Daily Forex News

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EUR/USD accelerates decline below 1.1300

The EUR/USD exchange rate has been heavy this week. On Tuesday, it fell in the US and expanded in Asia. Now falls faster and reaches a few stops below 1.13. The US dollar sold in almost all directions and continued higher on Tuesday US time. The recent rise in the US dollar can be attributed to renewed concerns about the Chinese Evergrande and disproportionate sentiment in Asian indices following US-US trade news headlines. Chinese media previously reported that online sales platform Evergrande had closed some departments, further exacerbating the risk of default. Meanwhile, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said

China is not keeping up with its Phase 1 trade deal.

Additionally, the dollar is still supported by strong US retail sales data, which has reinforced expectations of Fed tightening, pushing Treasury yields up the curve. U.S. retail sales increased for the third straight month in October, up 1.7% year-over-year. 1.4% is expected.

Currently, market participants don’t know how much, in a few months, politicians may worry about inflation. Central bankers are lagging behind the curve and appear unpredictable in monetary policy consistently over time. Hedging is a logical consequence, which again increases demand for high-yielding assets like the dollar that are ready to continue the rally.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic data reflected global uncertainty. A survey of Germany’s ZEW found a sharp drop in ratings on the current situation in November, but an improvement in economic sentiment. The country’s inflation was confirmed at 4.6% y/y in October and the wholesale price index jumped to 15.2% y/y. In October, the lowest level since November 2011, Richard Curtin, chief economist for the Surveys of Consumers, said: “Consumer confidence that inflation and effective policies to mitigate its impact has not yet been developed,” said Richard Curtin. “In early November, consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level in ten years.”.

The forthcoming macroeconomic calendar includes the second release of EU third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data (not expected to change to 2.2%) and US retail sales for October, scheduled for Tuesday. The union will release the final inflation data for October on Thursday when the US releases its regular weekly jobless claims data.

EUR/USD is trading at levels last seen in July 2020 and will continue to decline. The technical data on the weekly chart showed increased bearish potential. The pair fell below the 200 SMA after fighting for more than a month before accelerating south. The 20 SMA confidently headed south rather than longer, reflecting growing buying interest. At the same time, technical indicators suggest that the thrust remains at an uneven negative level, but still lowers the other leg. The daily chart suggests a correction rally is imminent. The momentum indicator improved slightly while the RSI lost its bearish strength and stabilized at 34. However, the bearish trend remains stable as all moving averages hold a bearish slope much higher than the current level.

Immediate support will break below the 1.1400 threshold and test the 1.1330 price point. Another bearish extension exposes the 1.1260 level and long-term static support. A correction rally, on the other hand, may reach the 1.1520 area first and then the 1.1610 area later. Sellers are more likely to defend the latter.

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RBNZ Survey – Inflation is expected to rise & to be around 3%

Aggressive polls at the Reserve Bank showed a very sharp rise in expectations for future inflation. The results of the RBNZ’s latest quarterly forecast survey could fuel speculation that the RBNZ could raise its official cash rate by up to 50 basis points in a November 24 interest rate review. Click here for details of the survey results. The RBNZ has been tracking this survey very closely and in some cases was very strongly influenced by the results of interest rate decisions. At least for the latest results, next week’s OCR should increase by 25 basis points to 0.75%. Satish Ranchhod, a senior economist at Westpac, said the latest poll, along with other recent data, “shows increased inflationary pressures in the medium term.” Most notable in the survey is two-year inflation expectations.

In general, these numbers do not fluctuate much between surveys. However, in the latest survey, inflation expectations rose from 2.27% three months ago to 2.96% in two years. This is a huge step according to the criteria of this study.

The 2.96% value is the highest since the 3.00% value in the same survey in June 2011. Prior to June 2011, the same survey had to go back to the early 1990s to find higher numbers. Short-term inflation expectations for one year have risen from 3.02% three months ago to 3.7% in the latest survey.

