Daily Forex News

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xtreamforex
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Re: Daily Forex News

Postby xtreamforex » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:19 am

EUR/USD approaches 0.9600 lows as recovery loses

There was a sharp movement in euro which may be missed. The single currency dropped to a fresh low on the year against the greenback, reaching a low of 0.9551 before bouncing back to hit 0.9700, from where it has since drifted back lower. The EUR/USD has now fallen for the fifth consecutive day. However, it was still off the lows at the time of writing, along with the GBP/USD. Will there be any dup buying as we had to the European close?

There are no obvious sings of a bottom in the EUR/USD yet, there’s the possibility we may see some short-covering at the start of this week, primarily due to the prospects of some coordinated central bank action while the lack of fresh news may encourage short-side profit-taking. In addition, the ECB is acknowledging that the growth and inflation outlook has bad and that the risks on latter are on the upside because of a weaker exchange rate. This is what President Lagarde said earlier today, which cause a bit if a bounce in the euro, although the upside remained capped as investors worried about the health of the economy. Any front-loading of interest rate hikes will only bring forward the time the ECB cuts again to help boost the economy. The central bank’s hands are tied, like the BoE and others.

Read More : https://www.xtreamforex.com/eur-usd-approaches-0-9600-lows-as-recovery-loses/

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xtreamforex
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Re: Daily Forex News

Postby xtreamforex » Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:47 am

US Housing data, Core PCE inflation

The slowing US housing market is making alive some memories from the 200—2009 great recession but there is some confusion about whether it’s a red flag for the economy these days. New home sales have been trending downwards so far this year and the August reading is expected to mark a new low at 500k from 511k previously, the lowest in six years. Pending home sales due today could show a steeper contraction of -1.4% from -1.0% previously, remaining negative for the third consecutive month.

A stabilization in the red-hot rent market in August, perhaps on the back of state limits in some regions, was probably a catalyst to a softer house demand too. However, more than half of the renters are still facing elevated prices year-on-year and given the inflation in construction materials as well as the tight supply of houses, there is little prospect for a significant slowdown in the market.

The strength in the labor market is also a tailwind for the real estate sector, delaying any defaults in loan payments. Personal income and consumption figures and together the core PCE inflation on Friday could provide some updates on that front. Although expectations are for a minor monthly pickup to 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, the indicators may not rise any concerns if they stay within normal levels. A potential mild increase in the core PCE inflation to 4.7% y/y would not be something new either after similar pace in the core CPI inflation reading.

Read More : https://www.xtreamforex.com/us-housing-data-core-pce-inflation/

xtreamforex
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Re: Daily Forex News

Postby xtreamforex » Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:58 am

NZ business sentiment is less dire, RBNZ hint at rate cycle high

Business outlook is now -37.6, up 25.9 points higher than the June low. Business outlook rose for a third month and at its fastest m/m pace since December 2020. Activity outlook rose from-4 to -1.8. Import intentions expanded for a second month. A large improvement for profit expectations, even though it remains negative overall. Credit conditions highest since mid-2021. All sectors see improved activity vs 1-year ago. Pricing intentions are still high, but inflation expectations dipped below 6% for the first time in six months.

Business sentiment may not be going from strength to strength, but to see pessimism lose its grip after multi-year lows certainly a step in the right direction. Besides, investors tend to look at the rate of change over the absolute level of such indicators, and right now it looks very likely that business sentiment hit its low in June.

The inflation and higher rates are having a negative effect on business sentiment. At 3%, RBNZ has one of the highest cash rates among the major economies and second place to the BOC and Fed at 3.25%. It’s likely we’ll see another 25bp hike but it’s also possible we could be nearing the terminal rate. Governor Orr said in August that the next rate move is not obvious and earlier today he said, whilst there’s still work to do regarding rates, the tightening cycle was already very mature. So against that backdrop, we suspect a 25bp hike on October the 5th, and may even see a pause-and will look for such clues in the October statement and minutes.

