Aliassmith Beats a "Dead Horse"

[aliassmith]

For the EU M5 traders out there.
Blue lines are previous S/D areas from my perspective.
About 10R+ if you keep score that way or 60+ pips

Bias can be whatever you find that works.
On my chart The BIAS IS THE 20 SMA SLOPE
Sloping down is down bias
Sloping up is up bias
No real slope then no bias

Preferred trades are pullbacks from under a down slope or pullback from the top of a up slope.

If the 20 SMA is a Mean/Average, then we can see price diverts from the average and regresses back to the average.
This style of trading is trading the diversion phase after a regression phase.
The only purpose of the SMA is being a visual reference. It is not a trigger.

Triggers happen after/during "Patterns", right before a diversion phase.

A BIAS is only a clue, or a bread crumb in a trail of breadcrumbs.
What if there is a MACRO BIAS rolled into the trail?
What if there is a MICRO Bias rolled into the trail?

It could mean more confirmation or maybe Higher R outcomes.

Trading can be a complex or simple as your brain can handle. If you have the ability of being a profitable trader, it will happen because you matched a profitable system with your ability to execute that system.

QUOTE -- "That figure came on the back of a solid year in which Citadel's multi-strategy operation returned 26.3%."

Think of that when 10% a month isn't enough! Real Rocket Scientists and Quants work at these Hedge funds.
Your advantage in the market is being small so you are more nimble and generous Leverage.

OK step off soapbox <<<

Not trading EU but I suppose the other 90% of the post still applies , so I've got 2 questions:

"Sloping down is down bias
Sloping up is up bias
No real slope then no bias"

By no real slope you mean like when the slope is actually flat (or the 'eq' color in the colored MA). Or by no real slope you mean when the 'angle' is weak, even if it's red/green?

A BIAS is only a clue, or a bread crumb in a trail of breadcrumbs.
What if there is a MACRO BIAS rolled into the trail?
What if there is a MICRO Bias rolled into the trail?

Do you have examples of what you'd use or classify as micro and macro biases that you use for the deadhorse trades? I think this might help me to 'grade trades' and see which could be better than others.

Slope is nothing when it is basically flat. The indicator is a visual reference for something you should look at and make your own decision. Various angles and duration of slope can be backtested.

Slope can also be judged from the context of PA. Whipping PA can give red and green SMA for short periods.

This is how I see things. Others may think differently.

[Don_xyZ]

For the EU M5 traders out there.
Blue lines are previous S/D areas from my perspective.
About 10R+ if you keep score that way or 60+ pips

Bias can be whatever you find that works.
On my chart The BIAS IS THE 20 SMA SLOPE
Sloping down is down bias
Sloping up is up bias
No real slope then no bias

Preferred trades are pullbacks from under a down slope or pullback from the top of a up slope.

If the 20 SMA is a Mean/Average, then we can see price diverts from the average and regresses back to the average.
This style of trading is trading the diversion phase after a regression phase.
The only purpose of the SMA is being a visual reference. It is not a trigger.

Triggers happen after/during "Patterns", right before a diversion phase.

A BIAS is only a clue, or a bread crumb in a trail of breadcrumbs.
What if there is a MACRO BIAS rolled into the trail?
What if there is a MICRO Bias rolled into the trail?

It could mean more confirmation or maybe Higher R outcomes.

Trading can be a complex or simple as your brain can handle. If you have the ability of being a profitable trader, it will happen because you matched a profitable system with your ability to execute that system.

QUOTE -- "That figure came on the back of a solid year in which Citadel's multi-strategy operation returned 26.3%."

Think of that when 10% a month isn't enough! Real Rocket Scientists and Quants work at these Hedge funds.
Your advantage in the market is being small so you are more nimble and generous Leverage.

OK step off soapbox <<<

Not trading EU but I suppose the other 90% of the post still applies , so I've got 2 questions:

"Sloping down is down bias
Sloping up is up bias
No real slope then no bias"

By no real slope you mean like when the slope is actually flat (or the 'eq' color in the colored MA). Or by no real slope you mean when the 'angle' is weak, even if it's red/green?

