Daily Forex News

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Gold prices are declining as the Fed maintains its aggressive policy stance

On Thursday, gold prices fell, with some investors profiting after minutes from a US Federal Reserve policy meeting revealed that the central bank was likely to maintain its interest-rate hikes. The price of spot gold fell 0.1 percent to $1,851.57 per ounce. Gold futures in the United States rose 0.2 percent to $1,849.8. According to Brian Lan, managing director of dealer Gold Silver Central, the Fed’s resolve to hiking rates has influenced gold a little, with some profits being taken as the news sinks in, and prices could drop to $1,820 or so.

On Wednesday, gold recovered some of its losses caused by the dollar’s rise as minutes from the Fed’s May meeting suggested the central bank would not become more aggressive, instead raising interest rates by 50 basis points in June and July to combat inflation. In the long run, however, investors who are aware that a recession is on the horizon are looking for a high-value asset that can help them get through this period, and gold will shine, according to Lan.

The opportunity cost of owning bullion, which returns nothing, rises as short-term interest rates and bond yields rise in the United States. During financial crises, however, gold is seen as a safe-haven asset. The Fed’s decision to add two more half-percentage-point raises and then wait to see how they affect the economy was good for gold, but the market’s reaction has been disappointing, according to Michael McCarthy, chief strategy officer at Tiger Brokers in Australia.

The world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, reported a 0.2 percent increase in holdings to 1,069.81 tones on Wednesday, up from 1,068.07 tones the day before. Spot silver rose 0.1 percent to $21.99 per ounce, while platinum rose 0.2 percent and palladium rose 0.5 percent to $2,015.72 per ounce.

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OPEC prepares to establish new output targets, oil prices are rising

Oil prices have climbed ahead of the OPEC cartel of oil-producing nations’ meeting on Thursday, as ministers prepare to establish output targets for July in their first meeting since the European Union slapped sanctions on Russian petroleum. Some members of OPEC are pressuring the organization to eliminate Russia, the world’s third largest oil producer, from future quotas, potentially allowing Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to pump more oil.

Brent crude oil futures, the North Sea benchmark, climbed 2% to $117 a barrel at one point on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate, its North American counterpart, climbed by a comparable amount to just under $116 a barrel. Prices had dipped from highs of over $125 earlier in the week, but had rebounded as investors considered how much supply could be raised to offset the sanctions’ impact.

On Thursday, ministers from OPEC’S 13 members and ten non-Opec producers led by Russia, known as Opec+, will meet by video conference. They’re anticipated to accept a 432,000-barrel-per-day hike in July, the latest in a series of monthly increases that began in September 2021. Russia has fallen behind the rest of the group, with output predicted to fall by 8% this year. According to the Wall Street Journal, Russia’s declining production has spurred some countries, including Gulf members, to propose eliminating Russia from production targets, allowing other members to increase their output.

Oil and energy costs have risen dramatically in recent months as global economies emerge from pandemic lockdowns, exacerbated by the consequences from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As people struggle with increased fuel prices, rapid price swings have contributed to inflationary pressures and cost-of-living issues around the world.

The price hikes have prompted failed attempts by US Vice President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to persuade other major oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia, to pump more, infuriating environmentalists who argue that governments should instead focus on energy efficiency measures that could quickly reduce demand. G7 energy ministers urged for higher OPEC production during a meeting last week in Germany.

The break-up of the Opec+ group, according to Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, will allow Saudi Arabia and the UAE to employ their spare capacity to boost production. However, he questioned if it would help to relieve the pressure on global markets. He claimed that “minds in the EU and the US are concentrated on damaging Russian petro-income.” “More oil from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates will allow the west to impose stricter sanctions, reducing Russian oil supplies while keeping oil prices stable.” As a result, there would be no more supply for the market overall.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, on the other hand, stated on Wednesday that Russia hopes to continue working with OPEC. “The ideas of cooperation on this basis retain their meaning and relevance,” Lavrov said at a news conference in Saudi Arabia during a visit to the Middle East. Most of Russia’s important banks involved in the oil trade have been sanctioned by the US, EU, and allies such as the UK, and the EU belatedly agreed on a partial embargo on oil imports on Tuesday.

