Libertarians take on trading

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MightyOne
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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby MightyOne » Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:27 pm

Libertarian wrote:What I don't get about this is, why is it easier to trade the higher TF than the lower one. Isn't a chart a chart? Is it because were still trading the weekly from a smaller chart and therefore we get a lot more cracks at getting the move? I know i'm missing something about this idea.


"Isn't a chart a chart?"

Yes & no...so no :lol:

Let's set up a few cameras: CAM1 takes a picture of your life every 10 minutes, CAM2 Takes a picture every month, and CAM3 takes a picture every 7 years.
Is a picture of Libby's progress a picture of Libby's progress no matter which camera we are looking at?
Yes, but a picture of his current state without knowledge of the journey is an incomplete picture & a picture of the journey tells us little about Libby's current state:
eg "we are heading to Libby's cabin; it is a beautiful place, but the last time he was there he got bit by a spider and almost lost his leg"
Does CAM3 contain information that is relevant to the short-term trip?

"Why is it easier to trade a higher TF than the lower one?"

You might draw a trend-line on a small chart but a single bar on a large chart is itself the uptrend: so even though the charts look the same between periods they carry different meanings.
Relying on a small chart is like looking at a child picking up after herself: is she possessed by an angel or is she going to ask me for something; I'm not going to know what it means without considering more history.

When you combine wider lines with bars that are trends then you have a higher probabilty of price moving in a particular direction after the trigger is hit as there can only be 1 lowest low and the larger the chart the more likely it is that red candles will remain red.

Larger charts also allow you to micromanage your trades: if the H1 width is 5.3 pips then that makes the MN lines 84.8 pips wide and that means that if we come to the conclusion, within 21.2 pips, that the trade is not going to move in our favor then we have only lost a quarter of a line: this means that you can be more aggressive on weekly/monthly charts.

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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby MightyOne » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:21 pm

All of the trades look the same, don't they?

gold.png
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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby Libertarian » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:39 pm

No, this one doesn't, it looks like price hanging out in the middle of nowhere :(


MightyOne wrote:All of the trades look the same, don't they?

gold.png

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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby MightyOne » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:55 pm

Libertarian wrote:No, this one doesn't, it looks like price hanging out in the middle of nowhere :(


MightyOne wrote:All of the trades look the same, don't they?

gold.png


Read the last two pages of the idea thread and then come back to it.

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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby Libertarian » Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:04 pm

Updating the result of my GJ trade, the only trade of the week.

Large levels, thinking it was going higher into the level.
gbpjpy-w1-capital-city-markets.png
gbpjpy-w1-capital-city-markets.png (40.47 KiB) Viewed 3880 times


Body wicks, missed the original MZ trade, but price was still closing higher. (Of course)
gbpjpy-d1-capital-city-markets.png
gbpjpy-d1-capital-city-markets.png (49.15 KiB) Viewed 3880 times


Here is how the actual trade played out. I closed the initial trade for 1 line, because I saw I was really still above the level and price was closing lower, no big deal. Reentered and hedged perfectly (or so I thought). Price had made a 4 HR BO and I hedged it, reentered at the BI. Price kept moving lower and eventually closed lower. I ended up losing just under 2 lines.

How things looked when i thought they were looking good.
gbpjpy-h4-capital-city-markets-2.png
gbpjpy-h4-capital-city-markets-2.png (51.87 KiB) Viewed 3880 times


I used this too. When i saw it BO of the long Channel I thought I was golden. My tipoff that it wasn't really a good trade I think is that it never really respected any of the upward continuation lines. Once it ripped through the intersection of the lower and upper lines I started to worry. But it still look just like a deep retrace from the BO.
gbpjpy-m15-capital-city-markets.png
gbpjpy-m15-capital-city-markets.png (77.24 KiB) Viewed 3880 times


Will be taking the rest of the year off! Reading threads and loving my kids!

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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby LeMercenaire » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:42 pm

Libertarian wrote:Updating the result of my GJ trade, the only trade of the week.

