$1,000,000 QUESTION
Moderator: moderators
- TheRumpledOne
- rank: 10000+ posts
- Posts: 15562
- Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
- Reputation: 3036
- Location: Oregon
- Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
- Gender:
- Contact:
Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.
Thank you for your support.
-
- rank: <50 posts
- Posts: 26
- Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:43 pm
- Reputation: 2
- Location: usa
- Gender:
Not what I would define as 50-50 proposition (semantics). It is a representation of 4% yield to 4x=0's post.
Here is chart expressing a wider range of posibilities to achieve same expectation - different factors:
Here is chart expressing a wider range of posibilities to achieve same expectation - different factors:
"Technicians never die - they just chart away"
Trade like a Lemming but don't jump off the cliff like the others
Trade like a Lemming but don't jump off the cliff like the others
I'm talking about stop size. A nine pip stop requires ~10% risk for earning 4% on your account once netting the 4 pips. If you want to earn 4% by grossing 6 pips you need to risk enough to change your account 1% per tick. If you need 4% on 4 ticks, you must risk 10%. How many ticks at 1% per tick until 10% is spent? ...About 9.
- TheRumpledOne
- rank: 10000+ posts
- Posts: 15562
- Joined: Sun May 14, 2006 9:31 pm
- Reputation: 3036
- Location: Oregon
- Real name: Avery T. Horton, Jr.
- Gender:
- Contact:
-
- rank: <50 posts
- Posts: 26
- Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:43 pm
- Reputation: 2
- Location: usa
- Gender:
OK - OK we understand that it is an "all in strategy" - the postings went a little astray, lol.
If you put all the marbles on the line every time - win or lose - for a month (approx 20 trading days) with the hoped for benefit of winning every time to get an extraordinary pot of gold, you most likely will not win in the short run - will utimately succeed in the long run if your bankroll is big enough. Even if you had a 25% advantage the odds of prevailing are 1,099,511,627,775 to 1. If your advantage was 75% the odds against are 317 to 1 which means an average bankroll risk of $158,500 ($500 * 317).
4x=0, understand your point. I was relating to bankroll requirements and you were relating to individual transaction.
If you put all the marbles on the line every time - win or lose - for a month (approx 20 trading days) with the hoped for benefit of winning every time to get an extraordinary pot of gold, you most likely will not win in the short run - will utimately succeed in the long run if your bankroll is big enough. Even if you had a 25% advantage the odds of prevailing are 1,099,511,627,775 to 1. If your advantage was 75% the odds against are 317 to 1 which means an average bankroll risk of $158,500 ($500 * 317).
4x=0, understand your point. I was relating to bankroll requirements and you were relating to individual transaction.
"Technicians never die - they just chart away"
Trade like a Lemming but don't jump off the cliff like the others
Trade like a Lemming but don't jump off the cliff like the others
Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.
Thank you for your support.
-
- rank: <50 posts
- Posts: 26
- Joined: Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:43 pm
- Reputation: 2
- Location: usa
- Gender:
Ah, you're right - forgot about the all-in. It is risk 100% to gain 4%.
Your calculation of 1.76% is also correct relative to a 4% win of 72 times or a 4% loss of 28 times.
My posting of 4% was based on risking 9 pips to net 4 pips with 72% wins and 28% loses.
(.72 * 4) - (.28 * 9) = 2.88 - 2.52 = .36 pip expectation
.36 pip expectation / 9 pips risked = 4% epectatation/yield
Your calculation of 1.76% is also correct relative to a 4% win of 72 times or a 4% loss of 28 times.
My posting of 4% was based on risking 9 pips to net 4 pips with 72% wins and 28% loses.
(.72 * 4) - (.28 * 9) = 2.88 - 2.52 = .36 pip expectation
.36 pip expectation / 9 pips risked = 4% epectatation/yield
"Technicians never die - they just chart away"
Trade like a Lemming but don't jump off the cliff like the others
Trade like a Lemming but don't jump off the cliff like the others
-
- rank: <50 posts
- Posts: 35
- Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2007 8:13 pm
- Reputation: 0
- Location: Show Low
- Gender:
for anyone interested in scalping the FX markets I found this video you might like to watch first.(risk) you will need adobe flash installed in order to view the video, enjoy
http://www.mediafire.com/?a40ycfhje8m
http://www.mediafire.com/?a40ycfhje8m
Please add www.kreslik.com to your ad blocker white list.
Thank you for your support.
Thank you for your support.