HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market Analysis And News.

[HFM_Official]

Date: 6th January 2025.

The NASDAQ Rebounds As Investors Get Ready For Earnings Season!

The NASDAQ jumped more than 1.65% on Friday after 5 days of consecutive declines. The decline was primarily due to investors opting to take advantage of the discounted price ahead of this week’s earnings season. Earnings season is due to start this Friday with the banking sector. However, is there still downside risk to the NASDAQ’s bullish trend?

NASDAQ - Bullish Signals With The Risk of Corrections!

Due to the NASDAQ’s considerable rise on Friday, the index is obtaining bullish signals from technical indicators and price action, although other factors continue to signal risk of a potential further downslide. With inflation on the rise again and economic data beating expectations, the hawkishness of the Federal Reserve is likely to remain.

On Thursday and Friday, the US Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices all rose above expectations. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from 48.4 to 49.3 and the Manufacturing Prices Index from 50.3 to 52.5. Friday’s strong economic data did trigger a 40-minute decline, but the bullish trend continued thereafter. Nonetheless, the positive economic data adds to the Federal Reserve’s current bullish tone. A hawkish Fed in the long-term can dim upward price movement or even trigger a larger correction.

In addition to this, President-elect Trump will take office on January 20th and most political experts predict his administration will pursue tariffs on imports. Previously, this triggered a lower sentiment towards the stock market and a strong US Dollar. The US Dollar over the past 2 months has appreciated by almost 5.00%, but stocks have yet to experience a significant, lasting decline. A strong factor for the performance in January and February will be earnings season.

Traders will be monitoring whether institutions increase their exposure to the NASDAQ as earnings season approaches. However, the market’s decision will also depend on the upcoming employment data. The US is set to release its JOLTS Job Vacancies tomorrow, ADP Employment Change on Wednesday, NFP Employment Change and Unemployment Rate on Friday. Analysts expect the US Unemployment Rate to remain at 4.2%. If the employment data reads higher than expectations, investors may adopt a more hawkish stance on monetary policy. As a result, the positive data could have a negative short-term effect on the NASDAQ.

European stocks trade higher as the European Market opens, while Asian stocks decline. However, both the VIX Index and US bond Yields trade higher. If the VIX and Bond Yields continue to rise, traders may become cautious of further speculating the impulse wave in the short term.

NASDAQ - Earnings Season

As mentioned above, earnings season will start on NFP Friday (Friday 10th), but none of the NASDAQ components will be included. Nonetheless, the quarterly earnings reports on Friday will provide either a stronger or weaker sentiment towards the US stock market and therefore will have a ripple effect on the technology sector.

The first NASDAQ companies which analysts will be following are Netflix and Tesla. Analysts expect revenue for Netflix to increase above $10 billion, but for their earnings per share to fall from $5.40 to $4.22. However, for Tesla, analysts expect both revenue and earnings per share to increase, despite the company failing to meet its delivery targets. Over the past 12 months, Tesla has risen by 70% and Netflix by 82%.

NASDAQ - Technical Analysis

The price of the NASDAQ is trading above the 75-bar EMA and attempting to cross above the 100-bar SMA. On the 2-hour chart, the index is also trading in the buy zone of most oscillators. The NASDAQ also starts this week with a bullish price gap measuring 0.23%. Currently, the price movement indicates investors are increasing exposure as we approach the start of earnings season. However, this will also depend on the employment data throughout the week.

Key Takeaways:

*Price movement indicates investors are increasing their exposure to the NASDAQ as earnings season approaches.
*Key risks remain if employment data beat expectations, which could likely trigger a prolonged hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.
*The performance of the stock market will also depend on the potential for upcoming trade wars. Donald Trump is set to take office on January 20th.
*The price of the NASDAQ is trading above the 75-bar EMA and attempting to cross above the 100-bar SMA. Today’s trading starts with a bullish price gap.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM_Official]

Date: 7th January 2025.

European Stocks Dip, Yen Hits Lows, Bitcoin Surges Over $102K Amid Market Shifts.

