Lvup7 wrote: LeMercenaire wrote:
Each pair/stock/option/future etc. Has its own characteristics.
It takes some effort to pair up a strategy with the vehicle you use.
I have found dead horse works on different vehicles and time frames but not all.
I know a guy that traded one stock all year with one method and made 7 figures.
Many variables out there to figure out.
Like me with the DAX last couple of years and then its behaviour changed, almost it seemed, overnight and it became much less tradeable (for me and what I wanted).
Interestingly, after having moved over to other more suitable targets, it seems like it may be reverting to habits of old just lately. Going to keep an eye on it and see what's what.
I rather lure in the shadows for my own sake, but this warrants an healthy conversation. Markets change behavior? To what to extent? When you are working of fixed points of reference High/Low/open/close there isnt much room to change your behavior. Your basically confiding yourself in a box over and over again. Box after box Up and Down, thats it. This in itself is the holy grail.
Human being are excellent manipulators. When we try to manipulate the market and make it look more pretty perhaps more accepting of our biases "MAs, Supply and demand". S/R, RSI etc.." we see constant or eventual change. Only by embracing true chaos, and appreciating the limitations of the markets we'll see it for what it is. Boxes/bars been painting up and down.
Are you sure its the Dax that changed behavior or was it your perception of what believe to be true?
No way am I trying to attack you, respect you too much for that. Just a different perceptive here, try to go back to see how you could traded the DAX differently? Ma
ybe you'll learning something new.
Markets are an artificial organic mechanism. The exoskeleton being the artifice we see on screen, with the internal organs the human beings that make the decisions (I am deliberately ignoring the super-computers that are also in the mix, as they are still technically overseen by humans).
As such, the markets are still ruled by human emotions and frailty. Sheep follow sheep. Wolves drive sheep.
You could write a book on this topic with little effort, so I won't blabber on. Think of it this way...every year, markets slow for any holiday. What about those holidays that shift? The markets still slow but now on the dates the year's holiday falls, not the previous date.
At its simplest, this shows how markets will change their behaviour.
As per specifically The DAX, this was effected by the political strife around Merkel and the final moves re Brexit, immigration, Covid - Merkel was being pummeled and sinking fast. Once that situation began to clear, or at least establish some stability, The DAX (the human fears) began to settle again.
As for my perception of things playing a part - well, yes and no. Of course it does in the sense of I am aware there is something going on but as to how that impacts on my trading brain, that's negligible. Although there is human input into the overall process, at its heart, I am following a very particular set of rules. If those rules aren't triggered by events, then I am not imagining that, I know for a fact that something has changed.
So long as I accept that and don't try to subconsciously fit the new events into my method and just instead accept that there are no trades today, then I will be fine.