Another step to make it more difficult for Russia to export has been collaboration between the UK and the EU to prohibit insurers from insuring ships transporting Russian oil. The world’s oldest insurance market, Lloyd’s of London, announced on Wednesday that it is working closely with British and other governments and authorities to impose global sanctions on Russia.

“Lloyd’s supports and remains committed to the implementation of a global sanctions framework against Russia,” the company said. The EU embargo will not affect oil transported to Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia via the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline, and Bloomberg Economics estimates that Russia will still receive $285 billion (£226 billion) in fossil fuel exports this year, including gas, on which European countries rely heavily.

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With an eye on the US NFP, the XAU/USD is approaching the $1,875 mark

The gold price (XAU/USD) is swinging around $1,870, following an upswing to reclaim a one-month high during Friday’s early Asian session, as the NFP-related caution saps enthusiasm. The recent mixed stories about China, as well as resurgence in US Treasury yields, may also pose a threat to gold prices.

The previous day, though, the yellow metal climbed the highest in a fortnight as the US Dollar Index experienced its greatest daily drop in two weeks. Softer US statistics and Fed policymakers’ hesitation, on the other hand, appeared to have prompted the US dollar’s decline, as well as accelerated gold prices.

The early indication of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), namely the US ADP Employment Change, fell to 128K for May, vs 300K estimates and a downwardly revised 202K previous figure. The Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims, on the other hand, fell to 200K from 210K expected and 211K the week before. In addition, Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs also improved in Q1, to -7.3 percent and 12.6 percent, respectively, compared to market consensus numbers of -7.5 percent and 11.6 percent. Furthermore, factory orders in the United States fell by 0.3 percent in April, compared to a revised 1.8 percent in March and an estimate of 0.7 percent.

Lael Brainard, the Vice-Chair of the Federal Reserve, and Loretta Mester, the President of the Cleveland Federal Reserve, both repeated statements that suggested increasing odds supporting the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes. Deputy US Trade Representative (USTR) Sarah Bianchi stated in a Reuters interview on Thursday that “all options are on the table” when it comes to tariff determinations on Chinese goods. “The US Trade Representative is seeking a ‘strategic realignment’ with China, as well as a tariff structure that ‘makes sense,'” the diplomat noted.

While Wall Street benchmarks gained for the first time in a week, US Treasury rates remained under pressure. The S&P 500 Futures have recently posted minor increases, although US Treasury rates have paused their recent decline around 2.92 percent, indicating the market’s cautious confidence. Moving forward, gold traders will be looking for a new direction in the US jobs report for May, as well as the ISM Services PMI for the same month.

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US jobs report indicates more rate hikes are on the way, gold prices are rising

Even as the US jobs report suggested additional interest rate hikes this year, gold was up in Asia on Monday morning, putting pressure on non-yielding bullion. By 10:26 p.m. ET, gold futures were up 0.32 percent to $1856.20. (2:26 AM GMT). For the previous week, it has fluctuated between $1,828 and $1,864, with an overall average of $1,850.

Since new job market statistics revealed no signs of the US economy succumbing to high inflation and rising borrowing costs, the Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates by half a point in June, July, and possibly beyond. Gold fell on Friday as statistics indicated that firms in the United States employed more people than expected in May and continued to raise wages at a rapid rate.

Meanwhile, investors increased their bets on interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank this year, pricing in a larger, 50 basis-point raise at one of the bank’s policy meetings by October. Because gold pays no interest, higher rates increase the opportunity cost of storing it. Sibanye Stillwater, a South African precious metals miner, announced on Friday that trade unions leading a strike at its gold operations had received a mandate from their members to accept a three-year pay contract.

