2012 DRAIN THE BANKS LIKE A RAT .... CONTINUED

[Erykos]

Short/ buy trigger 5 points.

5 points= 5 pips? Previously I read something about 20 pips. 20 pips from Rat Zone? I don't understand. Where price must be to click short/ long position? 20 pips from Rat Zone? No.
In my previous chart at the daily high/ low are two lines of dots. Between the two lines is colored rectangle. Are these colorful rectangles mean Rat Zone?

[Karma]

The trigger line is a customizable distance away. I think it defaults 20 but the picture you posted showed 5 unless i'm mistaken

The idea is that price will often move away from the daily high and low, the trigger is just to give you a window of entry

all of which can easily be imagined without an indicator

[Erykos]

And in the distance of 5 or 20 pips max I'll see candles to enter, yes?

I interpreted it good?

[Karma]

No system is fool proof but ideally you are looking to buy into the lowest price possible

A good interpretation

I recommend you read the never lose again thread

[Erykos]

Thank you so much.

And what with EMA chanel? Do you use it? In this system is EMA chanel?

[nickohorny]

Good day TRO and all...

I am back once again... not that you would remember me, I was just a passive noob who asked questions here and studied from here for a long time when I was back in England, anyway, I have been on a travelling break since June, hopping around Southeast Asia, and am currently living in Bangkok about to gain work as an English Teacher.

However, after having time off from my trading practice, I am now dying to get myself back into the swing of things - again lol
I studied, practiced, system hopped, did a lot to gain a better understanding in TRO's methods. I just wanted to know why this thread has been so inactive? it was always busy before, are people still using this method in their trading? TRO stopped trading these days?

Why I failed I still need to understand, the approach and trigger is simple, I think my problem was my exit strategy and never knowing when to take profits or how much to quit by each day - something I hope to master with myself.. I am also still unsure of my best trading approach to take, whether to try again with this DTB like a rat or use the buyzone as a green rat.
hmmmmmm

Hey, lastly, anyone living within Bangkok and fancies meeting up to discuss some ideas would be awesome!

All the best with your trading.
NIck

[adrian2012]

Here's a question I have, would anyone know how to answer it or point me in the right direction:

Lets say I trade using the Rat Zone Reversal method and I'm looking to trade 1 lot trying to take 5 pips initially. Is there a way to statistically determine if it would be better to split up that trade into 2 parts, one gunning a take profit of 5 pips (perhaps .5 lot) and another (the other .5 lot) having a trailing stop of 5 pips in case price explodes in my favor? I'm trying to balance taking the profit that I can off the table as well as not leave any money behind.

I know there's the FreqDist_Range indicator, for the GBPUSD for example, for the last 5000 bars, on the M5 chart, it reads that 97%+ bars are in the 0-9 bar range category. Is there an indicator that tells me the frequency of consecutive up or down bars? Even if there were, I'm not sure that would answer my question but it would hint at it.

Any insight would be much appreciated, perhaps this question will answer itself as I get more experience.

[TheRumpledOne]

"Is there an indicator that tells me the frequency of consecutive up or down bars?"

Yes, I wrote a bar count frequency distribution... that's how I came up with the BUZZARD REVERSAL.

[JoeTRoscoe]

TRO, I am from ET. I have followed you with interest and am considering a donation for your indicators. How soon can I get them if I donate? You have done great work, and persecution for that is a natural consequence. Glad to have found your home site.

[adrian2012]

So I thought about my question a bit longer. Here's my stab at it, lets say we have the following 5m candles:

Bar.A ---> Open(1.3100) High(1.3108) Low(1.3096) Close(1.3100)
Bar.B ---> Open(1.3100) High(1.3102) Low(1.3095) Close(1.3096)
Bar.C ---> Open(1.3096) High(1.3108) Low(1.3092) Close(1.3092)
Bar.D ---> Open(1.3092) High(1.3110) Low(1.3092) Close(1.3110)

If I opened a LONG trade at the start of Bar.A, at some point, price went against me by 4 pips (see the Low).
By the end of Bar.C, we see that out of those three bars the lowest low that was made was 1.3092 and price went against me by 8 pips. So from Bar.A to Bar.C, in the worst case, price went against me by 8 pips in the worst case.

What I then looked at in my spreadsheet was, whats the average worst case that I would see in my data of price going against me after 1, 2, 3...12 bars if I open up a trade on any given bar. I looked at both long and shorts, the results are about the same.

I grabbed 27k bars from the GBPUSD MT4 data I had from my terminal (I know, not the best...) to see what I came up with and here's what I got:

Going LONG
1 bar low 2.3
2 bar low 3.3
3 bar low 4
4 bar low 4.6
5 bar low 5.2
6 bar low 5.6
7 bar low 6.1
8 bar low 6.5
9 bar low 6.8
10 bar low 7.2
11 bar low 7.5
12 bar low 7.9

Going SHORT
1 bar high 2.4
2 bar high 3.3
3 bar high 4.1
4 bar high 4.7
5 bar high 5.3
6 bar high 5.8
7 bar high 6.2
8 bar high 6.7
9 bar high 7.1
10 bar high 7.4
11 bar high 7.8
12 bar high 8.1

I'm thinking that if I open a trade at the start of a H1 candle on the 5m time frame and I say "I'm willing to hold out on my trade for at least 6 bars," then I might conclude given my data, on average the worst case price movement against me by bar 6 will be 5.6 pips (going long) so maybe I'll put my trailing stop at 6.0 or 6.5 pips away in case price moves in my favor and I'm trying to avoid getting stopped out too early. If I set it 6.5, then maybe I can survive by the end of bar 8 to try and catch as much as I can with the trailing stop. If my trailing stop was set to 4, I don't think I could survive past bar 3 on average (assuming my trade was in profit already of course).

The spreadsheet doesn't look to see if my trades would be in any profit, I'm just wanted to see what the worst case price retracement was. Thoughts anyone?

I can't post big files here so I dropped it into FileDropper, click here for the Excel file:

http://www.filedropper.com/trailingstopanalysisgunu