely vs less likely idea, I've come to understand MO's explanation of how he views ranges. He did actual candle range studies, but I have gravitated toward pivots as my range study.

Quick note, the example is for day pivots, but you can use 4hr pivots, 1hr pivots, weekly pivots, etc... I focus on Weekly, Daily and the 4hr pivots.
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