ER2 charts

futures live trades

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humble1
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Postby humble1 » Mon Apr 02, 2007 12:45 pm

60 minute chart here, price is converging this morning, and is ready to challenge 810 again. the setup is bullish all the way around. that said, I am always skeptical of any pattern breakout, until I see evidence of it's validity. Expanding volume helps, but it is the trading itself that tells me what is happening. Bullish setups are best when the retracements are no more than 50% of the last minor top and bottom in the time frame you are trading. Price will retreat quietly on shrinking volume during the retracements. That means it is crucial to know where the real tops and bottoms are using a confirmation method and it is hard work keeping track of them. Each setup is a new challenge for the trader who must be prepared to move and to trade no matter what the breakout does. This is what makes money. Failures represent some of the best trading opps I have ever seen. I never know before hand when they will occur, but I can usually spot them in the making due to years of watching these things. Leave all bias behind and adapt to what is happening now and be ready for anything before it happens, ....then trade it.

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humble1
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Postby humble1 » Tue Apr 03, 2007 11:54 am

premarket breakout is already at first target resistance @ 811.40....the only way to determine if this is the real deal or not is to watch how it pulls back and handles new supports. there is a gap at 813 area.

humble1
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Postby humble1 » Tue Apr 03, 2007 2:19 pm

no matter how many historical statisitcs you look at, nothing will help you right now except for what is happening in the market now. Right now volume is expanding on the breakout, and the price action has reached another short term resistance target. BULLS, some of them anyway, will take profits here, the price action and volume will tell you if it is a lot of bulls or not so many. support is clearly marked on the chart, if the price action gets nears it, then volume will tell you if the bulls are returning to buy or not. so far the breakout looks clean and solid, but things can change here.

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bearwatch
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Postby bearwatch » Wed Apr 04, 2007 9:43 am

817 is bottom of the old unfilled gap. I'm staying on sidelines until this thing is used as support. Great comments, humble1. Learning lots!

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humble1
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Postby humble1 » Thu Apr 05, 2007 9:05 am

triangle on the 60 minute chart.....this may need to be redrawn again if it just stumbles around some more until it gets over to the blue dashed line. volume is drying up nicely during the consolidation, there should be a fast clean break soon....

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bearwatch
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Postby bearwatch » Thu Apr 05, 2007 1:49 pm

Here's my take for today. Short bias here to 810 when a rally comes about.

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humble1
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Postby humble1 » Thu Apr 05, 2007 5:03 pm

819 may be shortable since the breakout is so lethargic. have to watch out for this bear killing drift up on low volume and don't get caught in that.

bearwatch
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Postby bearwatch » Thu Apr 05, 2007 10:59 pm

Yeah, prices moving slowly up on low volume has been lurking about is becoming a common site lately. Volume sure plays a hard game to figure out. Guess Monday will be the decider.

zeller4
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Postby zeller4 » Thu Apr 05, 2007 11:03 pm

maybe...

humble1
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Postby humble1 » Fri Apr 06, 2007 12:35 pm

this is typical holiday price action.....low volume drifts. however, support and resistance basically affect the price action, even if it takes longer to play out.
right now, price is sitting on some converging support and usually bounces in these setups....the weekly chart is providing some trendline resistance near 825 today...

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