Blind Mouse Strategy

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:11 pm

newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
Image


At first glance, my reaction is huh? I thought S&R lines were derived from candle closes. And I see conflict between: (1) 50% mark is S&R used when doubling position; and (2) S&R line is your average price.

If someone who understands this chart can speak in nongenious terms then I would appreciate an explanation.


If you double your position then your average price is the midpoint between your first and second order making a 50% RET your line of S&R...


So I interpret what you wrote to mean that S&R lines are derived from your average price rather than how previous candles closed. I previously thought that we look to candle closes to derive our S&R lines and use them to protect our average price.



S&R does not exist, there is only what price is currently doing or not doing over a period of time that is relevant to you.

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Thu Jul 22, 2010 6:42 pm

aliassmith wrote:
MightyOne wrote:ImageImage


Well you did hit the extreme I see. I don't believe I could of or would of
held the position like that. I definitly would have took profit at the place I
marked held profit. There was also nice entry near where I marked
resistance to go short again.

Guess "I" am more confortable trading from stops to stops, instead of
from stops to extremes.



There can only be one highest and one lowest price in any given period of time but there will be many lower lows and higher highs.

Comfort is one cushion that I will never use while trading...

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newark18
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Postby newark18 » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:05 pm

MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
Image


At first glance, my reaction is huh? I thought S&R lines were derived from candle closes. And I see conflict between: (1) 50% mark is S&R used when doubling position; and (2) S&R line is your average price.

If someone who understands this chart can speak in nongenious terms then I would appreciate an explanation.


If you double your position then your average price is the midpoint between your first and second order making a 50% RET your line of S&R...


So I interpret what you wrote to mean that S&R lines are derived from your average price rather than how previous candles closed. I previously thought that we look to candle closes to derive our S&R lines and use them to protect our average price.



S&R does not exist, there is only what price is currently doing or not doing over a period of time that is relevant to you.


Then I must respectfully say that S&R is a complete misnomer.
Failure is an opportunity to learn.

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MightyOne
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Postby MightyOne » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:08 pm

newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
Image


At first glance, my reaction is huh? I thought S&R lines were derived from candle closes. And I see conflict between: (1) 50% mark is S&R used when doubling position; and (2) S&R line is your average price.

If someone who understands this chart can speak in nongenious terms then I would appreciate an explanation.


If you double your position then your average price is the midpoint between your first and second order making a 50% RET your line of S&R...


So I interpret what you wrote to mean that S&R lines are derived from your average price rather than how previous candles closed. I previously thought that we look to candle closes to derive our S&R lines and use them to protect our average price.



S&R does not exist, there is only what price is currently doing or not doing over a period of time that is relevant to you.


Then I must respectfully say that S&R is a complete misnomer.


"Price closes over a line that you believe to be S&R" -MO

:wink:

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TheRumpledOne
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Postby TheRumpledOne » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:27 pm

MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
Image


At first glance, my reaction is huh? I thought S&R lines were derived from candle closes. And I see conflict between: (1) 50% mark is S&R used when doubling position; and (2) S&R line is your average price.

If someone who understands this chart can speak in nongenious terms then I would appreciate an explanation.


If you double your position then your average price is the midpoint between your first and second order making a 50% RET your line of S&R...



"If a RED candle close OVER support then it is not support"

Are you referring to a short trade?

Once again, I am confused.

P.S. Where is the googletalk chat?
IT'S NOT WHAT YOU TRADE, IT'S HOW YOU TRADE IT!

Please do NOT PM me with trading or coding questions, post them in a thread.

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newark18
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Postby newark18 » Thu Jul 22, 2010 7:59 pm

MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
Image


At first glance, my reaction is huh? I thought S&R lines were derived from candle closes. And I see conflict between: (1) 50% mark is S&R used when doubling position; and (2) S&R line is your average price.

If someone who understands this chart can speak in nongenious terms then I would appreciate an explanation.


If you double your position then your average price is the midpoint between your first and second order making a 50% RET your line of S&R...


So I interpret what you wrote to mean that S&R lines are derived from your average price rather than how previous candles closed. I previously thought that we look to candle closes to derive our S&R lines and use them to protect our average price.



S&R does not exist, there is only what price is currently doing or not doing over a period of time that is relevant to you.


Then I must respectfully say that S&R is a complete misnomer.


"Price closes over a line that you believe to be S&R" -MO

:wink:


Of course. You know, that distinction would have been nice to know like 3 months and countless hours ago!
Failure is an opportunity to learn.

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es/pip
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Postby es/pip » Thu Jul 22, 2010 8:14 pm

newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
Image


At first glance, my reaction is huh? I thought S&R lines were derived from candle closes. And I see conflict between: (1) 50% mark is S&R used when doubling position; and (2) S&R line is your average price.

If someone who understands this chart can speak in nongenious terms then I would appreciate an explanation.


If you double your position then your average price is the midpoint between your first and second order making a 50% RET your line of S&R...


So I interpret what you wrote to mean that S&R lines are derived from your average price rather than how previous candles closed. I previously thought that we look to candle closes to derive our S&R lines and use them to protect our average price.



S&R does not exist, there is only what price is currently doing or not doing over a period of time that is relevant to you.


Then I must respectfully say that S&R is a complete misnomer.