The latest number is definitely to worry about the RBNZ. Perhaps he is most plagued by inflation expectations five years from now. This particular survey had only expectations for the five years from 2017 and this time, in about five years, that number has reached a record high, rising from 2.03% three months ago to 2.17%. That’s a big step. And, as I said, it may be the most worrisome statistic of the whole survey. The RBNZ wants long-term inflation expectations to be “fixed” at around 2%, which may indicate that companies will budget higher prices in the future, so this rise we concerned. The poll results are the last important part of the economic puzzle ahead of the RBNZ’s next interest rate decision on Wednesday, November 24th.

And poll results follow other economic data that continue to faint positively. As RBNZ raised the OCR from 0.25% to 0.5% on October 6, the annual inflation rate at the end of September was 4.9%, much higher than expected, and the unemployment rate was much lower than expected. .. The

RBNZ has two goals: keep inflation within 1% and 3% and support maximum sustainable employment. Now, while current inflation is clearly out of range, economists believe that they have already reached the maximum level of sustainable employment; a labor shortage is clear and can put upward pressure on wages.

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Gold price outlook: XAU/USD Bulls bullish amid weak US dollar in Asia

Asia’s gold is rallying as the US dollar offset some of its overnight gains as the US dollar breaks new cyclical highs following the re-election of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. According to ANZ Bank analysts, the market immediately began pricing in relation to a gradual reduction in asset purchases and interest rate hikes through June. “This caused gold to plummet after 10-year Treasury yields raised more than 8 basis points.”

Meanwhile, yellow metals were supported by rising idle winds. “This ultimately catalyzed the company to break out of a months-long decline from historical highs, driven by a significant wave of CTA short coverage and growing Chinese demand for gold, explained analysts at TD Securities. “But we do note that the battle between high inflation and market prices caused by central bank inflation is not over.”

Going forward, the Fed minutes will be events for the dollar and yellow metal. Markets will be looking for new clues as to when to raise interest rates on how quickly the Fed can shrink. “The protocol will undoubtedly reflect a variety of risk perspectives, but most officials don’t think they will be in a hurry to raise rates given the massive net job loss and expected slowing inflation, said analysts at TD Securities.

Gold (XAU/USD) protects the $1,800 threshold after its worst daily decline in 10 weeks. However, the yellow metal pushed its bid to $1809 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.

The decision of US President Biden to appoint Jerome Powell as Fed Chairman and Richard Clarida as Vice Chairman supported the mood among market participants the day before. Trader enthusiasm has boosted U.S. Treasury yields on hopes of faster contraction and rate hikes in 2022, which in turn propelled the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to new multi-day highs and lowered gold prices.

Gold was impacted by stronger US manufacturing and housing data released on Monday. The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank’s National Activity Index rose to 0.76 from 0.18% in October (down-corrected). Also, U.S. home sales last month beat forecasts of 6.2 million and beat previous data by 6.29 million to 6.3 million. It’s worth noting that

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ruled out inflation concerns like the 1970s and allowed gold traders to lick their wounds for around $1,800.

Nevertheless, inflation concerns remain valid as billions of dollars of stimulus to the US economy are just around the corner. It also hints that the market will press against the US dollar due to its safe nature as well as new fears about the eurozone COVID-19 threaten continuing global supply chains and further escalating inflationary pressures.

Under these circumstances, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose more in one day than the previous week’s loss, and DXY reached a new high since July 2020. And it will be important for the US to follow the new momentum.

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USD/JPY rise above 115.00 when bullish track hits 44-month high

The USD/JPY bull is breathing around 115.10 after a spike that broke a multi-month high earlier on Wednesday. At the same time, the yen is struggling to extend its two-day rally amid falling US Treasury yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 0.8 basis points (bps) from its highest level since October 22, or about 1.65% at the latest, amid a lack of significant data/events. Yields jumped to a one-month high before mixed US data stopped bonds rising. Geopolitical concerns and recent COVID-19 concerns appear to be playing a challenging role for USD/JPY buyers in recent times.

Japan’s geopolitical tensions with China are escalating over issues related to Vietnam. The defense ministers of Japan and Vietnam reached an agreement on the 10th that “they are opposed to secretly mentioning the sea in response to a unilateral attempt to change the status quo in the region said Kyodo News.” The Netherlands is experiencing a COVID-19 crisis and has recently announced regional closures, but the situation has not improved, driving demand for the Japanese yen, especially amid falling yields.

