Let's get real, Wizzle's log

everything that doesn't belong elsewhere cometh here

Moderator: moderators

Wizzlebizzle
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 142
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:02 am
Reputation: 48
Gender: None specified

Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:11 am

Just letting you know I am still here. Haven't traded at all the last couple of weeks as I have been focussing on an exciting new job opportunity and just got offered the job. The focus will be on that for a while, depending on when they want me to start. Will dip in and out here I am sure.

Happy trading for now for you all.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

Wizzlebizzle
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 142
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:02 am
Reputation: 48
Gender: None specified

Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:46 am

For Jhx,

In regards to adding to positions/entering later.

Took a while, but this is what I regurgitated so far. Input is welcome :)

The idea is that you are better of entering later or adding to a trade, because you risk less and have a higher chance of a winning trade and ultimately having a higher expectancy (win% * average win - loss% * average loss). It is nothing new, I have seen it mentioned many times elsewhere, but it never quite clicked until I collected my own stats and made some calculations. I'm no maths genius by far, so please correct me if you spot an error.

Here we go.

Stats (real life stats):

Profit Win% Name
5 71 a
10 60 b
20 45 c

Average loss 13.5

Ea = 0.71 * 5 - 0.29 * 13.5 = -0.37
Eb = 0.6 * 10 - 0.4 * 13.5 = 0.6
Ec = 0.45 * 20 - 0.55 * 13.5 = 1.58

As a standalone, going for 20 points of profit is the most profitable. Now lets do an experiment and wait for our trade to trigger, but we don't enter just yet, we wait until that trade theoretically would have made 5 points and only now do we get in the trade.

This implies three things:
1. We take less trades, because only 71% of the initial trades would reach +5
2. Average loss goes up by +5 to 18.5.
3. What originally was 10 points profit would now be 5 points profit and what was 20 points profit would now be 15 points profit (because we got in the trade 5 points later).


Profit Win% Naam. Average loss 18.5
5 (was 10) 0.6/0.71=0.85 B
15 (was 20) 0.45/0.71=0.64 C

Our new calculations give us:

EB = 0.85 * 5 - 0.15 * 18.5 = 1.475
EC = 0.63 * 15 - 0.37 * 18.5 = 2.6

EB > Eb and EC > Ec therefore it is more profitable (theoretically) to step in later.

Hope this makes sense and wonder what you have to say about it.

Cheers W

User avatar
Jhx
rank: 150+ posts
rank: 150+ posts
Posts: 347
Joined: Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:36 am
Reputation: 155
Gender: None specified

Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Jhx » Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:03 pm

I get the general idea, I think. Entering late makes sense, but does feel a bit odd. If I were to pick one, I'd say adding. But if you add, that means moving the stop, no? Because the average entry would move in the direction of the trade. Unless you account for that before hand and split the entry size.

Wizzlebizzle
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 142
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:02 am
Reputation: 48
Gender: None specified

Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:30 pm

Jhx wrote:I get the general idea, I think. Entering late makes sense, but does feel a bit odd. If I were to pick one, I'd say adding. But if you add, that means moving the stop, no? Because the average entry would move in the direction of the trade. Unless you account for that before hand and split the entry size.


Entering later/adding. Will, according to my theory at least, both reduce risk and increase E. All very theoretical though..
In the above example I didn't move the stop hence the larger average loss in the second scenario

Wizzlebizzle
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 142
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:02 am
Reputation: 48
Gender: None specified

Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Fri Aug 19, 2022 3:52 pm

GBPUSD_2022-08-19_16-51-59.png
GBPUSD_2022-08-19_16-51-59.png (168.37 KiB) Viewed 5908 times
Just a little something I have ben working on, inspired by Igazi.

I have defined my my own kind of swing point, noted at the arrows. Red is no entry, green is entry, orange is discretionary.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.

Wizzlebizzle
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 142
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:02 am
Reputation: 48
Gender: None specified

Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Mon Aug 22, 2022 10:10 am

GBPUSDM5 First Experimental Trade PoT.png
GBPUSDM5 First Experimental Trade PoT.png (15.29 KiB) Viewed 5847 times
It has been a while!
Here we go, first trade using my own developed strat.

Wizzlebizzle
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 142
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:02 am
Reputation: 48
Gender: None specified

Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Sat Sep 03, 2022 8:31 pm

Note to self:

Every once in a while go through the To Do lists on old notebooks..
"Look into structure"

I never really incorporated this into my trading, but I am seeing so much more. Done some bar by bar manual testing and my results have pretty much doubled.. Can't wait to try it out in real life.

Wizzlebizzle
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 142
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:02 am
Reputation: 48
Gender: None specified

Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Tue Sep 06, 2022 8:42 pm

Good day, put these on while I was at work. Annoyingly I had demo account selected on my phone!

Entry at red line, targets at orange line. First one got stopped out (-1R), re-entered and got +1.4R
GBPUSDM5 Over 5R.png
GBPUSDM5 Over 5R.png (16.23 KiB) Viewed 5670 times
and + 5.4R

edit: don't know why there is a second red line on the screenshot.. im talking about the upper line.

Wizzlebizzle
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 142
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:02 am
Reputation: 48
Gender: None specified

Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Sat Sep 10, 2022 7:55 am

Screenshot 2022-09-09 at 12.34.29.png
Screenshot 2022-09-09 at 12.34.29.png (35.97 KiB) Viewed 5629 times
Yesterdays trade.. Take about precision. 1 pip drawdown and near enough turned at my target.

Wizzlebizzle
rank: 50+ posts
rank: 50+ posts
Posts: 142
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2021 8:02 am
Reputation: 48
Gender: None specified

Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log

Postby Wizzlebizzle » Fri Sep 16, 2022 7:46 am

Writing this as I am waiting for the next setup to happen.
Had a loss yesterday that could have been avoided and should have been a win. I don't mind it because I learnt from it.
Screenshot 2022-09-16 at 08.42.56.png
Screenshot 2022-09-16 at 08.42.56.png (208.69 KiB) Viewed 5535 times


Then took another loss today, but managed to counter it to break even as soon as I realised I was in the wrong. I thought last weeks low was hit, but it hadn't yet, so I went long too early.

Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.


Return to “general”