Daily Forex News

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xtreamforex
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Re: Daily Forex News

Postby xtreamforex » Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:17 am

EUR/USD accelerates decline below 1.1300

The EUR/USD exchange rate has been heavy this week. On Tuesday, it fell in the US and expanded in Asia. Now falls faster and reaches a few stops below 1.13. The US dollar sold in almost all directions and continued higher on Tuesday US time. The recent rise in the US dollar can be attributed to renewed concerns about the Chinese Evergrande and disproportionate sentiment in Asian indices following US-US trade news headlines. Chinese media previously reported that online sales platform Evergrande had closed some departments, further exacerbating the risk of default. Meanwhile, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said

China is not keeping up with its Phase 1 trade deal.

Additionally, the dollar is still supported by strong US retail sales data, which has reinforced expectations of Fed tightening, pushing Treasury yields up the curve. U.S. retail sales increased for the third straight month in October, up 1.7% year-over-year. 1.4% is expected.

Currently, market participants don’t know how much, in a few months, politicians may worry about inflation. Central bankers are lagging behind the curve and appear unpredictable in monetary policy consistently over time. Hedging is a logical consequence, which again increases demand for high-yielding assets like the dollar that are ready to continue the rally.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic data reflected global uncertainty. A survey of Germany’s ZEW found a sharp drop in ratings on the current situation in November, but an improvement in economic sentiment. The country’s inflation was confirmed at 4.6% y/y in October and the wholesale price index jumped to 15.2% y/y. In October, the lowest level since November 2011, Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Surveys of Consumers, said: “Consumer confidence that inflation and effective policies to mitigate its impact has not yet been developed,” said Richard Curtin. “In early November, consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in ten years.”.

The forthcoming macroeconomic calendar includes the second release of EU third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data (not expected to change to 2.2%) and US retail sales for October, scheduled for Tuesday. The union will release the final inflation data for October on Thursday when the US releases its regular weekly jobless claims data.

EUR/USD is trading at levels last seen in July 2020 and will continue to decline. The technical data on the weekly chart showed increased bearish potential. The pair fell below the 200 SMA after fighting for more than a month before accelerating south. The 20 SMA confidently headed south rather than longer, reflecting growing buying interest. At the same time, technical indicators suggest that the thrust remains at an uneven negative level, but still lowers the other leg. The daily chart suggests a correction rally is imminent. The momentum indicator improved slightly while the RSI lost its bearish strength and stabilized at 34. However, the bearish trend remains stable as all moving averages hold a bearish slope much higher than the current level.

Immediate support will break below the 1.1400 threshold and test the 1.1330 price point. Another bearish extension exposes the 1.1260 level and long-term static support. A correction rally, on the other hand, may reach the 1.1520 area first and then the 1.1610 area later. Sellers are more likely to defend the latter.

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xtreamforex
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Re: Daily Forex News

Postby xtreamforex » Thu Nov 18, 2021 10:57 am

RBNZ Survey – Inflation is expected to rise & to be around 3%

Aggressive polls at the Reserve Bank showed a very sharp rise in expectations for future inflation. The results of the RBNZ’s latest quarterly forecast survey could fuel speculation that the RBNZ could raise its official cash rate by up to 50 basis points in a November 24 interest rate review. Click here for details of the survey results. The RBNZ has been tracking this survey very closely and in some cases was very strongly influenced by the results of interest rate decisions. At least for the latest results, next week’s OCR should increase by 25 basis points to 0.75%. Satish Ranchhod, a senior economist at Westpac, said the latest poll, along with other recent data, “shows increased inflationary pressures in the medium term.” Most notable in the survey is two-year inflation expectations.

In general, these numbers do not fluctuate much between surveys. However, in the latest survey, inflation expectations rose from 2.27% three months ago to 2.96% in two years. This is a huge step according to the criteria of this study.

The 2.96% value is the highest since the 3.00% value in the same survey in June 2011. Prior to June 2011, the same survey had to go back to the early 1990s to find higher numbers. Short-term inflation expectations for one year have risen from 3.02% three months ago to 3.7% in the latest survey.

The latest number is definitely to worry about the RBNZ. Perhaps he is most plagued by inflation expectations five years from now. This particular survey had only expectations for the five years from 2017 and this time, in about five years, that number has reached a record high, rising from 2.03% three months ago to 2.17%. That’s a big step. And, as I said, it may be the most worrisome statistic of the whole survey. The RBNZ wants long-term inflation expectations to be “fixed” at around 2%, which may indicate that companies will budget higher prices in the future, so this rise we concerned. The poll results are the last important part of the economic puzzle ahead of the RBNZ’s next interest rate decision on Wednesday, November 24th.