“The Netherlands started transporting COVID-19 patients across the border to Germany on Tuesday to ease pressure on Dutch hospitals, which are scaling back regular care to deal with a surge in COVID-19 cases,” said Reuters. Also positive for the JPY could be the improvement in COVID-19 conditions at home and the government’s readiness to help the nation overcome the pandemic led economic hardships. Recently, Nikkei reported that Japan will allocate about 600 billion yen ($5.2 billion) from its fiscal 2021 supplementary budget to support advanced semiconductor manufacturers including the world’s No. 1 contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), per Reuters. Against this backdrop, US equity futures are struggling to maintain their rebound from their two-week lows, while Asia Pacific stocks are trading alongside the Japanese Nikkei 225, down 0.80% at press time. USD/JPY could see further declines when considering the consolidation of returns along with a cautious outlook ahead of major US data/events.

Recent FOMC minutes and October PCE core inflation are among the catalysts for the US as expectations for a Fed rate hike rise. Against this backdrop, US equity futures are struggling to maintain their rebound from their two-week lows, while Asia Pacific stocks are trading alongside the Japanese Nikkei 225, down 0.80% at press time. USD/JPY could see further declines when considering the consolidation of returns along with a cautious outlook ahead of major US data/events.

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GBP/USD remains weak below 1.3350 amid omicron concerns and Brexit concerns

GBP/USD is trading moderately below 1.3350, consolidating from its 11-month low of 1.3278, with risk sentiment improving slightly. Despite the risk reset, the risk remains downward biased against the majors as they continue to face the latest Omicron covid and ongoing Brexit issues.

Risk sentiment took a hit in early Asia, and concerns over the latest covid variant shook the market, propelling the overall rebound of the US dollar. South Africa’s recent surge in COVID-19 cases, which appears to have been triggered by a new strain, is urging countries around the world to impose new restrictions. However, Dror Mezorah, head of the coronavirus department at Hadassah University Hospital in Ein Karem, said the clinical status of people infected with Omicron is encouraging.

Despite risk recovery, sentiment around the pound can remain compromised by ongoing Brexit concerns. Vice-President of the European Commission, Margaritis Schinas, said Britain needed to resolve the post-Brexit immigration issue on Saturday.

Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron attacked British Prime Minister Boris Johnson in a letter tweeted Friday and accused him of being “not serious.” This is in light of the ongoing tensions surrounding the Franco-British fishery. We will continue to lead the update of Omicron Covid variants and their impact on risk sentiment on Monday’s UK and US economic calendars. Investors are trying to reassess the Bank of England’s (BOE) rate hike expectations in light of recent Covid claims. This could be a further downside to the UK currency.

The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia, with investors slowly regaining their risk appetite after the discovery of the omicron COVID-19 variant. However, caution remained as research continues on this new strain.

The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies edged up 0.19% to 96.290 by 10:52 PM ET (3:52 AM GMT), after falling to a one-week low of 95.973 on Friday. Although the safe-haven U.S. currency is poised to benefit from the uncertainty, the outlook for when the U.S. Federal Reserve and other key central banks will hike interest rates is now uncertain.

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Options market USD/CAD turns most bearish in last two weeks & expecting volatility in future

WTI crude fell to $70.40 in an early two-day rally on Tuesday. While the 2-day symmetrical triangle limits Black Gold’s recent move, adding 50 HMA to the RSI’s decline and the upper barrier is encouraging for sellers. However, a clear downward break of the triangular support level near $69.20 at the time of issue was necessary for oil sellers to regain control.

After that, a Friday low of $68.30 will attract the market’s attention before lowering the WTI bearish to a September low of around $67 and a July low of around $65. On the other hand, the rise in commodity prices will be a nutritious nut around $72.00 including the triangular resistance and 50 HMA. Even if the price crosses $72, Friday’s high of $74 could provide an additional filter before oil moves up to $77.60. This implies an upside on the 25th of November.

The options market scenario supports USDCAD sellers ahead of today’s testimony of Canada’s GDP and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The reason for the bearish trend may be related to the cautious optimism of the market on Monday. However, recent doubts about the ability of the vaccine to tame a South African Covid variant known as Omicron support US $ / Canadian dollar buyers. With that in mind, the USD / CAD recorded a 0.30% daytime rise of about 1.2790 at the time of the press.