A BIAS is only a clue, or a bread crumb in a trail of breadcrumbs.
What if there is a MACRO BIAS rolled into the trail?
What if there is a MICRO Bias rolled into the trail?

Do you have examples of what you'd use or classify as micro and macro biases that you use for the deadhorse trades? I think this might help me to 'grade trades' and see which could be better than others.

Real slope is another word to describe apparent trend. When the slope is not at "acceptable" angle taking into account the surrounding market condition then you should not take the trade. IgazI already mentioned this but in case you missed it, a Moving Average is a line of a bigger tf so to speak so if you are still confused about the angle on the current tf then you can zoom out to a bigger tf and see where the MA on that tf is heading. It might be flat in small tf but it means down if its sliding down in the bigger tf. This is another way to use the MA. However, if you are basing your slope on the current tf exclusively then you need to set a standard on how much it has to slope to be called acceptable. For example, if you zoom out your chart to the max on the current tf and then zoom in 2 times and the slope is about 45 or 30 degree then it might be acceptable to take a trade. If not, then do nothing. If you are zooming it 3 times instead of 2 then maybe a different angle is acceptable. After you jot down this strict rule then it's only a matter of getting used to it.

I don't have an answer for the Deadhorse specific answer but in general, you will often see a conflict between 2 biases and you must know what to do about this situation. For example, the current tf gives you bullish bias and the bigger tf is showing a bearish bias. What will you do? Which trade will you take? Bullish only or bearish only or take both? And how do you go about it? Also, it can be that in the same tf you will get 2 biases, a bigger move bias and a smaller move bias. Again, what will you do about this? This is also one of the situations that I take into consideration when I do my trade grading.

[Yirbu]

For the EU M5 traders out there.
Blue lines are previous S/D areas from my perspective.
About 10R+ if you keep score that way or 60+ pips

Bias can be whatever you find that works.
On my chart The BIAS IS THE 20 SMA SLOPE
Sloping down is down bias
Sloping up is up bias
No real slope then no bias

Preferred trades are pullbacks from under a down slope or pullback from the top of a up slope.

If the 20 SMA is a Mean/Average, then we can see price diverts from the average and regresses back to the average.
This style of trading is trading the diversion phase after a regression phase.
The only purpose of the SMA is being a visual reference. It is not a trigger.

Triggers happen after/during "Patterns", right before a diversion phase.

A BIAS is only a clue, or a bread crumb in a trail of breadcrumbs.
What if there is a MACRO BIAS rolled into the trail?
What if there is a MICRO Bias rolled into the trail?

It could mean more confirmation or maybe Higher R outcomes.

Trading can be a complex or simple as your brain can handle. If you have the ability of being a profitable trader, it will happen because you matched a profitable system with your ability to execute that system.

QUOTE -- "That figure came on the back of a solid year in which Citadel's multi-strategy operation returned 26.3%."

Think of that when 10% a month isn't enough! Real Rocket Scientists and Quants work at these Hedge funds.
Your advantage in the market is being small so you are more nimble and generous Leverage.

OK step off soapbox <<<

This is amazing.
I had to digest your post because I felt bad about my trades last Friday but I didn't knew why.
I took all the exact trades you marked on the chart +1 more. (and that was a loss)

Great to see that I am able to find the good trades.
Unfortunately I didn't get the 10R+ but just over 5R. This also was a nice score.

EURUSDM50722.png (89.34 KiB) Viewed 1155 times

The reason I didn't have a good feeling was that I was already analyzing the whole week on the Friday and wasn't happy with my results so I forgot to see my Friday results. They were good...full stop.

What irritated me was that I didn't follow my plan for the week...Monday and Tuesday I was trading other pairs and made some losses.
Tuesday lunchtime when I found out that I wasn't following my super simple plan; (only trade EU and no trades during lunchtime)...the damage was done.... I mean, how hard can it be?

Next week I'll try again but now with new confidence...I know to find the trades and I AM profitable...I just sabotage myself by trading other stuff and throw my profits away.

The S/R lines can help me finding better exit points. Sometimes the obvious doesn't pop in my head but once I know it....

