Anti-Fragility

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The Predictability of Unpredictability

Author of "The Black Swan" Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses new ideas

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To give an example and to show the nonlinearity, it is more harmful to jump once from 100m than 100 times from 1m.

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"Uncertainty makes mistakes costly, and thus both businesses and governments should remain small."

"The models were flawed as they don't combine risk and growth - to get rich you must survive."

"The result of this theory is that large events, large organisations and large governments should be avoided. "Too big to fail" is catastrophic, and Taleb is firmly in favour of smaller organisations - on a moral level (it smaller societies you are close to the result of your decisions and so may feel shame) and an economic level (the cost of liquidating one large bank is far more than the cost of liquidating ten banks one tenth of the size of the large bank)."

"Antifragile events are convex. Taleb believes that bottom-up structures are convex, while top-down dictated structures are concave. We cannot effectively design systems as we cannot fully understand them, and so there will always be more harm than good."