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USD/JPY is recovering from a nearly two-month low and is climbing above the 113.00s mid-point


USD/JPY maintained its footing in pre-European trading and last traded near its daily high at 113.60. After overnight volatile price movements, the USD/JPY pair gained some positive dynamics on Wednesday and found support from several factors. Global risk sentiment has stabilized slightly as investors decide to wait and see if the new strain of Omicron corona virus will ultimately hamper the economic recovery. This is evidenced by a good recovery in the stock market, which weakened the safe Japanese yen and acted as a headwind for major currencies.

Key Notes:

The combination of supporting factors continued to help USD/JPY recover from a two-month low.

A modest recovery in risk sentiment eroded the safe yen and maintained the favor.

The bulls also sensed a rise in US bond yields, but a devaluation of the US dollar could limit returns
The Bulls also turned to a subsequent rebound in US Treasury yields, helped by restrictive comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. When testifying in front of the Senate Banking Commission, Powell said it was time to get off the floor and it would be appropriate to consider ending the asset purchase expansion perhaps a few months earlier. He added that the risk of persistently high inflation is increasing and high inflation is expected by next year.

In response to Chairman Powell’s remarks, short-term financial markets have begun evaluating the possibility of a rate hike of at least 50 basis points through the end of 2022. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor in continuing to support US bond yields. Despite interest rate hikes driven by more aggressive Fed tightening, the US dollar has so far struggled to entice meaningful purchases. This could deter traders from displaying aggressive bullishness and limit the continued recovery of the USD/JPY pair from its near two-month low. Market participants are now eagerly awaiting US economic reports including ADP report and ISM manufacturing PMI. A joint speech by FRS Chairman Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at the House Financial Services Committee is also expected to affect the strength of the dollar. Going forward, traders will consider developments surrounding the coronavirus saga and broader market risk sentiment to capitalize on some of the opportunities associated with the USD/JPY pair.

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NZD/USD stays directed towards 0.6710 supports after softer China data, US NFP eyed

NZD/USD remained bearish near the intraday low of 0.6786 since the Chinese Caixin PMI released early on Friday. At the same time, the kiwi pair reflects disappointing market sentiment and also responds to soft data ahead of key data on US non-farm payroll (NFP). China Caixin Services PMI for November fell to 52.1 from below 53.8, and the composite PMI also fell to 51.2 from 51.5 in the same month. At the same time, indicators of private activity differ from the official values ​​published earlier this week.

Much of the bearish sentiment is adding to the broader strength of the US dollar in hopes of a faster contraction in the Federal Reserve after politicians appeared hawkish in their final speech before the silence began this Saturday. Key proponents of easing faster paybacks, which also fuel fears of inflation, include San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank (FRS) Governors Mary Daley and Thomas Barkin Richmond.

Fed’s hawkish outlook, as well as a weaker-than-expected result for the week’s early and ongoing US unemployment claims, a dismal job cut for November applicants, also reinforced hopes for a faster austerity policy and favorable returns from the Fed. The Wall Street indicator also posted a consolidated weekly loss the previous day, but it should be noted that S&P 500 futures and Asia Pacific stocks fell earlier on Friday.

The reason may have to do with the hopes of US politicians to avoid a government shutdown on Saturday. Also positive for kiwi prices may be recent optimism about the search for a cure for a South African strain of coronavirus called Omicron. Meanwhile, Beijing’s remarks about the EUUS’s recent dislike of China and the first phase of trade negotiations and tariffs seem to challenge risk appetite. In a similar vein, caution has been created ahead of the US employment report.

As it continued trading below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of around 0.6860 from August 2020 to February 2021, it clearly broke the 14-month upside support near the 0.6900 as well as the NZD/USD pair. However, the annual low of around 0.6770 could serve as immediate support to watch out for during the decline. However, the main focus will be on the downward support level and the convergence of the 78.6% Fib. about 0.6710 levels.

