with out the knowldege of knowing where to put your sl's and tp, it is kinda like this quote from the movie better off dead
Charles De Mar: [giving skiing instructions] Go that way, really fast. If something gets in your way, turn.
msforex wrote:The house in Vegas has, at best, a 52% - 48% advantage over the player.
But in BlackJack, there are times when the player has the edge based on the CARD COUNT. That's why if they catch you counting cards, you are asked to leave.
Are you saying there's an 85% chance of a 6 pip reversal trade each hour?
You know, VEGAS, would kill for those odds.
Also, are you looking at the H1 candle or summing up the M1 candles?
Thanks for sharing.
I am comparing the closing price of the H1 candle with the highest/lowest price of the following candle: in a successful reversal the low/high of the following candle must be at least 6 PIP below/above closing price of the previous candle. As shown in my indicator this is the case in +- 85% - whatever color the previous candle has!
Unfortunately, even with a 85% chance of win there is still somebody who will spoil our party: Mr. StopLoss or THE loosing trade. The 85% chance for win comes basically down to losing 1 trade out of 7. So if we make 6*6 = 36 PIPs the loosing trade will eat all 36 PIPs of profit (in statistic average). This is know as the risk/reward ratio. Test it with an indicator or even better an EA - its simple mathematics.
So obviously a high probability for a successful trade is not enough - we also need to consider the risk/reward ratio!