Large levels, thinking it was going higher into the level.
gbpjpy-w1-capital-city-markets.png

Body wicks, missed the original MZ trade, but price was still closing higher. (Of course)
gbpjpy-d1-capital-city-markets.png

Here is how the actual trade played out. I closed the initial trade for 1 line, because I saw I was really still above the level and price was closing lower, no big deal. Reentered and hedged perfectly (or so I thought). Price had made a 4 HR BO and I hedged it, reentered at the BI. Price kept moving lower and eventually closed lower. I ended up losing just under 2 lines.

How things looked when i thought they were looking good.
gbpjpy-h4-capital-city-markets-2.png

I used this too. When i saw it BO of the long Channel I thought I was golden. My tipoff that it wasn't really a good trade I think is that it never really respected any of the upward continuation lines. Once it ripped through the intersection of the lower and upper lines I started to worry. But it still look just like a deep retrace from the BO.
gbpjpy-m15-capital-city-markets.png

Will be taking the rest of the year off! Reading threads and loving my kids!


Have a good time-out. See you when it all kicks off again :lol:

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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby MightyOne » Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:41 am

18500 wasn't good enough, they just had to take it to 19500:

b_a_n_a_n_a_f.png
b_a_n_a_n_a_f.png (83.78 KiB) Viewed 3811 times

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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby Libertarian » Tue Dec 19, 2017 4:47 am

It just makes the end game that much more interesting. I can't even count the number of times I have heard the term bitcoin or block chain in the last 14 days, its friggin crazy. Its like you can hear mass consciousness come alive.

Bout time to buy those puts. The 43% margin requirement is a little bit of a bummer though.

Image

MightyOne wrote:18500 wasn't good enough, they just had to take it to 19500:

b_a_n_a_n_a_f.png

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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby Libertarian » Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:10 am

I have to laugh, because the day after this post I got this emailed to me.

http://www.forexmentoronline.com/can-become-rich-trading-forex-secret-strategy-revealed/#Stacking_Trades_and_Scaling_In

I think this guy is a Kreslik member, or maybe just good advice goes around. I still don't get Supply and demand and think that people cherry pick those trades, but some people trade it well, I guess it just is a case of what I don't know. Anyway, I digress. He says that the key to getting PAID is stacking (he even uses that term). Gee, where have I heard that before. :lol:. But i don't know how to do it and I don't see how that fits into the levels strategy. Is stacking something you do when you feel more confident that this is an extreme to hold on to?

MightyOne wrote:Let's say that you are trading for $10/line and you make 2.5 lines.

Your size is now 10(10.5/8) or $13/line with 8.076 lines.

If you lose 2 lines then your size is 13(6.076/7) or $11/line with 7.180 lines (you're down about $1)
If you win 2.5 lines then your size is 13(10.576/8) or $17/line with 8.087 lines (+57.5 ish dollars, $137.50 risk-box)
If you lose 2 lines then your size is 17(6.087/7) or $14/line with 7.391 lines (you're at +$23.50 & if you lose again then you'll be at -$4.50)
If you win 2.5 lines then your size is 17(10.587/8) or $22/line with 8.180 lines (+100 ish dollars, $180 in the risk-box)

In 3 TP you made $100 and in 2 TP you'll add more than $100...
worst case scenario you lose $80.

Sit down at the table and 'Paper manage' your lines, go back and forth between wins and losses, go on winning and losing streaks, & see for yourself that being down money is no big deal: stacking heals all wounds.

BTCUSD.png

The exact action that you take depends more on observation, line width, and progress, than on a trade setup.

GBPUSDH1.png

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Re: Libertarians take on trading

Postby MightyOne » Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:04 am

Libertarian wrote:
...Bout time to buy those puts. The 43% margin requirement is a little bit of a bummer though.



There is no margin...

you go LONG a call or LONG a put and your total risk the the premium + fees/costs.

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