Read More : https://www.xtreamforex.com/nz-business-sentiment-is-less-dire-rbnz-hint-at-rate-cycle-high/

xtreamforex
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Re: Daily Forex News

Postby xtreamforex » Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:19 pm

Recession Fears: The Ukraine war is affecting markets

The Ukraine ware is affecting markets around the world and generating extreme volatility. Worries over inflation in Europe have been brewing even before Russia war with Ukraine in February. While some considered it was temporary, others warned that it was a sign of a deeper crisis. Now, six months since the start of the war in Ukraine, is a recession inevitable in Europe?

The impacts of the conflict will likely vary depending on geographical location. Europe, and countries such as the Baltic states and Poland, are likely to experience more difficulties than countries that depend less on Russia for energy. Western Europe, in particular Germany, also has no easy alternative energy source to replace natural gas from Russia. After Moscow decided to temporarily suspend its gas supply to Germany, gas prices climbed to 295 Euro per Megawatt-hour. Recent data showed that business activity in Germany and France contracted in August due to falling demand and rising prices.
The Euro hit a new 20-year low against the USD, making it more expensive to buy energy on international markets, which is paid with the USD. Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, forecast that inflation, which is at 7.5%, will hit double figures in autumn.

In the US there are already signs of improvement as inflation fell in July from 9.1% to 8.5% due to drop in gas prices. However, Europe continues to pay for its dependence on gas and inflation in Europe is already greater than the figure in the US. Falling food prices and fall in oil prices have not been enough to counteract the increase in gas prices in Europe. But some analysts argue that a recession could help deal with inflation, as long as it is not a prolonged recession.

Read More : https://www.xtreamforex.com/recession-fears-the-ukraine-war-is-affecting-markets/

xtreamforex
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Re: Daily Forex News

Postby xtreamforex » Tue Oct 04, 2022 12:01 pm

Oil Prices Mixed as Markets Digest OPEC+ Supply Cut

OPEC meeting tomorrow to determine what should be done about the amount of crude oil that is supplies to the market. Two weeks ago, the talk looked like to be whether the countries should do anything at all. However, as the price of oil continues to fall, along with weaker manufacturing data and growing fears of a recession, worries of a lack of demand had set in. Rumors started circulating that OPEC would cut supply by 500,000 bpd to 1,000,000 bpd. Over the weekend, the rumors were that OPEC would cut up to 1,500,000 bpd. Russia is said to be leading the way for the supply cuts, as western countries would then need to look to alternative sources for energy. Earlier today, OPEC canceled the Joint Technical Committee meeting scheduled for 4th October.

WTI Crude Oil has been moving aggressively lower since June 14th when oil traded as high as 123.66. The price is moving in a downward sloping channel with brief false breaks above and below the channel. On September 26th, WTI made near-term low of 76.28. Today, Crude Oil has bounced to the top trendline of the channel, up 5%, as traders speculate on the amount of oil OPEC will cut today.

Read More : https://www.xtreamforex.com/oil-prices-mixed-as-markets-digest-opec-supply-cut/

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Re: Daily Forex News

Postby xtreamforex » Thu Oct 06, 2022 11:24 am

U.S. Dollar Index Overview

The USD was the most strongest currency yesterday, supported by rising US yields and softer import/export data. And whilst the prices paid component of the ISM services PMI softened to a 20-month of 68.8, it remains historically high relative to its long-term average of 59.8- which suggests the aggressive Fed tightening is yet to make an impact on the inflationary forces of the robust services sector.

The main economic event for the dollar this week is tomorrow’s NFP report. There was some excitement that it may come in soft due to the notable fall in job openings, but ADP employment came in slight above expectations at 280k yesterday. But it is all to easy to get caught in the noise of individual data prints, so best to take a wider broader view of underlying trends.

