Aliassmith Psychology 101 and other stuff

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gfg1
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Postby gfg1 » Sat Aug 14, 2010 12:37 pm

joksa, not to hijack alias' thread, but it looks like a rat entry based on the 15 minute chart with the 9:15 eastern bar closing around 109.60. entry would be on next bar at that point.

Sorry alias for any improper interpretation.

joksa44 wrote:Thanks for your answer! Please, could you show me smaller time frame chart marked with entry points. I tried to figured out 109.620, but i did not see :(
Thank you in advance!

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Postby aliassmith » Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:43 pm

gfg1 wrote:joksa, not to hijack alias' thread, but it looks like a rat entry based on the 15 minute chart with the 9:15 eastern bar closing around 109.60. entry would be on next bar at that point.

Sorry alias for any improper interpretation.

joksa44 wrote:Thanks for your answer! Please, could you show me smaller time frame chart marked with entry points. I tried to figured out 109.620, but i did not see :(
Thank you in advance!


Yes sir, zline failed then black candle, white candle entry. :)
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Postby aliassmith » Tue Aug 17, 2010 1:55 pm

Ya I figured out my psychological issue I was having. I was being too
greedy with each trade. I forgot to take each trade on it's own merit.

For example this trade I entered long on a breakout after a rejection.
Price moved up and I started to think about where my exit should be.
The upper red line is an extreme. I know extremes are very reactive
so I take profit close to the tops and not get too greedy.

As you can see it did turn around at that point and I would have had to
go back to almost no profit. :shock:
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Postby aliassmith » Tue Aug 17, 2010 2:20 pm

aliassmith wrote:Ya I figured out my psychological issue I was having. I was being too
greedy with each trade. I forgot to take each trade on it's own merit.

For example this trade I entered long on a breakout after a rejection.
Price moved up and I started to think about where my exit should be.
The upper red line is an extreme. I know extremes are very reactive
so I take profit close to the tops and not get too greedy.

As you can see it did turn around at that point and I would have had to
go back to almost no profit. :shock:


Would have been zeroed out! Instead got a 3:1 return. Think I need
to evaluate reward:risk on each trade more than I was.
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Postby aliassmith » Fri Aug 20, 2010 1:04 pm

I like when it works and I don't get to greedy. :)
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Postby Brookmyre » Mon Aug 23, 2010 1:37 am

aliassmith wrote:
gfg1 wrote:joksa, not to hijack alias' thread, but it looks like a rat entry based on the 15 minute chart with the 9:15 eastern bar closing around 109.60. entry would be on next bar at that point.

Sorry alias for any improper interpretation.

joksa44 wrote:Thanks for your answer! Please, could you show me smaller time frame chart marked with entry points. I tried to figured out 109.620, but i did not see :(
Thank you in advance!


Yes sir, zline failed then black candle, white candle entry. :)


Hi Alias...I was wondering at what point you consider the zline failing...ie the close over of your bottom orange line? the close over of the previous candle extreme?the close over of the previous candle close? the close over of the 50% of the momo? I reaslise in this example the white candle has closed over all of those lines Im just curious as to if you have a particular line in mind?

TIA
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Postby aliassmith » Mon Aug 23, 2010 1:35 pm

Brookmyre wrote:
aliassmith wrote:
gfg1 wrote:joksa, not to hijack alias' thread, but it looks like a rat entry based on the 15 minute chart with the 9:15 eastern bar closing around 109.60. entry would be on next bar at that point.

Sorry alias for any improper interpretation.

joksa44 wrote:Thanks for your answer! Please, could you show me smaller time frame chart marked with entry points. I tried to figured out 109.620, but i did not see :(
Thank you in advance!


Yes sir, zline failed then black candle, white candle entry. :)


Hi Alias...I was wondering at what point you consider the zline failing...ie the close over of your bottom orange line? the close over of the previous candle extreme?the close over of the previous candle close? the close over of the 50% of the momo? I reaslise in this example the white candle has closed over all of those lines Im just curious as to if you have a particular line in mind?

TIA


Consider the big black candle down zline. A big white candle came back
and closed above and then the small black candle didn't make much of
an attempt to go short so I considered it failed.
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Money Management for Short Term Trading

Postby aliassmith » Thu Oct 28, 2010 2:05 pm

I have been lurking around since my last post and "grinding it out" in the
trenches. :)

I believe I have something note worthy to share and give back to the
Kreslik community where I have been given so much.

A lot of the MightyOne posts rattle around in my head, over and over. I
have thought countless hours on his info. The parts about poker and
his last order adding process for long term trading stuck with me the
most.

The thing is I don't trade long term charts, but I know that MightyOne's
lessons can be adapted to short term trading. So I will share my adaptation
for those of us that are not "power traders" and willing to risk it all on
a single roll of the dice.

More Risk is More Risk
I remember this but didn't understand it for awhile. I did finally get the
meaning behind MightyOne's encrypted lesson. You will see as I move on
what it means.