According to the president of the mining chamber, Ghana’s gold production plunged 30% last year, to its lowest level in more than a decade, knocking the country off its perch as Africa’s top producer. Gold discounts widened in India the previous week as demand slowed owing to rising prices and the end of the wedding season. Consumers in top consumer China were likewise wary of buying bullion as coronavirus restrictions were gradually eased. Platinum rose 0.2 percent to $1,015.99 per ounce, while palladium rose 0.9 percent to $1,993.52. The price of silver increased by 0.1 percent to $21.92 per ounce.

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US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, USD/NZD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY

NZD: Business NZ Services Index, it measures level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry.

GBP: Rightmove HPI m/m, it measures change in the asking price of homes for sale.

EUR: German PPI m/m, it measures change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers.

GBP: MPC Member Haskel Speaks, BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

EUR: ECB President Lagarde Speaks, As head of the ECB, which controls short term interest rates, she has more influence over the euro’s value than any other person. Traders scrutinize her public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

GBP: MPC Member Mann Speaks, BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

EUR: ECB President Lagarde Speaks, As head of the ECB, which controls short term interest rates, she has more influence over the euro’s value than any other person. Traders scrutinize her public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

USD: FOMC Member Bullard Speaks, Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

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UK Inflation Rate; Canada Inflation Rate; Powell Testimony; Japan Inflation Rate


NZD: Westpac Consumer Sentiment, it measures level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers.

AUD: RBA Gov Lowe Speaks, As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation’s currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, It’s a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.

CHF: Trade Balance, Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation’s exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers.

GBP: MPC Member Pill Speaks, BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

EUR: Current Account, It’s directly linked to currency demand – a rising surplus indicates that foreigners are buying more of the domestic currency to execute transactions in the region.

GBP: CBI Industrial Order Expectations, It’s a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their expectations can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment.

GBP: MPC Member Tenreyro Speaks, BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation’s key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

CAD: Core Retail Sales m/m, it measures change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

CAD: Retail Sales m/m, it measures change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

CAD: NHPI m/m, it measures change in the selling price of new homes.

USD: Existing Home Sales, It’s a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction.

Read Full News : https://www.xtreamforex.com/uk-inflation-rate-canada-inflation-rate-powell-testimony-japan-inflation-rate-german-info-business-climate/

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As US administration strives for lower gasoline cost, oil prices are falling

Oil prices fell sharply in early trade on Wednesday, despite US President Joe Biden’s efforts to lower increasing fuel costs, which included pressure on large US corporations to help drivers during the country’s peak summer demand. At 00:31 GMT, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $1.34, or 1.2 percent, to $108.18 a barrel, while Brent crude futures were down $1.33, or 1.2 percent, to $113.32.

As the US battles rising gasoline costs and inflation, US President Joe Biden is poised to ask for a temporary suspension of the 18.4-cent-per-gallon federal gasoline tax on Wednesday, according to a person briefed on the proposal. On Monday, Biden said he was debating whether or not to run for president.

“Even oil traders recognized that higher oil prices would lead to a more aggressive tag team onslaught from the (US) Fed pushing rates higher and the Biden administration getting increasingly creative on the political and fiscal front to tame the energy inflation beast,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

Seven oil corporations are scheduled to meet with Vice President Joe Biden on Thursday, under pressure from the White House to lower fuel costs as they post record profits. On Tuesday, however, Chevron CEO Michael Wirth stated that criticizing the oil business was not the way to lower petrol prices.

“These measures are not helpful in solving the difficulties we face,” Wirth wrote in a letter to Biden, prompting Biden to respond that the industry was being overly sensitive. Despite inflation concerns, demand is projected to rise to pre-COVID levels, and supply is expected to trail demand growth, keeping the market tight, as trading giant Vitol and Exxon Mobil Corp pointed out this week. Oil sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow refers to as a “special operation,” have yet to take effect, implying that supplies will only tighten more.

