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Ah, you're right - forgot about the all-in. It is risk 100% to gain 4%. Your calculation of 1.76% is also correct relative to a 4% win of 72 times or a 4% loss of 28 times. My posting of 4% was based on risking 9 pips to net 4 pips with 72% wins and 28% loses. (.72 * 4) - (.28 * 9) = 2.88 - 2.52 = ....

4x=0,

Isn't it also true that out of 100 identical trials one must win 72 and can only lose 28 to maintain the 4% yield?

OK - OK we understand that it is an "all in strategy" - the postings went a little astray, lol. If you put all the marbles on the line every time - win or lose - for a month (approx 20 trading days) with the hoped for benefit of winning every time to get an extraordinary pot of gold, you m...

OK, I'm a little dense. What is ATR(10)? Have read some of Van Tharpe's stuff and postings. Enough to get a pretty solid handle on his concept. His ideas certainly germinated with me. To get "real" numbers to compute expectation requires a lot of trial sets. Would seriously caution you to ...

Open of new candle will be lower than current middle - long.

The trick to this is I never said that you had to stay in the position for any period of time or price change - that is the option - the out.

What a coincidence, I'd be going long too!

Bet we got to same conclusion with different logic.

Not what I would define as 50-50 proposition (semantics). It is a representation of 4% yield to 4x=0's post.

Here is chart expressing a wider range of posibilities to achieve same expectation - different factors:

Just like chart candles, one up the next down, lol. Both potential money makers if exploited correctly.

Tro did not say anything about a 50-50 proposition. I mingled my previously posted evaluation analysis with Tro's initial posed question in answer to jgear. However, I still stand by my original evaluation. For the poster who stated that you could risk 10% for a 4% return, if you do you'll end up bu...

Suppose that you would be immediately executed if you refused to take a positional stand for the next upcoming candle and you had to commit every last dollar to your name to the trade. What position would you take? Shortest time period chart: http://kreslik.com/forums/userpix/384_chart1_1.gif Longer...