Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

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aliassmith
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:20 pm

aliassmith wrote:How do you get high RRR on your trades?

Its a balance of previous price action and current price action.

Pretty much every successful trader uses price history to determine liquidity levels ,trends, and/or some indicator math.

So say your target is 30 pips away you have information based on older history. Now your recent price action suggest you need a 30 pips SL. Well you are looking at a 1R trade.

So if you get a market defining stop loss of 20 pips you get 1.5R this goes down to 5 pips SL where you get 6R.

The market will give you the possibilities if you can see them. SL that makes sense coupled with historical targets. You will also need the leverage to make some tighter SL work out depending on your TF and % risked.

$100,000
1% is $1000
$1000÷5 pips = $200/pip
$200÷$10 = 20 lots on EURUSD
$1000×6R = $6000 or 6%

Analysis, Math, and Application


Examples of RRR manipulation.

A single trade opportunity on the GBPUSDM15 during London
A long trade shows itself with an MA bias, a candle bias, and a pullback
The target is near where the tan box is placed.
There are 2 charts with 2 entry options where the price crosses the purple entry line above that green arrow.
There was a 2R options and a 3R option
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aliassmith
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:06 pm

For all those high risk account flippers out there Ill paraphrase something that MightyOne posted about account management.

$500 start
Turn it into $5000
Take out $2500
Turn $2500 into $25k
Take out $12.5k
Turn $12.5k into $125k
Etc.

You will probably blow your account up at some point so at least you'll have some fall back money.

From my experience you need some process for gearing up and back down to survive. You cant gear up forever and not expert the black swan to get you.
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:32 am

Inquiring minds want to know!

Why do I say that 1% risk is high enough per trade?

One reason I advocate using 1% max risk is because many new traders out there can see my posts. I don't want them to think trading 2% or more is a good normal process for a "beginner". It can lead to wiped out accounts.

Why else is 1% or less a good idea?
Many traders don't have or haven't collected enough data to know if they can/should trade with higher risk. If you have hundreds or thousands of trades you would have enough data to input into a Risk of Ruin Calculator or a Monty Carlo Simulator. So my message is Don't out risk your skill level.

My belief is that a trader should protect their capital. The profits are secondary.
Example:
You are a Risk Manager for $1,000,000
You risk 5% per trade and lose 4 trades in a row
Now you are down 20% or $200,000
If you were trading 1% risk per trade and lost 4 in a row
You would be down 4% or $40,000

In the end it depends on what your business model/Trading plan contains
There are various ways to protect your capital and also ways to gear your risk up and down while still protecting your capital.
These ideas have been shared by myself or MightyOne along with some others on this forum.

edit: I forgot that another factor to consider when choosing a risk percentage is trade frequency. Generally speaking if your trade frequency is low such as making 1 swing trade off the H4 chart per week then a higher risk could be considered. This is only if your trading skills allow it.
Last edited by aliassmith on Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Fri Sep 18, 2020 7:47 am

I heard someone likes PIN Bars
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby LeMercenaire » Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:45 pm

Darling of The Rodeo...

EA Dead Horse 15-min Target #1

EURAUDM15backontherodeocircuit18thSept2020.png
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I go away, come back, pick up the first one I see and off it goes. Clockwork.

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aliassmith
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:54 pm

LeMercenaire wrote:Darling of The Rodeo...

EA Dead Horse 15-min Target #1

EURAUDM15backontherodeocircuit18thSept2020.png

I go away, come back, pick up the first one I see and off it goes. Clockwork.


Look who got back on the horse
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby JESGPY » Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:14 pm

Nice!

Was sleeping at that time.. :( :( :(


aliassmith wrote:I heard someone likes PIN Bars

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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby JESGPY » Fri Sep 18, 2020 6:47 pm

Why do think you will blow the account.
I did because I lost my mind. Other wise I think it would not happen.




aliassmith wrote:For all those high risk account flippers out there Ill paraphrase something that MightyOne posted about account management.

$500 start
Turn it into $5000
Take out $2500
Turn $2500 into $25k
Take out $12.5k
Turn $12.5k into $125k
Etc.

You will probably blow your account up at some point so at least you'll have some fall back money.

From my experience you need some process for gearing up and back down to survive. You cant gear up forever and not expert the black swan to get you.

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aliassmith
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:09 pm

JESGPY wrote:Why do think you will blow the account.
I did because I lost my mind. Other wise I think it would not happen.




aliassmith wrote:For all those high risk account flippers out there Ill paraphrase something that MightyOne posted about account management.

$500 start
Turn it into $5000
Take out $2500
Turn $2500 into $25k
Take out $12.5k
Turn $12.5k into $125k
Etc.

You will probably blow your account up at some point so at least you'll have some fall back money.

From my experience you need some process for gearing up and back down to survive. You cant gear up forever and not expert the black swan to get you.


Reasons:
Ego
False confidence
Human error
Poor analysis
Some systems work until they don't
Law of averages
Black swans
Left a trade on and fell asleep
Computer crash and forgot stop loss
Natural disaster

Just saying I've seen people in high leverage unprotected positions get wiped out. I had it happen in 2008 or 2009 cant remember.

I've also tested varies things and saw the similar outcomes.

Thats why if I trade high leverage I'll use OPM and various gearing up and down methods. I've discussed with the prince of kreslik, MightyOne and he said he would start with less than 1% to add zeros.

I just seen a young trader make over 30% this week trading 1% or less. I think he will make over $1,000,000 in the next 12 months.

You dont have to do anything I say. I just would ask that you judge your performance and your system's performance with a critical eye.

Run Monty Carlos simulation. As you collect more data retest. Protect your capital. Stay in the game forever.
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Re: Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

Postby aliassmith » Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:44 pm

Testing new image compression.
3R on DOW m5
Entry where cross hair is

Editor is called Lit Photo on Google play store.
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