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Stocks decline as Wall Street’s effort at a rally fails

As markets struggled to maintain a recovery from earlier in the day, stocks modestly declined on Wednesday in turbulent trading. Traders also considered remarks made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who reaffirmed the position of the central bank in battling inflation. In the last hour of trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 47.12 points, or 0.15 percent, to 30,483.13. To 3,759.89, the S&P 500 fell 0.13 percent. To 11,053.08, the NASDAQ Composite dropped 0.15 percent.

Stock prices have recently been affected by growing fears of a Wall Street slump. On Wednesday, Fed Chair Powell testified before Congress that the Fed has the “resolve” to rein in inflation, which has risen to 40-year highs. The Fed chairman told the Senate Banking Committee, “At the Fed, we realise the suffering high inflation is inflicting. “We are acting quickly to bring inflation back down because we are strongly committed to doing so.”

Until it sees “compelling evidence that inflation is heading down,” Powell continued, the Fed will maintain its current trajectory. He added that it has grown “much more difficult” to provide a smooth landing for the economy without one. The Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 0.75 percentage points last week and warned that a similar hike could occur again the following month. Investors were alarmed by the central bank’s previous week change to a more aggressive stance against inflation, fearing that it would prefer a recession to continued high inflation.

Jerome Powell has made it clearly apparent that the Fed will keep raising interest rates until inflation starts to decline because inflation is still the largest risk to financial assets. Robert Schein, chief investment officer at Blanke Schein Wealth Management, wrote that a sustained rally for risk assets is difficult to envision until that time. Till the Fed gives the go-ahead, “tight monetary conditions will continue to be a headwind for financial markets,” Schein said.

This week on Wall Street, anticipation of an impending recession grew. According to evidence showing that consumers are beginning to cut down on spending, Citigroup increased the likelihood of a worldwide recession to 50%. The cumulative probability of recession is now approaching 50%, according to a note from Citigroup. “The experience of history indicates that disinflation generally bears considerable costs for growth,” the paper stated.

According to Goldman Sachs, the risks are “greater and more front-loaded,” making a recession for the American economy more likely. The Fed will feel compelled to respond forcefully to high headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations if energy prices continue to rise, even if activity slows sharply, the firm said in a note to clients. “The main reasons are that our baseline growth path is now lower and that we are increasingly concerned.” In the meantime, UBS stated in a note to clients on Tuesday that while in its base scenario it does not anticipate a U.S. or global recession in 2022 or 2023, “it is obvious that the possibilities of a hard landing are rising.”

Given the robustness of consumer and bank balance sheets, UBS continued, “Even if the economy does enter a recession, it should be a brief one. “Oil prices fell on worries that a weaker economy may reduce fuel consumption, hurting energy equities. With a decline of about 4.2 percent, the sector had the worst performance on the broad-market index. Shares of ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil fell by around 6.3 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively. Exxon Mobil and Occidental Petroleum had declines of 3.6% and almost 4%, respectively.

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Fears about economy is growing as Wall Street’s hiring frenzy eases

After a hiring frenzy last year, Wall Street is slowing down due to the growing uncertainty around the U.S. economic future and the ensuing decline in the financial markets. In 2021 and early this year, Wall Street firms, including banks like Citigroup Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co, and Wells Fargo & Co, were obliged to pay more to attract and keep employees due to fierce hiring competition. The increase in bonuses was the biggest in 15 years.

However, hiring fever is waning, according to executives, recruitment experts, and recent data. According to Alan Johnson, managing director of compensation consultancy firm Johnson Associates, “by the end of 2021 it was white hot with unprecedented demand for employment and pay.” “It’s changing swiftly from extremely hot to normal, and by the end of the year it might even turn cold. Undoubtedly, a change is taking place.”