Asia & European Sessions:

*European stocks are set to open lower, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5%, reflecting caution ahead of key economic releases, including eurozone inflation and US job openings data.
*US futures also edged lower, contrasting with modest gains in Asian markets driven by strength in chip-related stocks. The surge in semiconductor shares followed Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's announcement of new products, reigniting optimism around AI demand.
*Tencent shares plunged by as much as 8%, while battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology dropped over 6% after being labeled a military-linked entity by the Pentagon.
*Market sentiment remains clouded by geopolitical concerns. Traders are digesting rising trade tensions after Donald Trump refuted reports suggesting he would ease tariffs if he returns to the White House. Washington's decision to blacklist several Chinese companies, including tech giant Tencent Holdings, has further strained U.S.-China relations, adding pressure on China’s already slowing economy.
*Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato issued a warning about "excessive moves" in the yen, suggesting potential intervention to stabilize the currency. The Yen slumped to its weakest level since July, underperforming all major currencies, as Japanese retail investor outflows and the Tokyo benchmark fixing drove the decline. Meanwhile, the selling through the Nippon Individual Savings Account (NISA) and trend-following dollar buying could be a key factors behind the Yen’s drop.
*Justin Trudeau has announced he will resign as Canada's prime minister and as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The US Dollar dip to 107.85 from 109.60 highs, after Trump’s denial.
*The EURUSD rebounded to 1.0413, the GBPUSD rallied to 1.2550.
*The USDJPY fell to 158.42 against the dollar before paring losses to 157.73 by mid-afternoon in Tokyo. The Yen’s performance could be further impacted by US data, particularly Friday’s jobs report. A stronger-than-expected figure may push back expectations for US rate cuts, potentially driving the USDJPY pair to 159.
*Oil prices steadied after dipping for the first time in 6 sessions, with technical indicators suggesting the recent rally may have been overextended.
*Bitcoin surpassed the $102,600 mark, signaling growing confidence in digital assets. A CoinShares report highlighted over $500 million in Bitcoin ETF investments in the year’s first three trading days. MicroStrategy added to the bullish momentum with its ninth consecutive Bitcoin purchase, acquiring another $100 million. The company now holds nearly $45 billion in Bitcoin, and its stock has surged alongside the crypto's rebound — potentially paving the way for further share issuances to fund additional Bitcoin buys. The macroeconomic backdrop remains a key driver for crypto markets. Rumors of a rollback on Trump-era tariffs have caused the USD to weaken, adding volatility to global markets. Bitcoin’s recent price moves reflect this, with traders watching the dollar index closely for cues.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM_Official]

Date: 8th January 2025.

Global Market Update: Inflation Concerns Weigh on Stocks, Bitcoin Drops Below $100K, Gold Holds Steady.

Asia & European Sessions:

*European stocks saw an extended downturn in Asia and the US, driven by mounting inflation worries that triggered a selloff in Treasury markets.
*Fed funds futures took a hit after the stronger than expected JOLTS report, and the ISM services data that showed a pick up in activity, a solid labor market, and an acceleration in prices paid, all supporting a more cautious rate cut stance. Indeed, the implied January contract now shows just -1.7 bps in cuts this month. Earlier bets on a reduction by March have been abandoned, with rate cuts now anticipated in the latter half of the year.
*German manufacturing orders plunged -5.4% m/m in November, after already falling -1.5% m/m in the previous month. The correction was much sharper than anticipated and left the annual rate back in negative territory. There is some life in the manufacturing sector yet, even though the volatile headline numbers and negative survey readings flag ongoing weakness across the sector.
*Asian stocks saw significant losses as the MSCI index of regional equities recorded its largest single-day decline in over two weeks, erasing gains made on Tuesday. China’s primary stock index briefly dipped to its lowest point since September, reflecting investor anxiety over a potential increase in US tariffs.
*Investor sentiment across Asia remains dampened by ongoing economic uncertainty. In China, concerns about a deflationary spiral are growing, even as yield spreads in credit markets reach their lowest levels since the global financial crisis. This has challenged investor appetite amid a wave of debt issuances worldwide.
*The stronger than expected ISM services and JOLTS data weighed on Treasuries as they further eroded Fed rate cut risks, and the subsequent climb in yields and more hawkish Fed outlook hit stocks.
*The major indexes finished measurably weaker on the day with the NASDAQ dropping -1.89%, while the S&P 500 was off -1.11% and the Dow slipped -0.42%.
*Nvidia opened with a better than 2% gain to an intraday record peak of $153 after bullish news from the CES trade show, but the stock reversed in the afternoon and plunged -6% to $140.14 at the close

Financial Markets Performance:

*The US Dollar rallied to 108.65 with next immediate resistance at 108.85
*The EURUSD dipped further to 1.0325, while the GBPUSD is lower to 1.2445.
*The USDJPY is at 158.23 as the Yen remains under pressure.
*Gold is steady at $2650. Haven flows and central bank purchases helped to push gold to record highs in 2024 and central bank buying is helping to keep the price at high levels. China's central bank resumed gold purchases in November, and data released today, show that purchases continued in December.
*Oil rose for a 2nd consecutive day to $75 after industry reports indicated another drawdown in US inventories.
*Bitcoin fell more than 5%, slipping to $96,200 after the $100,000 milestone. The drop came in response to positive US economic data, which pointed to a resilient economy and reduced the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Fed.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM_Official]

Date: 9th January 2025.

FOMC Minutes Signal Slower Rate Cuts, UK Borrowing Costs Surge, & Global Market Update.

Asia & European Sessions:

*The FOMC minutes showed that the Committee expected to be slowing the pace of rate cuts after its decision to trim rates another -25 bps. Following an unexpected emergency rate cut in September, despite there being no immediate crisis, the Fed has since shifted towards a more measured approach, indicating that a slower pace of rate reductions would be “appropriate” by December. The core strategy remains consistent: to bring inflation down. While inflation-related discussions did touch on concerns over US President-elect Trump’s trade taxes and deportation plans, these issues were not the main focus of the inflation debate.
*The Greenback was firmer overnight on reports Trump would declare a state of emergency to get his tariff plans through. It dipped on the ADP report but bounced on the tight jobless claims data. The index had firmed yesterday after Trump denied reports he would soften his tariff plans, and after the strength in the JOLTS numbers Tuesday. Solid 30-year auction results also supported in the afternoon.
*China's inflation data for December showed largely stable consumer prices, with food prices stabilizing (a notable factor given food’s significant weight in the consumer basket) and only modest increases in non-food prices, despite efforts to boost domestic consumption. Producer prices, however, continue to struggle with deflation.
*In the UK, the BRC shop price index fell more sharply than anticipated, with a significant drop in non-food item prices, likely influenced by Black Friday discounts. When combined with sales data, this suggests that UK consumers increased their real-term spending in the fourth quarter, driven by lower prices and promotions.
*Gilts remain under pressure in early trade, with the UK 10-year rate up 2.1 bp at 4.81%. UK 10-year borrowing costs surged to their highest point since the global financial crisis, while the Pound plummeted, as a deepening bond sell-off raised concerns over the Labour government’s ability to meet its self-imposed budget targets. So far in 2025, borrowing costs in the UK have increased at a faster pace than in other major economies, driven by investor fears over the government’s large borrowing requirements and the mounting risk of stagflation.
*Eurozone industrial production rose 1.5% m/m in November. Germany's jobless rate still is very low by European standards, but the overall picture remains pretty gloomy, with political uncertainty and the threat of Trump tariffs not helping.

Financial Markets Performance:

*European stock markets are mixed, with the FTSE100 outperforming and up 0.4%, while the DAX is down -0.2%, after a largely weaker close across Asia. Hang Seng and CSI 300 lost -0.3%, after Chinese inflation numbers.
*The USDIndex is up 0.2% and at 109.17, while Sterling continues to sell off. GBPUSD slumped below 1.2300 on budget angst and as the 10-year Gilt spiked.
*EURUSD slumped to 1.0273 after weak Eurozone data.
*USOIL is slightly down on the day and at USD 73.24 per barrel.
*Gold is unchanged at USD 2662.44 per ounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM_Official]

Date: 13th January 2025.

Global Market Update: Asian Stocks Fall, Pound Weakens,Oil Surges Amid Fed and Geopolitical Shifts.

Asia & European Sessions:

* Asian markets tumbled alongside European and US equity futures as investors scaled back expectations of near-term interest rate cuts by the Fed, following stronger-than-expected US payroll data.
*Bank of America has revised its outlook, no longer anticipating two 25 bps rate cuts this year and warning that the Fed’s next move could be a hike. Goldman Sachs also adjusted its forecast, expecting two rate cuts instead of three for 2025.
*Chinese equities also slid further despite data showing record exports for 2024, as concerns linger over potential higher US tariffs once President-elect Donald Trump takes office.
*The Pound extended its decline from last week, hitting a multi-month low.
*Oil prices surged to a 4-month high due to fresh US sanctions on Russia. These measures included restrictions on two major oil exporters, insurance companies, and over 150 oil tankers.
*China Intervenes to support the Yuan: China intensified its efforts to stabilize the yuan after the currency neared record lows in offshore trading. The People’s Bank of China, along with other regulators, vowed to strengthen oversight of the foreign exchange market, crack down on disruptive activities, and prevent further declines in the yuan.
*Geopolitical tension continues as Justin Trudeau stated that Canada is ready to respond with counter-tariffs against the US if President-elect Donald Trump follows through on his threat to begin a trade war in North America.

