News's Chin Stroke Delight

[newscalper]

So let's get to the bottom of this.

Purpose of thread: a journey of massive chin stroking proportions. Let's see those mandibles shine.

I will be trading what is left of my tiny 500 OANDA account which is down approx 10%.


So here is trade number 1.

See how price has already risen, a LOT. by the time the bar has changed black. This is not a complaint, perish the thought, but a mere observation that hindsight coulda, shoulda wouldas w.r.t near-to bar formations on these charts are, irrelevent Unless you're MO, you don't know how to read these things any better than I.
Hence, no hindsight will be allowed in this thread. Live calls only.

I have yet to see how to react to the bars in real time - whether this thing works on the close of a bar (but the theory is that closes are not relevent as they are random). Point of logic, in that case the high and low of the bar are random too and all points between. So what is the basis for analysis as bar formations must be too, so really I'm trading an MA cross here aren't I? Some more things for me to ponder

Tada: It's all chuffin random isn't it??

So here is a long entry, reasoning: look at the daily chart. Trend is your friend and all that rubbish.

Bar formation, low, inside bar, break to the upside. This formation, on the face of it looks OK BUT hindsight on these charts is not possible. The bars DO NOT show where price actually was.

Why the hell am I going long into that when there's a downside swing? Because I see 'traditional' patterns fail as often as work. Also, plenty of reversals occur without the inside bar pattern too but that's what I'll stick with for the time being.

Using my primitive understanding of space (the fibo tool while great works with fixed sizes, you've got infinitely adjustable size with OANDA and I won't be re-sizing when something goes against, I'lll be in and out. Why? Because again logic dictates with sizing up that as you add, if you let price come back you also lose as fast as you can gain, there's no getting around that. So on a succesful run, if one occurs, it will be enter, profit, pause, resize, enter etc. Nothing fancy.

So here I'm using 40 pips space off yesterdays low.

Red line is my LIS.
1% acct risk (actually a bit more) = 5 quid over 40 pips giving me a size of 0.01: 1000 in OANDA speak.

Chart


Position, lotsize, expansion


And wait

[newscalper]

Reversal forming, if this bar stays red
Still above my LIS but as I'm in loss ATM maybe reason to close

Edit and on the next bar opening price goes south 30 pips within about 2 minutes. Bar is red but body still above my line and I'm supposed to be waiting for the bar to close? who knows.
With this volatility I imagine I will see some profit when I come back or all my space and more wiped out

[newscalper]

End of bar. OK so far
Yes I have looked at the underlying bars and know perfectly well what is supposed to have taken place
Got to eat and go do some yoga which will take longer than an hour. When I come back I will see what the situation is

[newscalper]

Well, maybe should have taken profit when that big bar shot up but..if you do that you never catch a runner and...no idea what an exit signal is with these bars anyway
This could be shaping up for a reversal

But the red bar is like that on the open, do you trade these things on the open or close of the bar? Buggered if I know. Will hold for now.

[newscalper]

Out for a small loss - that's a reversal signal.
Starting balance: 446
Started with 1% risk space (just over as 1% is 4.46, used 5)
Loss 10p with interest
Risk space reduced to 4.36

[Karma]

Especially when you are this close

You should trade the highwater amount of your account

($500 in this instance)

that way you aren't set back too badly by a loss or two

You definitely had opportunity to close some good money off that trade though

[newscalper]

Especially when you are this close

You should trade the highwater amount of your account

($500 in this instance)

that way you aren't set back too badly by a loss or two

You definitely had opportunity to close some good money off that trade though

Language difference: don't understand what you mean.

re opportunity, there's opportunity to cut while in slight profit on most trades, hence you miss all the big runs. the trade didn't make 1:1 at its peak, cut or run? only indication to cut is these bar formations and one to cut didnt occur until later.
As I said in the 1st post, no coulda woulda shoulda. Hindsight knows all.

[Karma]

Rather than lowering your lot size everytime you lose a trade (even if just by fractions)

You should trade your original deposit size up until a reasonable point

If you've lost less than 10% it's not worth lowering your initial lot size over. That will make it take longer to get back to 0

I hope that makes sense

[newscalper]

Hmm
Interesting

[newscalper]

Rather than lowering your lot size everytime you lose a trade (even if just by fractions)

You should trade your original deposit size up until a reasonable point

If you've lost less than 10% it's not worth lowering your initial lot size over. That will make it take longer to get back to 0

I hope that makes sense

That's fair enough , I wasn't going to resize no a 10p loss anyway