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The foreign currency to watch this week is the Australian dollar. Following a prolonged move up on the weekly chart, driven by a recovery in commodities and a weaker U.S. dollar, the AUD/USD may have finally reached a top.
Despite the nearly three month rally, the Reserve Bank of Australia had been fairly quiet about the price rise from .6826 to .7722 and its potential impact on the Australian economy. However, Monday’s flat retail sales report may have been the tipping point that convinces the RBA that the time is right to cut interest rates.
I’m going out on a limb because ... (read more)