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AUD / USD defends 0.7000, prepares for RBA omissions, PBOC RRR falls in stronger yields


The AUD / USD rose slightly to 0.701015 during the Asian session on Monday, licking the wounds after the sharp daily decline since early May. Optimistic views on the Australian economy, expectations for a rate cut by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), and tomorrow’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) as Fed linked chatter dragged the Australian pair to new lows in 2021. Preparations recently police officers. Careful optimism in the market can be on the same line. Prior to the RBA meeting, Bloomberg released a poll stating that “The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to be the last meeting of the year.”

On the other hand, ANZ said: “China’s Prime Minister Li Keqiang has promised the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to reduce the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) without specifying a date. Possible reconstruction by default.” In addition to RBA and PBOC chatter, optimistic printouts of second-tier data at home also supported the AUD / USD price. However, Australia’s TD stock inflation rate rose more than 0.2% to 0.3% in November, with ANZ job ads rising from 6.2% last month to 7.4%.

In addition, the hope of finding a cure for a variant of South Africa’s Covid known as Omicron is less dangerous than initially feared, adding to rumors that it has fueled market sentiment and AUD / USD prices increase. After first hitting Europe and the United Kingdom, the virus strains are strengthening their grip to reach major world countries such as the United States and China. However, it should be noted that scientists around the world are optimistic about treatments. Recently, senior US doctor Anthony Fauci has confirmed that Pfizer’s drug against Omicron is effective. Meanwhile, the news that chewing gum can contain the spread of the virus and the UK’s treatment efforts are also hopeful for distributors.

In addition, Australian Finance Minister Josh Frydenberg’s comment was positive for the AUD / USD rate. According to Reuters, policymakers may revise Australia’s 2022 GDP forecast during a mid-year budget update. It is noteworthy that prices fell sharply on Friday as the US dollar suffered a sudden drop in non-farm payroll (NFP) while trading the unemployment rate collapse. Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike were also raised by comments from President St. James Bullard. “We may consider raising interest rates before the cut is complete,” policymakers said. Wall Street’s benchmark closed negative, but Friday’s US Treasury 10-year yield fell about 10 basis points (bps) to 1.35%, the lowest level since late September. In the future, risk catalysts and pre-RBA sentiment could boost AUD / USD prices on a bright calendar.

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How might Reserve Bank of Australia decision on Interest rates affect AUD/USD?

As with the first Tuesday of every month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is ready to announce its latest monetary policy meeting and interest rate decision around 03:30 GMT. The RBA is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at 0.10% and unchanged its weekly $40 billion bond purchases. Weaker recent third-quarter inflation data from Australia and a stronger wage price index appear to help policymakers keep the status quo.

However, due to concerns arising from the South African covid variant, AUD/USD traders should pay close attention to the RBA exchange rate table for clear guidance given the oversold trend of the Australian currency pair near its 2021 lows.

Key notes:

AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bulls hope to test the 0.71
AUD/USD pattern. RBA Reserve Bank of Australia further declines, risk-free preview: market participants await more stringent hints
AUD/USD reached an intraday high near 0.7055 ahead of a major RBA decision early on Tuesday. The Australian currency pair appears to be cautiously preparing for RBA commentary which may be depressing amid bullish markets. It should be noted, however, that Australian Health Minister Greg Hunt has recently welcomed the introduction of a coronavirus vaccine in Australia, thus implying a more robust RBA statement.

However, AUD/USD traders will pay little attention to the RBA’s ruling unless the central bank cites significant catalysts or hints for a decline in bond buying in February. Still, optimism about the country’s vaccination program could help the couple maintain their recent gains after monetary policy decisions.

Technically, AUD/USD is holding from the November 2020 bottom in RSI oversold conditions. However, the correction retreat remains within the 5-week trend downtrend channel. The August 2021 bottom near 0.7105 attracts short-term buyers ahead of the event, while the convergence of 10DMA and the upper line of the specific channel near 0.7125 are tough nuts for the bulls.

RBA interest rate decision

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decisions are announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). If the RBA assesses the inflation outlook for the economy and raises interest rates, it is positive or bullish against the Australian dollar. Similarly, if the RBA takes a dovish view of the Australian economy and either holds the current rate or cuts it, it is considered negative or bearish.