"Price closes over a line that you believe to be S&R" -MO

:wink:


Of course. You know, that distinction would have been nice to know like 3 months and countless hours ago!


thats what it is has always been about---- from the very start

you can draw a zl here and i would draw it there

you can see a s/r here and i see it there

doesn't really matter

only thing that does matter---- is price closing relative to YOUR line---
Bend over and assume the position for another 4 years of hope and change.

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newark18
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Postby newark18 » Thu Jul 22, 2010 8:19 pm

es/pip wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
Image


At first glance, my reaction is huh? I thought S&R lines were derived from candle closes. And I see conflict between: (1) 50% mark is S&R used when doubling position; and (2) S&R line is your average price.

If someone who understands this chart can speak in nongenious terms then I would appreciate an explanation.


If you double your position then your average price is the midpoint between your first and second order making a 50% RET your line of S&R...


So I interpret what you wrote to mean that S&R lines are derived from your average price rather than how previous candles closed. I previously thought that we look to candle closes to derive our S&R lines and use them to protect our average price.



S&R does not exist, there is only what price is currently doing or not doing over a period of time that is relevant to you.


Then I must respectfully say that S&R is a complete misnomer.


"Price closes over a line that you believe to be S&R" -MO

:wink:


Of course. You know, that distinction would have been nice to know like 3 months and countless hours ago!


thats what it is has always been about---- from the very start

you can draw a zl here and i would draw it there

you can see a s/r here and i see it there

doesn't really matter

only thing that does matter---- is price closing relative to YOUR line---


I think slightly different interpretations of ZLs or S&R lines are different than S&R does not exist.
Failure is an opportunity to learn.

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es/pip
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Postby es/pip » Thu Jul 22, 2010 8:23 pm

newark18 wrote:
es/pip wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
newark18 wrote:
MightyOne wrote:
Image


At first glance, my reaction is huh? I thought S&R lines were derived from candle closes. And I see conflict between: (1) 50% mark is S&R used when doubling position; and (2) S&R line is your average price.

If someone who understands this chart can speak in nongenious terms then I would appreciate an explanation.


If you double your position then your average price is the midpoint between your first and second order making a 50% RET your line of S&R...


So I interpret what you wrote to mean that S&R lines are derived from your average price rather than how previous candles closed. I previously thought that we look to candle closes to derive our S&R lines and use them to protect our average price.



S&R does not exist, there is only what price is currently doing or not doing over a period of time that is relevant to you.


Then I must respectfully say that S&R is a complete misnomer.


"Price closes over a line that you believe to be S&R" -MO

:wink:


Of course. You know, that distinction would have been nice to know like 3 months and countless hours ago!


thats what it is has always been about---- from the very start

you can draw a zl here and i would draw it there

you can see a s/r here and i see it there

doesn't really matter

only thing that does matter---- is price closing relative to YOUR line---


I think slightly different interpretations of ZLs or S&R lines are different than S&R does not exist.


:oops:

i did not read that correctly

i will stay out of this discussion

i am not sure how s/r doesn't exist
Bend over and assume the position for another 4 years of hope and change.

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PTG
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Postby PTG » Thu Jul 22, 2010 11:25 pm

Apparently there is some confusion, where this really need not be the case. In fact, it is so simple that it becomes hard to explain. Let me try anyway.

Here is the picture again:
Image

This picture combines two things in one, namely a) the further the next candle intrudes into the range of the LRC (Long Range Candle) (aka pullback), the weaker the combination of the two becomes, and b) depending on where you define your S/R, you could increase the money you risk. The further price penetrates, the less extra you should risk, becuase the combination of the candles becomes weaker.

Re. b): the principle is to start with a risk of X pips in the morning. You gain e.g. 3X Pips, that you then can invest again. You play the money you gained in the market, in other words. In case you lose, you are back at 0. In case you win and make another RR of 3:1, you have 9X at your disposal.

The picture is related to this. It is also related to how severe the pullback is. The further the pullback, the weaker the case for a continuation of the previous direction, in the case of the picture to the upside.

In the extreme case it closes lower than 0%, in which case you want to look for trades in the other direction. In other words: you want to see a pullback that is as small as possible for a continuaton of the previous direction. The smaller the pullback, the more extra you can risk.

The S&R lines are personal choices. They don't differ from what are considered to be "normal" S&R. The truth of the matter is, that everybody will draw their own S&R lines. Whatever you do, it is subjective. At the end of the day, they are but lines in the sand; an objective limit where you base your decisions on. Price closes above or below any horizontal line you draw, no matter where. You act according to your defined rules in those cases, again and again.

The picture is related to a continuation to the upside (long). In case price does NOT close below the line in the sand, you add money proportional to the success rate of a pullback. The further the pullback, the lower the successrate, the less extra money you should add.

FYI here are a couple of pictures that are also related to this issue as well as the custom candles. All of this, my friends, is old wine in new bags.

Image

Image

Remember: a candle is just a candle. Price is fractal: two or three or Y candles are also just a (as in: one) candle. Take the open, high, low, close of any group of candles, and think of what it depicts: are the sellers in control, are the buyers in control, or is it neutral. Take the open, high, low, close of a particular timeframe, and you can draw a candle.

Hope this helps, and don't forget to go and search for yourself for the answers. You need to take responsibility of your life and therefore of your trading :wink:
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