According to the most recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, firms in the securities, commodity contracts, investments, funds, and trusts sector were still adding jobs, but the rate of growth was noticeably slower in May, adding only 1,200 positions as opposed to 4,600 in April. In contrast, the industry experienced its largest annual headcount growth since 2000 in 2021, when the monthly average was 3,400.

In light of the weakening global markets, some clients have paused some talent searches, according to Alberto Mirabal, senior vice president for investment banking at the recruitment firm GQR Global Markets. These clients want to “see how things shake out” before adding to their already sizable teams.

We’re observing a little slowness, he added. Some Wall Street firms are concerned about the possibility of a recession due to rising inflation that has been compounded by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent interest rate increases. Layoffs are already happening in several areas of the banking sector, most notably the mortgage sector, which is especially vulnerable to interest rate increases that harm house sales.

According to Bloomberg, JPMorgan Chase & Co. is this week reassigning hundreds of workers from its home loan division and firing hundreds more. The industry is not yet experiencing widespread hiring freezes or layoffs, the recruiters claimed, although in general. In addition, some smaller companies, such as boutique investment bank Lazard, are trying to seize the opportunity presented by the evolving market to attract top personnel for themselves.

After 2021, which he described as being the most difficult in a decade for staff retention and remuneration, Lazard Chief Executive Kenneth Jacobs claimed that a hiring slowdown was assisting his company in attracting new talent. Jacobs stated last week at a Morgan Stanley conference that “the rivalry for talent is lessening.” “I believe we’ll try to profit from this.”

Equity capital markets have experienced the sharpest reduction in activity; according to Julian Bell is the managing director and head of the Americas for the Sheffield Haworth talent firm. Broker-dealers will suffer more than full-service banks as a result, according to this. According to him, brokers in the main equities capital markets sectors of healthcare/biotech and technology will suffer the most. Investment bankers are not worried about impending layoffs, despite the fact that hiring is decreasing and salary expectations have decreased following an extraordinarily robust payout in 2021.

According to Anthony Keizner, managing partner at Odyssey Search Partners, whose clients include private equity, hedge funds, and investment funds, “they still think they’re relatively understaffed for the deal volumes that they have.” According to him, certain clients are still quite hungry for skill. The car isn’t about to crash, Keizner replied, “maybe the foot is off the gas just a little.”

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Gold prices increase as ban on new Russian imports

Gold prices rose on Monday as speculation grew that some Western countries could formally forbid the import of the metal from Russia in response to that country’s invasion of Ukraine. By 0231 GMT, spot gold increased 0.5 percent to $1,835.58 per ounce. At $1,836.30, U.S. gold futures were up 0.3 percent. The G-7’s import embargo on Russian gold appears to be giving early Asian markets some short-term assistance.

“However, in practise for the grouping, it is largely a rubber stamp exercise, and I do not expect this to reflect a structural change in the supply/demand outlook that will underpin pricing.” In an effort to put more pressure on Moscow and eliminate its sources of funding for the invasion of Ukraine, four of the wealthy Group of Seven (G-7) countries decided to outlaw the import of Russian gold on Sunday. According to Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, “the headline will be rapidly absorbed, and the market should return to its tug of war between higher front-end rates, negative for gold, and recession odds suggesting sooner rate reduction, positive for gold.”

Even as markets hailed economic data showing inflation expectations to be less worrying than initially thought, a couple of U.S. central bankers indicated on Friday they favoured future strong rate hikes to curb rapid price increases. Although gold is regarded as an inflation hedge, owning bullion, which pays no interest, has a higher opportunity cost as interest rates rise. Overall, gold is still stuck in the $1,780-$1,880 range that has been in place since early May. To change this dynamic, Halley added, the U.S. dollar must make a significant directional shift.

Spot silver increased 1.2 percent to $21.36 an ounce, platinum increased to $912 and palladium increased to $1,886.65 respectively.