Daily analysis from FXOpen

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EUR/CHF and USD/CHF Weekly Chart Outlook



EUR/CHF is struggling to clear the 0.9960 resistance zone. USD/CHF could gain pace if it clears the 0.9290 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/CHF and USD/CHF Analysis

• The Euro is facing strong resistance near 0.9960 against the Swiss Franc.
  
• There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9850 on the weekly chart of EUR/CHF at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CHF found support near 0.8820 and recently started an upside correction.
  
• There is a crucial bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9200 on the weekly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/CHF Technical Analysis

On the weekly chart of EUR/CHF at FXOpen, the pair started a decent recovery wave from the 0.9400 support zone. The Euro was able to climb above 0.9670 against the Swiss Franc.

During the increase, it traded above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last major decline from the 1.0515 swing high to the 0.9406 low. There was also a spike above the 0.9960 resistance and the 50-week simple moving average.



However, the pair struggled to clear the 1.0090 resistance zone. It failed near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last major decline from the 1.0515 swing high to the 0.9406 low.

On the EUR/CHF chart, the pair is moving lower and trading below the 50-week simple moving average. Immediate support is near the 0.9670 level. The first major support is near the 0.9400 level, below which the pair could decline toward 0.9200.

On the upside, the first major resistance is forming near a key bearish trend line at 0.9850. The next major resistance is near the 0.9960 level, above which the pair might revisit the 1.0090 resistance zone if the weekly RSI moves above 50. Any more gains might the pair toward 1.0500.

This article represents FXOpen Companies’ opinion only, it should not be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to FXOpen Companies’ products and services or as financial advice.

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BTC/USD Analysis: Test of an Important Breakout Amid Scary News



The cryptocurrency market is shaken by claims from the SEC. The lawsuits by the US financial regulator against the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance and its head Changpeng Zhao have added to the lawsuits against the Coinbase exchange, whose shares are traded on Nasdaq. In response, Coinbase representatives said that the exchange has no plans to ban the trading of crypto assets that the SEC considers securities, and does not plan to phase out staking services.

Cryptocurrency market participants anxiously monitor incoming news:
-> Hearings are scheduled for June 14 on the SEC request to freeze Binance.US assets.
-> A division of Binance.US has drastically reduced the number of cryptocurrency pairs available for trading.
-> Coinbase does not see the risk of losing customers or banking partners; the exchange has more than $5 billion on its balance sheet, available to maintain operations and pay legal fees.



Meanwhile, an important breakout test took place on the BTC/USD chart. The price of BTC/USD bounced several times (in late May and early June) from the lower border of the trend channel (1), which has been in effect since the beginning of 2023. But after the news about the lawsuits from the SEC against Binance, it had a bearish breakdown, and yesterday its test was formed on the chart – the price of BTC/USD turned down from the breakdown zone above USD 27k. The bearish breakout test suggests that the price of BTC/USD may continue to decline — consider a scenario in which it, moving within the red descending channel in the face of negative news, can reach an important psychological level of USD 27k.

Disclaimer: This publication represents the News of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

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AUD/NZD and EUR/GBP Weekly Chart Outlook



AUD/NZD is facing major resistance near the 1.0985 zone. EUR/GBP broke a crucial support at 0.8720 and might continue to move lower.

Important Takeaways for AUD/NZD and EUR/GBP Analysis

• The Aussie Dollar started a recovery wave from the 1.0600 support against the New Zealand Dollar.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0600 on the weekly chart of AUD/NZD at FXOpen.
  
• EUR/GBP started a major decline from the 0.9000 resistance zone.
  
• It traded below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.8720 on the weekly chart at FXOpen.

AUD/NZD Technical Analysis

On the weekly chart of AUD/NZD at FXOpen, the pair found support near 1.0500. The Aussie Dollar formed a base above the 1.0600 pivot level against the New Zealand Dollar.

There was a decent increase above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1489 swing high to the 1.0479 low. Earlier this year, the pair even pumped above the 1.0920 resistance zone.



However, the bears were active near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1489 swing high to the 1.0479 low. The pair declined and revisited the 1.0600 support. It is again moving higher toward the 50-week simple moving average at 1.0920.

On the AUD/NZD chart, the pair could struggle to surpass 1.0920 and 1.0985. Only a successful daily close above 1.0985 might start a strong increase. The next major resistance sits near the 1.1100 level.