Canada is the largest buyer of US-made products, purchasing approximately $320 billion worth in the first 11 months of last year. He emphasized that Canada is the top export partner for 35 US states, and any trade restrictions would ultimately hurt American businesses and workers. Recalling the 2018 tariffs on steel and aluminum under the Trump administration, Trudeau pointed out that Canada had responded by imposing duties on various US goods, including appliances, bourbon whiskey, and boats. He reiterated that his government is ready to take similar action if necessary.

Financial Markets Performance:

*The USDIndex has inched up to 109.84, despite the fact that the Yen strengthened. EURUSD and cable remain under pressure.
*The Pound fell as much as 0.7% to $1.2126, marking its lowest level since November 2023, amid stagflation concerns and budget jitters. This extended a 1.7% drop from the previous week.
“A slowing economy and widening deficits in both the current account and fiscal balances are weighing on the pound,” said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.

*Oil markets were in focus as UKOIL rose above $81 per barrel during Asian trading hours & USOIL to $77.55 driven by US sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector.
*Gold is steady at $2686.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM_Official]

Date: 20th January 2025.

The NASDAQ Rises As Trump Inauguration Edges Closer!

US indices increased in value for the first time after struggling for 5 consecutive weeks. Of the main US indices the NASDAQ witnessed the strongest gains (4.12%). Risk indicators point to a higher risk appetite under the new US President, Donald Trump. President Trump's inauguration will take place this afternoon and has promised to sign over 100 consecutive orders within his first week.

NASDAQ - Higher Investor Confidence!

NASDAQ traders begin to stomach less frequent interest rate adjustments, the market turns its attention to earnings and Trump’s presidency. Investors are becoming more bullish under expectations that Trump will apply policies to support the US economy and entice further investment into the US stock market. A "risk-on" sentiment is evident in today's sessions, reflected in risk indicators like the VIX, High-Low Index, and Bond yields.

Investors this week will concentrate on two factors. The first factor is Trump’s consecutive orders which he has advised will be signed within his first week. Investors will closely monitor how and if these policies influence the US economy and stocks. The second factor is earnings season, which will start to gain momentum this week. Tomorrow, Netflix will release its quarterly earnings report after the market closes.

Netflix is the NASDAQ’s 10th most influential company and 11th most impactful stock. Analysts expect the company’s earnings per share to drop from $5.40 to $4.21, but for Revenue to rise to $10.11 Billion. If Netflix is able to beat the earnings per share and revenue expectations, fundamental elections would indicate a rise in the price. Over the past 12 months the price has risen 76%. A further increase would further support the NASDAQ.

Thereafter, investors will turn their attention to Intuitive Surgical’s earnings report. Currently, investors believe the company’s earnings per share and revenue will rise compared to the previous quarter. Intuitive’s stock has risen by more than 9% in the past week alone indicating that investors believe the company will continue to beat earnings expectations. The company has beat expectations over the past 12-months.

How are Markets Reacting to Trump's inauguration?

Trump pledged to issue executive orders aimed at advancing artificial intelligence programs and establishing the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge). Analysts expect these two alone to support US stocks. However, investors are not yet certain to what extent upcoming tariffs will pressure the NASDAQ and stocks. During the previous trade wars, the NASDAQ fell by 25% over a period of 4-months.

Traders also should note that the NASDAQ rose in the 6-weeks after Trump won the elections. Over the past week, the VIX index fell by more than 12% indicating that the market believes US stocks will perform well under a Trump presidency. Simultaneously, US Bond yields have fallen from 4.80% to 4.58% which is known to positively influence the US stock market. Both the VIX and lower bond yields indicate higher investor confidence as Trump advises that policies will prompt more employment, US made products and more pro-US policies.

