Just letting you know I am still here. Haven't traded at all the last couple of weeks as I have been focussing on an exciting new job opportunity and just got offered the job. The focus will be on that for a while, depending on when they want me to start. Will dip in and out here I am sure.
Happy trading for now for you all.
Let's get real, Wizzle's log
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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log
For Jhx,
In regards to adding to positions/entering later.
Took a while, but this is what I regurgitated so far. Input is welcome
The idea is that you are better of entering later or adding to a trade, because you risk less and have a higher chance of a winning trade and ultimately having a higher expectancy (win% * average win - loss% * average loss). It is nothing new, I have seen it mentioned many times elsewhere, but it never quite clicked until I collected my own stats and made some calculations. I'm no maths genius by far, so please correct me if you spot an error.
Here we go.
Stats (real life stats):
Profit Win% Name
5 71 a
10 60 b
20 45 c
Average loss 13.5
Ea = 0.71 * 5 - 0.29 * 13.5 = -0.37
Eb = 0.6 * 10 - 0.4 * 13.5 = 0.6
Ec = 0.45 * 20 - 0.55 * 13.5 = 1.58
As a standalone, going for 20 points of profit is the most profitable. Now lets do an experiment and wait for our trade to trigger, but we don't enter just yet, we wait until that trade theoretically would have made 5 points and only now do we get in the trade.
This implies three things:
1. We take less trades, because only 71% of the initial trades would reach +5
2. Average loss goes up by +5 to 18.5.
3. What originally was 10 points profit would now be 5 points profit and what was 20 points profit would now be 15 points profit (because we got in the trade 5 points later).
Profit Win% Naam. Average loss 18.5
5 (was 10) 0.6/0.71=0.85 B
15 (was 20) 0.45/0.71=0.64 C
Our new calculations give us:
EB = 0.85 * 5 - 0.15 * 18.5 = 1.475
EC = 0.63 * 15 - 0.37 * 18.5 = 2.6
EB > Eb and EC > Ec therefore it is more profitable (theoretically) to step in later.
Hope this makes sense and wonder what you have to say about it.
Cheers W
In regards to adding to positions/entering later.
Took a while, but this is what I regurgitated so far. Input is welcome
The idea is that you are better of entering later or adding to a trade, because you risk less and have a higher chance of a winning trade and ultimately having a higher expectancy (win% * average win - loss% * average loss). It is nothing new, I have seen it mentioned many times elsewhere, but it never quite clicked until I collected my own stats and made some calculations. I'm no maths genius by far, so please correct me if you spot an error.
Here we go.
Stats (real life stats):
Profit Win% Name
5 71 a
10 60 b
20 45 c
Average loss 13.5
Ea = 0.71 * 5 - 0.29 * 13.5 = -0.37
Eb = 0.6 * 10 - 0.4 * 13.5 = 0.6
Ec = 0.45 * 20 - 0.55 * 13.5 = 1.58
As a standalone, going for 20 points of profit is the most profitable. Now lets do an experiment and wait for our trade to trigger, but we don't enter just yet, we wait until that trade theoretically would have made 5 points and only now do we get in the trade.
This implies three things:
1. We take less trades, because only 71% of the initial trades would reach +5
2. Average loss goes up by +5 to 18.5.
3. What originally was 10 points profit would now be 5 points profit and what was 20 points profit would now be 15 points profit (because we got in the trade 5 points later).
Profit Win% Naam. Average loss 18.5
5 (was 10) 0.6/0.71=0.85 B
15 (was 20) 0.45/0.71=0.64 C
Our new calculations give us:
EB = 0.85 * 5 - 0.15 * 18.5 = 1.475
EC = 0.63 * 15 - 0.37 * 18.5 = 2.6
EB > Eb and EC > Ec therefore it is more profitable (theoretically) to step in later.
Hope this makes sense and wonder what you have to say about it.
Cheers W
Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log
I get the general idea, I think. Entering late makes sense, but does feel a bit odd. If I were to pick one, I'd say adding. But if you add, that means moving the stop, no? Because the average entry would move in the direction of the trade. Unless you account for that before hand and split the entry size.
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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log
Jhx wrote:I get the general idea, I think. Entering late makes sense, but does feel a bit odd. If I were to pick one, I'd say adding. But if you add, that means moving the stop, no? Because the average entry would move in the direction of the trade. Unless you account for that before hand and split the entry size.
Entering later/adding. Will, according to my theory at least, both reduce risk and increase E. All very theoretical though..
In the above example I didn't move the stop hence the larger average loss in the second scenario
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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log
I have defined my my own kind of swing point, noted at the arrows. Red is no entry, green is entry, orange is discretionary.
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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log
Here we go, first trade using my own developed strat.
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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log
Note to self:
Every once in a while go through the To Do lists on old notebooks..
"Look into structure"
I never really incorporated this into my trading, but I am seeing so much more. Done some bar by bar manual testing and my results have pretty much doubled.. Can't wait to try it out in real life.
Every once in a while go through the To Do lists on old notebooks..
"Look into structure"
I never really incorporated this into my trading, but I am seeing so much more. Done some bar by bar manual testing and my results have pretty much doubled.. Can't wait to try it out in real life.
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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log
Good day, put these on while I was at work. Annoyingly I had demo account selected on my phone!
Entry at red line, targets at orange line. First one got stopped out (-1R), re-entered and got +1.4R and + 5.4R
edit: don't know why there is a second red line on the screenshot.. im talking about the upper line.
Entry at red line, targets at orange line. First one got stopped out (-1R), re-entered and got +1.4R and + 5.4R
edit: don't know why there is a second red line on the screenshot.. im talking about the upper line.
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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log
Yesterdays trade.. Take about precision. 1 pip drawdown and near enough turned at my target.
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Re: Let's get real, Wizzle's log
Writing this as I am waiting for the next setup to happen.
Had a loss yesterday that could have been avoided and should have been a win. I don't mind it because I learnt from it.
Then took another loss today, but managed to counter it to break even as soon as I realised I was in the wrong. I thought last weeks low was hit, but it hadn't yet, so I went long too early.
Had a loss yesterday that could have been avoided and should have been a win. I don't mind it because I learnt from it.
Then took another loss today, but managed to counter it to break even as soon as I realised I was in the wrong. I thought last weeks low was hit, but it hadn't yet, so I went long too early.
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