I see I also need to work on better/sharper entries but I might do that after I am able to follow my super simple plan.
Some trades can make 3 times more just by sharpening the entries.

Thx for taking the time to explain!

[CodyBranon12]

Such a good tactic. I will definitely try this one. I am a newbie at trading, but already had some bad experiences of losing money. Maybe some sort of suggestions on what should I do to predict graphics more correctly?

[aliassmith]

Such a good tactic. I will definitely try this one. I am a newbie at trading, but already had some bad experiences of losing money. Maybe some sort of suggestions on what should I do to predict graphics more correctly?

Trying a method isn't what most need. Commitment to the method is what will get you success. Almost perfect execution of 1 method, 1 session period, 1 pair.

There are many ways to be successful. Only when you focus on one will it pay off.

Btw don't use money until you get good at demo, then scale up as you get better.

[Yirbu]

Yesterday I didn't have a good day trading but I fixed it today.
Looking at Monday I guess I wasn't feeling confident enough and I closed a couple of trades before price was able to go to my target. Hadn't I interfered I would have also had a loss but maybe half. It still is a difficult topic for me. Do I interfere or not? My stats still show 50% of the time my interventions are valid/not valid....So it actually doesn't matter what I do...I think I'll keep doing it so I can try to become better at closing a trade early.

220725 - EURUSDM5.png (155.48 KiB) Viewed 942 times

My first trade was ok-ish...I took a bit over 1.5R. I was trading the inside bar but chose for the wider SL.
Next 4 trades all came back at me fast and I decided to bail at about -0.5R. Last trade just rushed down and gave me a full loss.
I decided to quit because I had a feeling price was moving different...or maybe it was just me feeling different.

Today was different:

220726 - EURUSDM5.png (114.29 KiB) Viewed 942 times

My first trade was BE.
It traded into a previous SD (the red line ) and I decided to see if it would hold. Price came back and because my entry had quite some slippage I got out at BE.
Second trade was a loss (nearly -1R) when price came back I closed the trade not to have a full loss. Price reversed....
Decided to jump back in...when price stalled at the previous SD line I closed 2/3th of my position and was able to let the rest run down to the daily ADR line 75pips down I think on average I took 4+R or so.
When price stalled at the red line some inside bars were created and I went short for 2R
Last trade...just when I was in. my trade the doorbel rang so I set my SL to BE and obviously got hit. No problem.

There might be something in the US session but I'm always extra cautious if price has reached the daily adr.

My Super Simple Plan was: Only trade EU and no trading during lunchtime = Passed

btw: the second thin grey line is just a 20sma shifted +1. It was/is just an experiment

[aliassmith]

20 sma
20 sma shifted
21 ema
20 ema
Etc.
Put several on there you'll see they are all about the same over time.

Looks like your 2 day average is pretty good. Keep practicing.

[Yirbu]

20 sma
20 sma shifted
21 ema
20 ema
Etc.
Put several on there you'll see they are all about the same over time.

Looks like your 2 day average is pretty good. Keep practicing.

Actually I didn't want to see if the shifted sma is better. The 20 sma is good enough. I wanted to see if the shifted could give me a heads up on a possible reversal. But I don't think it adds something because it's too slow.

Indeed, I am also happy with the result of the past 2 days. thx

[Yirbu]

Wow...the market already killed me during the London session.
My first two trades were not great but I don't think they were really bad either.

After that it was clear the market wasn't going anywhere but I was already negative 2R.
Tried an inside bar a bit later but price spiked back and took me out.
Hmmmm....
when price came back I got in but price went down again and took me out at BE.

In hindsight Market wasn't going anywhere and it looks like a nightmare but it took me 2 trades to figure that out.
Frustrating...

[aliassmith]

Wow...the market already killed me during the London session.
My first two trades were not great but I don't think they were really bad either.

After that it was clear the market wasn't going anywhere but I was already negative 2R.
Tried an inside bar a bit later but price spiked back and took me out.
Hmmmm....
when price came back I got in but price went down again and took me out at BE.

In hindsight Market wasn't going anywhere and it looks like a nightmare but it took me 2 trades to figure that out.
Frustrating...

With experience you'll learn to identify market conditions.

Market reversed into a range