NASDAQ - Technical Analysis

The price of the NASDAQ trades above the 200-bar Moving Average on a 5-minute Chart indicating bullish price movement. Moving Averages have also crossed over upwards and the price trades above the VWAP indicating that the asset is maintaining its bullish momentum. Price action is also forming clear higher highs and higher lows, but investors will be cautious if the price does not find resistance at the $21,637 resistance level. In order to break above this level, investors will be hoping for positive earnings data from Netflix and Intuitive.

Key Takeaways:

* President Trump's inauguration will take place this afternoon with promise to sign over 100 consecutive orders within his first week.
* US indices rise after 5 weeks of declines, with the NASDAQ leading at 4.12%.
* Trump pledged to issue executive orders aimed at advancing artificial intelligence programs and establishing the Department of Government Efficiency.
* Analysts expect Netflix earnings per share to drop from $5.40 to $4.21, but for Revenue to rise to $10.11 Billion.
* Investors are becoming more bullish under expectations that President Trump will apply policies to support the US economy and entice further investment into the US stock market.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFM_Official]

Date: 21st January 2025.

Gold Surges Past Key Resistance Level, Undeterred by Looming Tariffs.

Gold prices have risen to their highest level since November 6th, nearing a full correction from the post-election decline. In recent months, analysts have made clear predictions regarding the price of Gold rising to $3,000 in the first half of 2025. This prediction took a hit after the US elections triggered a 6.50% rise in the US Dollar. Is a $3,000 target possible?

How Does Trump Influence Gold?

The focus of the market over the past week has been the influence of a Trump Presidency on tradable assets. So far in January 2025, the price of gold has risen by more than 4.00%. This suggests that investors are confident Trump will not negatively impact gold in the medium to long term. However, investors are also considering the possibility of higher import duties on nearly all goods entering the United States, particularly from Canada, Mexico, and China.

These measures could disrupt global supply chains if these countries choose to retaliate. As a result, the Federal Reserve may cut less in 2025 and the US Dollar may increase further. This is the market’s main concern and could potentially pressure Gold prices lower. In 2018, during the previous “trade wars”, Gold prices fell for 6-consecutive months. However, many economists believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting on 3 occasions. If this does transpire, the price of Gold will be supported further.

Trump did not give any concrete signals on tariffs during his speech. The Republican administration seems likely to focus on targeted tariff increases, particularly on critical imports such as electric vehicles. Tesla Stocks are already trading 0.50% higher before the market opens.

UCFTC Gold Report And Influential Factors

The US Commodities Future Trading Commission also confirms the increase in demand via order flow analysis. The Commission’s data shows net speculative positions rose to 279.4K from 254.9K last week. Buyers have been actively forming positions, with their balance reaching 221.6K compared to 9.1K for sellers. Last week, buyers added 14.9K contracts, while sellers reduced theirs by 3.1K, reflecting strong confidence in the continued upward trend of XAU/USD.

When monitoring external factors and its influence on the price of Gold, traders will most likely continue to monitor Bond Yields, Earnings Reports and the US Dollar. Currently, lower bond yields are supporting Gold prices but this is something investors will need to continue monitoring. Gold prices may also potentially benefit from weaker earnings data to a certain extent. The most volatile day this week will most likely be on Friday as the Bank of Japan confirms its Interest rate decision and global economies release their PMI reports.

Gold’s Performance - Technical Analysis.

The price of Gold this morning is trading 0.75% higher than its open price. The retracement seen during the previous week was weaker than the average retracement size seen over the past 30-days indicating the momentum of the bullish price movement. The average bullish impulse wave measures 2.75% and the current impulse wave reads 1.49%. Therefore, if the asset was to continue similar price movements, the price potentially could rise to $2,763. However, this would depend on how upcoming events influence the price.

Currently, technical analysis is providing a bullish bias as the asset breaks through the resistance level seen on a daily timeframe. In addition to this, the price trades above all Moving Averages and Cumulative Delta Statistics show higher volume in favour of buy orders. For this reason, the asset is witnessing bullish signals. However, if the price declines or retraces, traders should be cautious, as the bullish trend may regain momentum when the price approaches the 200-Period Moving Average on the 5-minute timeframe.

Key Takeaways:

* Gold prices have risen to their highest level since November 6th.
* Last week, buyers added 14.9K contracts, while sellers reduced theirs by 3.1K, reflecting strong confidence in the continued upward trend of XAU/USD.
* Currently, technical analysis is providing a bullish bias as the asset breaks through the resistance level seen on Gold’s daily timeframe
* Economists believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting on 3 occasions.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.