Read More :https://www.xtreamforex.com/u-s-dollar-index-overview/

xtreamforex
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Re: Daily Forex News

Postby xtreamforex » Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:03 am

A Turning Point for Policy

The RBA surprised markets this week by slowing the pace of rates increase, opting for a 25bp move against expectations of a 50bp increase. Meanwhile, the RBNZ continued to show a heavy hand against domestic inflation pressures, having delivered a fifth consecutive 50bp rate hike.

In explaining their decision to raise the cash rate by only 25bp to 2.60% at their October policy meeting, the RBA referenced the considerable amount of financial tightening that has already been implemented, a total of 250bps to date. While the Board were cognizant of the domestic risks around inflation; consumer spending; housing and the labor market, a greater emphasis was placed on concerns around the deterioration in the global economy, likely in response to recent volatility within financial markets. As discussed by Chief Economist Bill Evans, we saw that developments in the global economy actually favored a larger increase at the October meeting, given the strength of US consumer inflation and it’s expected consequences of a more aggressive tightening cycle from the Federal Reserve, and hence further upward pressure on global interest rates.

Read More : https://www.xtreamforex.com/a-turning-point-for-policy/

xtreamforex
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Re: Daily Forex News

Postby xtreamforex » Mon Oct 10, 2022 10:55 am

EUR/USD trades below 0.9535 as US dollar recovers

EUR/USD updated another 20 years low last month, lowest at 0.9535. This was followed by a correction, and the pair came close to the equality level on Tuesday, October 04, rising to 0.9999. However, the happiness of the bulls was short, followed by another reversal to the south and the finish line at 0.9737.

The depressed state of the economy against the background of continuing inflation suggests the threat of stagflation in the Eurozone. The increase in energy prices adds to the negative. And it is likely to continue, as the OPEC + countries decided to seriously reduce oil production. Recall that these prices were one of the most powerful triggers for the global wave of inflation. Another negative factor is the proximity of the EU countries to the theater of Russian-Ukrainian military operations, especially since Russian President V. Putin constantly threatens to use nuclear weapons.

Read More :https://www.xtreamforex.com/eur-usd-trades-below-0-9535-as-us-dollar-recovers/

xtreamforex
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Re: Daily Forex News

Postby xtreamforex » Tue Oct 11, 2022 9:46 am

Currency Pair of the Week: GBP/USD

GBP/USD is one of the most popular pairs to discuss over the last month. When Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced the plans for Prime Minister Truss’s new mini-budget program, markets were concerned as to where the money would come to fund it. The Bank of England had been slowly raising interest rates and investors were weary that the government would now have to borrow money at much higher rates. As a result, the Gilts and the GBP got hammered. A few days later, the BOE intervened in the Gilt market, which brought yields lower the value of the Pound higher. The Central bank said it would continue to intervene in the market as necessary, buying up to 5 billion GBP per day worth of Gilts through October 14th, in order to keep liquidity in the markets.

Read More :https://www.xtreamforex.com/currency-pair-of-the-week-gbp-usd/

xtreamforex
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Re: Daily Forex News

Postby xtreamforex » Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:02 am

AUD/USD falls to new 18-month low

AUD/USD continues to lose ground and can’t find its footing. The Aussie started the week on the wrong foot, with a decline of 1.0% on Monday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6266 down 0.52%. Earlier the day, the Australian dollar fell to 0.6247, its lowest level since April 2020.

Australia has posted weak numbers this week, adding to the downward pressure on the ailing Australian dollar. The Services PMI fell into contraction territory with a reading of 48.0 in September, down from 53.3 in August, as the uncertain economic outlook is weighing on business activity. Business confidence levels are down, with NAB business confidence slowing to 5 in September, down from 10 in August. Westpac Consumer Sentiment indicated that consumers are also in a sour mood, with a reading of -0.9% in September after a gain of 3.9% in August, which was the sole gain over the past 11 months.

Read More : https://www.xtreamforex.com/aud-usd-falls-to-new-18-month-low/

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