I now envision trading as a poker game that has players available at any
level of play you desire. All the players sit at the virtual table of forex and
battle it out hand after hand and day after day. Each player having his own
style of play to create an edge.

So my poker roll is $10,000US and if I lose it I'll have to go make
deliveries to get a new roll like the guy in the movie Rounders. Now
who wants to do that? The focus is survival and profitability.

Phase 1 I buy into a game with $400 (4%). I get into a small stakes game
using 4:1 to 6.25:1 leverage and grind it out until I make $400 in profit.
What did I just do there? I took their money. So now I use their money
to take even more of their money.

Phase 2 I buy into a game with their $400 and get into a little higher stakes
game. My leverage will be 8:1 to 12.5:1 and I'll grind it out until I make $800 more.

Phase 3 I buy into a game with their $1200 for an even higher stakes
game. The leverage will be 16:1 to 25:1 and I grind it out until I make
$1600 more.

Phase 4 I buy into a game for their $2800 for an even higher stakes
game. The leverage will be 32:1 to 50:1 and I grind it out until I make
$3200 more.

The Poker Tournament is finished!

If you add it up I'll have took $6000 of their money and made it mine.
That is 60% return on my capital for a 4% risk. :)

Something to be clear about is you must start back at phase 1 when your
profit cushion is gone, you complete all the phases, or you are having a
hard time at the current phase and don't feel comfortable.

I above is an example and should be "tweaked" to fit individual styles of
trading.

If you are unclear about the More risk is More risk comment think about
this. I risk 4% of my capital which is about 80 to 100 pips to make 80 to
100 pips in phase 1. From phase 2 on I risk 0% of my capital to make the
additional 56%. :idea:
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Postby es/pip » Sat Oct 30, 2010 1:29 am

Trading going good?

sounds like it is :D
Bend over and assume the position for another 4 years of hope and change.

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Re: Money Management for Short Term Trading

Postby cwn6161 » Sat Oct 30, 2010 4:38 am

aliassmith wrote:I have been lurking around since my last post and "grinding it out" in the
trenches. :)

I believe I have something note worthy to share and give back to the
Kreslik community where I have been given so much.

A lot of the MightyOne posts rattle around in my head, over and over. I
have thought countless hours on his info. The parts about poker and
his last order adding process for long term trading stuck with me the
most.

The thing is I don't trade long term charts, but I know that MightyOne's
lessons can be adapted to short term trading. So I will share my adaptation
for those of us that are not "power traders" and willing to risk it all on
a single roll of the dice.

More Risk is More Risk
I remember this but didn't understand it for awhile. I did finally get the
meaning behind MightyOne's encrypted lesson. You will see as I move on
what it means.

I now envision trading as a poker game that has players available at any
level of play you desire. All the players sit at the virtual table of forex and
battle it out hand after hand and day after day. Each player having his own
style of play to create an edge.

So my poker roll is $10,000US and if I lose it I'll have to go make
deliveries to get a new roll like the guy in the movie Rounders. Now
who wants to do that? The focus is survival and profitability.

Phase 1 I buy into a game with $400 (4%). I get into a small stakes game
using 4:1 to 6.25:1 leverage and grind it out until I make $400 in profit.
What did I just do there? I took their money. So now I use their money
to take even more of their money.

Phase 2 I buy into a game with their $400 and get into a little higher stakes
game. My leverage will be 8:1 to 12.5:1 and I'll grind it out until I make $800 more.

Phase 3 I buy into a game with their $1200 for an even higher stakes
game. The leverage will be 16:1 to 25:1 and I grind it out until I make
$1600 more.

Phase 4 I buy into a game for their $2800 for an even higher stakes
game. The leverage will be 32:1 to 50:1 and I grind it out until I make
$3200 more.

The Poker Tournament is finished!

If you add it up I'll have took $6000 of their money and made it mine.
That is 60% return on my capital for a 4% risk. :)

Something to be clear about is you must start back at phase 1 when your
profit cushion is gone, you complete all the phases, or you are having a
hard time at the current phase and don't feel comfortable.

I above is an example and should be "tweaked" to fit individual styles of
trading.

If you are unclear about the More risk is More risk comment think about
this. I risk 4% of my capital which is about 80 to 100 pips to make 80 to
100 pips in phase 1. From phase 2 on I risk 0% of my capital to make the
additional 56%. :idea:


I think I'm a tad confused about the risk portions. Below is the thought process in my head - where am I going wrong?

P1 - risk 4% ($400) to make $400 in 80-100 pips. Once made, close trade.

P2 - risk 8% (really 4% is original capital, 4% is profit) to make $800 in 80-100 pips. Once made, close trade.

P3 - risk 16% ( 4% original capital, 12% profit) to make $1600 in 80-100 pips. Once made, close trade.

P4 - risk 32% ( 4% original capital, 28% profit) to make $3200 in 80-100 pips. Once made, close trade.

Because you are increasing leverage and your stops/targets are the same amount, is the only thing changing your entry size? And in that case, isn't it 4% risk each time of base capital?

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