On the downside, the first major support is near a key bullish trend line at 1.0600. The next major support is near the 1.0300 level, below which the pair may perhaps extend its decline toward the 1.0150 level. Any more losses might call for a move toward the 1.0000 level.

Disclaimer: This publication represents the News of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

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Market Analysis: GBP/USD Consolidates Gains, USD/CAD Faces Hurdle



GBP/USD is showing positive signs above the 1.2540 resistance. USD/CAD is struggling and might decline further below the 1.3310 support.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

• The British Pound started a strong increase above the 1.2440 resistance zone.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2540 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• USD/CAD is correcting losses from the 1.3310 support zone.
  
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3350 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a major increase from the 1.2370 zone. The British Pound climbed above the 1.2440 resistance against the US Dollar.

The upward move gained pace above the 1.2500 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it broke the 1.2540 resistance and traded toward 1.2600. A high is formed near 1.2590 and the pair is now consolidating gains.



Initial support sits near a key bullish trend line at 1.2540 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2395 swing low to the 1.2590 high.

The next major support sits at 1.2500 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2395 swing low to the 1.2590 high, where the bulls might take a stand. If there is a downside break, GBP/USD might test the 1.2440 support.

Immediate resistance is near the 1.2590 level. The first major resistance on the GBP/USD chart is near the 1.2600 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.2620 level. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.2650 resistance in the near term.

Disclaimer: This publication represents the News of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

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BTCUSD Analysis: Clients Fleeing Binance



According to various estimates, from USD 2.36 billion to USD 3.35 billion was withdrawn from the largest cryptocurrency exchange in 1 week. The head of the exchange, Changpeng Zhao, said that the drop in the balance could be exaggerated due to the depreciation of cryptocurrencies against the dollar, but fears are growing.

Hearings will be held today to freeze the assets of the Binance.US exchange in a lawsuit filed by the SEC. By the way, Binance also received a complaint from regulators in Nigeria, a country leading in the adoption of cryptocurrencies in Africa.

Cryptocurrency market enthusiasts are given hope by a bill introduced yesterday by Congressmen Warren Davids and Tom Emmer, which involves the restructuring of the SEC and the dismissal of its head, Gary Gensler. However, believing that this will happen may be too naive.

In one week after the lawsuits from the SEC, the market capitalization of crypto decreased by approximately USD 75 billion. The decline leaders are crypto assets that the SEC classified as securities - ADA, BNB, MATIC and others - about 60 assets in total. Fortunately for enthusiasts, ETH and BTC are not among them.



However, the price of bitcoin is under pressure. The BTC/USD rate has broken through the ascending channel, tested it (as we indicated), and is near an important support around USD 25k. It could be breached if there is a decision to freeze Binance.US funds, or news about the US economy that affects the value of the US dollar.

Disclaimer: This publication represents the News of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

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Market Analysis: USD/CNH Reaches Year-to-date High



Over the past 2 months, CNH has appreciated about 4.4% against the US dollar, reflecting the differences in monetary policies in the world's two largest (and competing) economies.

Yesterday's statistics showed a decrease in inflation in the US, but its level is still far from the target values. It is expected that the Fed at today's meeting will take a break after 10 consecutive increases in the key interest rate, keeping the prospect of raising it until the end of the year. The decision will be published at 21:00 GMT+3, followed by Powell's press conference at 21:30.

In China, the central bank lowered key short-term interest rates on Tuesday. It is expected that rates on medium-term loans may be lowered on Thursday. Barclays predicts that the Central Bank of China will cut rates every quarter in 2023, as economic growth after the lifting of restrictions due to Covid is disappointing.

With China stimulating the economy and curbing inflation by shrinking the US economy, USD/CNH hit its highest since the start of the year, trading near 7.18 today. Thus, the quote is fixed above the level of 7.15, which acted as resistance at the beginning of the month.



The USD/CNH chart shows that the rate is moving within the ascending channel along its median line. The WSJ writes that the difference in US and Chinese monetary policy may continue to put pressure on the weakening yuan.

Disclaimer: This publication represents the News of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

RISK WARNING: Trading on the Forex market involves substantial risks, including complete possible loss of funds and other losses and is not suitable for all members. Clients should make an independent judgement as to whether trading is appropriate for them in the light of their financial condition, investment experience, risk tolerance and other factors.

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BTCUSD Analysis: Bears Attack the Psychological Level



Last night, the price of bitcoin fell below USD 25k for the first time since mid-March. And the bitcoin chart this morning shows sellers breaking through yesterday's low.