And poll results follow other economic data that continue to faint positively. As RBNZ raised the OCR from 0.25% to 0.5% on October 6, the annual inflation rate at the end of September was 4.9%, much higher than expected, and the unemployment rate was much lower than expected. .. The

RBNZ has two goals: keep inflation within 1% and 3% and support maximum sustainable employment. Now, while current inflation is clearly out of range, economists believe that they have already reached the maximum level of sustainable employment; a labor shortage is clear and can put upward pressure on wages.

xtreamforex
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Re: Daily Forex News

Postby xtreamforex » Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:28 am

Gold price outlook: XAU/USD Bulls bullish amid weak US dollar in Asia

Asia’s gold is rallying as the US dollar offset some of its overnight gains as the US dollar breaks new cyclical highs following the re-election of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. According to ANZ Bank analysts, the market immediately began pricing in relation to a gradual reduction in asset purchases and interest rate hikes through June. “This caused gold to plummet after 10-year Treasury yields raised more than 8 basis points.”

Meanwhile, yellow metals were supported by rising idle winds. “This ultimately catalyzed the company to break out of a months-long decline from historical highs, driven by a significant wave of CTA short coverage and growing Chinese demand for gold, explained analysts at TD Securities. “But we do note that the battle between high inflation and market prices caused by central bank inflation is not over.”

Going forward, the Fed minutes will be events for the dollar and yellow metal. Markets will be looking for new clues as to when to raise interest rates on how quickly the Fed can shrink. “The protocol will undoubtedly reflect a variety of risk perspectives, but most officials don’t think they will be in a hurry to raise rates given the massive net job loss and expected slowing inflation, said analysts at TD Securities.

Gold (XAU/USD) protects the $1,800 threshold after its worst daily decline in 10 weeks. However, the yellow metal pushed its bid to $1809 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.

The decision of US President Biden to appoint Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman and Richard Clarida as Vice Chairman supported the mood among market participants the day before. Trader enthusiasm has boosted U.S. Treasury yields on hopes of faster contraction and rate hikes in 2022, which in turn propelled the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to new multi-day highs and lowered gold prices.

Gold was impacted by stronger US manufacturing and housing data released on Monday. The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s National Activity Index rose to 0.76 from 0.18% in October (down-corrected). Also, U.S. home sales last month beat forecasts of 6.2 million and beat previous data by 6.29 million to 6.3 million. It’s worth noting that

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ruled out inflation concerns like the 1970s and allowed gold traders to lick their wounds for around $1,800.

Nevertheless, inflation concerns remain valid as billions of dollars of stimulus to the US economy are just around the corner. It also hints that the market will press against the US dollar due to its safe nature as well as new fears about the eurozone COVID-19 threaten continuing global supply chains and further escalating inflationary pressures.

Under these circumstances, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose more in one day than the previous week’s loss, and DXY reached a new high since July 2020. And it will be important for the US to follow the new momentum.

xtreamforex
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Re: Daily Forex News

Postby xtreamforex » Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:05 pm

USD/JPY rise above 115.00 when bullish track hits 44-month high

The USD/JPY bull is breathing around 115.10 after a spike that broke a multi-month high earlier on Wednesday. At the same time, the yen is struggling to extend its two-day rally amid falling US Treasury yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 0.8 basis points (bps) from its highest level since October 22, or about 1.65% at the latest, amid a lack of significant data/events. Yields jumped to a one-month high before mixed US data stopped bonds rising. Geopolitical concerns and recent COVID-19 concerns appear to be playing a challenging role for USD/JPY buyers in recent times.

Japan’s geopolitical tensions with China are escalating over issues related to Vietnam. The defense ministers of Japan and Vietnam reached an agreement on the 10th that “they are opposed to secretly mentioning the sea in response to a unilateral attempt to change the status quo in the region said Kyodo News.” The Netherlands is experiencing a COVID-19 crisis and has recently announced regional closures, but the situation has not improved, driving demand for the Japanese yen, especially amid falling yields.

“The Netherlands started transporting COVID-19 patients across the border to Germany on Tuesday to ease pressure on Dutch hospitals, which are scaling back regular care to deal with a surge in COVID-19 cases,” said Reuters. Also positive for the JPY could be the improvement in COVID-19 conditions at home and the government’s readiness to help the nation overcome the pandemic led economic hardships. Recently, Nikkei reported that Japan will allocate about 600 billion yen ($5.2 billion) from its fiscal 2021 supplementary budget to support advanced semiconductor manufacturers including the world’s No. 1 contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), per Reuters. Against this backdrop, US equity futures are struggling to maintain their rebound from their two-week lows, while Asia Pacific stocks are trading alongside the Japanese Nikkei 225, down 0.80% at press time. USD/JPY could see further declines when considering the consolidation of returns along with a cautious outlook ahead of major US data/events.

Recent FOMC minutes and October PCE core inflation are among the catalysts for the US as expectations for a Fed rate hike rise. Against this backdrop, US equity futures are struggling to maintain their rebound from their two-week lows, while Asia Pacific stocks are trading alongside the Japanese Nikkei 225, down 0.80% at press time. USD/JPY could see further declines when considering the consolidation of returns along with a cautious outlook ahead of major US data/events.

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