There can be two fundamental reasons for the dominance of sellers:

-> yesterday's press conference of the head of the US Federal Reserve (more details in the next post);

-> claims against the Binance and Coinbase exchanges by the US SEC regulator, which declared about 60 crypto assets as securities.



We wrote on June 13 that after the bearish breakout of the ascending channel (1) and the test of this breakout (2), the price of bitcoin could break through the USD 25k support level from top to bottom.

Could the now-forming USD 25k bearish breakout be false?

There are 3 arguments in favor of this idea:

-> previously this level served as resistance – from the point of view of technical analysis, now it should support the market;

-> the price of bitcoin may receive support from the lower border of the channel shown in red;

-> for the price of bitcoin, punctures of psychological levels are quite typical (for example, punctures from bottom to top of USD 25k in the second half of February).

More confidence from the US authorities on this list could add confidence to the bulls, but so far the situation leaves much to be desired.

Disclaimer: This publication represents the News of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Regain Strength



AUD/USD is gaining pace and might climb further higher above 0.6900. NZD/USD is also showing positive signs above the 0.6200 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD USD and NZD USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.6780 and 0.6830 levels against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6830 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
  
• NZD/USD is gaining bullish momentum above the 0.6200 support.
  
• There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.6200 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from the 0.6740 support. The Aussie Dollar was able to clear the 0.6780 resistance to start a steady uptrend against the US Dollar.

There was a close above the 0.6830 resistance and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 0.6890 zone. A high is formed near 0.6892 and the pair is now consolidating gains. The AUD USD chart indicates that the pair is now facing resistance near 0.6892.



The first major resistance might be 0.6900. An upside break above the 0.6900 resistance might send the pair further higher. The next major resistance is near the 0.6950 level. Any more gains could open the doors for a move toward the 0.7000 resistance zone.

On the downside, initial support is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6765 swing low to the 0.6892 high at 0.6860.

The next support could be a major bullish trend line at 0.6830 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6765 swing low to the 0.6892 high.

If there is a downside break below the 0.6830 support, the pair could extend its decline toward the 0.6780 level. Any more losses might signal a move toward 0.6740.

Disclaimer: This publication represents the News of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: GBP/USD Rallies above 1.2800 While EUR/GBP Struggles



GBP/USD rallied above the 1.2765 and 1.2800 resistance levels. EUR/GBP declined and now trading below the 0.8565 resistance.


Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today

• The British Pound is trading in a bullish zone above 1.2700 against the US Dollar.
  
• There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2765 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
  
• EUR/GBP started a fresh decline from the 0.8590 resistance zone.
  
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.8540 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a major increase from the 1.2500 support zone. The British Pound climbed above the 1.2625 resistance zone against the US Dollar.

The bulls were able to pump the pair above 1.2765 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair climbed above 1.2800 and tested 1.2845. A high is formed near 1.2847 and the pair is now consolidating gains.



It is trading above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2629 swing low to the 1.2847 high. The GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near the 1.2845 level.

The next major resistance is near the 1.2880 level. If the RSI moves above 60 and the pair climbs above 1.2880, there could be another rally. In the stated case, the pair could rise toward the 1.2950 level or even 1.3000.

On the downside, there is a major support forming near a trend line at 1.2765 and the 50-hour simple moving average. If there is a downside break below the 1.2765 support, the pair could accelerate lower.

The next major support is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.2629 swing low to the 1.2847 high or 1.2700, below which the pair could test 1.2625. Any more losses could lead the pair toward the 1.2500 support.

Disclaimer: This publication represents the News of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Market Analysis: USD/JPY at the High of the Year



This morning, the Japanese currency weakened to 142.25 yen per US dollar for the first time since November 2022.

This is a consequence of the difference in the monetary policies of the two countries. Last week, the Fed, although it paused in raising the rate, said that it could be raised before the end of the year. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan on Friday maintained its commitment to ultra-soft monetary policy.

The USD/JPY chart shows that the rate is moving within a long-term ascending channel (shown in blue), and today it is near its median line — it can serve as resistance, which can at least slow down the growth of the rate. Or even promote a pullback within the channel shown in yellow.



However, the series of higher lows that has been going on since March 2023 suggests that bulls are dominating the USD/JPY market and may be trying to break the median line.

Disclaimer: This publication represents the News of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.