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FXCaribbean 09-06-2008 11:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 66623)
TRADING IS A GUESSING GAME


Say you have done your statistics. And say you "know" price has 80% (or whatever) of chance to go up for say 50 pips at least.

So you enter LONG. What is your rr at this time ? When will you consider the current "retrace" is part of the last 20% ? Or are you still adding more info to stat and have a break point ?

ZAKARIAWAIZ 09-06-2008 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 64868)
I said USUALLY, NOT ALWAYS.

It is ALWAYS triple interest and the shorts USUALLY cover right before rollover.

But they didn't today!

That's the reason you have to focus on what is happening instead of what you think or believe will happen.

TO BE CONTINUED...

i did not understand what you mean by upper quote. Could you explain for a newbie.

TheRumpledOne 09-07-2008 12:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FXCaribbean (Post 66642)
Say you have done your statistics. And say you "know" price has 80% (or whatever) of chance to go up for say 50 pips at least.

So you enter LONG. What is your rr at this time ? When will you consider the current "retrace" is part of the last 20% ? Or are you still adding more info to stat and have a break point ?

STATISTICS deal with the past.

PROBABILITY deals with the future.

Do NOT confuse the two.

TheRumpledOne 09-07-2008 12:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZAKARIAWAIZ (Post 66643)
i did not understand what you mean by upper quote. Could you explain for a newbie.

I was talking about the triple interest that happens on Wednesday.

If you are long certain pairs you receive triple interest.

If you are short those pairs you pay triple interest.

To avoid paying interest, the shorts cover (exit) their position.

The usually causes price to go up right before rollover at 5PM EST.

ewokuk 09-07-2008 05:30 AM

ive just had a look at GBPJPY (5% vs 0.25% interest so about the best example of this there is likely to be). over the last few weeks it doesnt seem to have done this at all. often nothing happens and sometimes it has dropped instead, there is no pattern of price moving up around 5pm EST that I can see.

3rd sept price dropped instead
27th aug very little movement, price dropped slightly
20th aug went up slightly between 45 and 15 mins before 5pm but then dropped between 4:45 and 5pm
13th aug price moved up a very small amount then dropped again 15 mins before 5pm
6th aug overall price dropped over the 45 mins before close
29th july price was moving up anyway then dropped opver the 15 mins before close

maybe im just not SEEING it, but there is no pattern there of price moving up just before close on a wednesday despite there being a big interest difference between those. checked audusd as well and its no better. you may say it USUALLY does, but ive checked back to july.

TheRumpledOne 09-07-2008 11:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ewokuk (Post 66651)
ive just had a look at GBPJPY (5% vs 0.25% interest so about the best example of this there is likely to be). over the last few weeks it doesnt seem to have done this at all. often nothing happens and sometimes it has dropped instead, there is no pattern of price moving up around 5pm EST that I can see.

3rd sept price dropped instead
27th aug very little movement, price dropped slightly
20th aug went up slightly between 45 and 15 mins before 5pm but then dropped between 4:45 and 5pm
13th aug price moved up a very small amount then dropped again 15 mins before 5pm
6th aug overall price dropped over the 45 mins before close
29th july price was moving up anyway then dropped opver the 15 mins before close

maybe im just not SEEING it, but there is no pattern there of price moving up just before close on a wednesday despite there being a big interest difference between those. checked audusd as well and its no better. you may say it USUALLY does, but ive checked back to july.

The larger the sample the better the statistics.

Try a year's worth of data.

FXCaribbean 09-07-2008 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 66645)
STATISTICS deal with the past.

PROBABILITY deals with the future.

Do NOT confuse the two.

What are statistics if it's not to guess the very next future ?

BarryPips 09-07-2008 12:16 PM

Even more confused!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 66490)

Some of you got WHACKED yesterday and/or all week long.

Let me give you a rule of thumb:



NEVER TRADE AGAINST THE 60 MINUTE CANDLE COLOR ESPECIALLY WHEN IT MATCHES THE DAILY CANDLE COLOR.


Your quote (above) confuses me even more!

As far as I can see there is no color for the 60 minute or daily candle while it is still forming. And when you make a trade (on any time frame) your trade is part of the soon-to-be set of colors for the 60 minute and the daily candle.

These candles are being formed when you trade, and the color can change to be red or green once the candle CLOSES. It is just after the close that the color is certain. Until the close, you can only look at the candles that have already closed to see the colors.

Thus your statement (from the quote above) does not seem to resolve my confusion.

Could you please explain where I have gone wrong in my thinking about candle colors?

Thank you,
Barry

TheRumpledOne 09-07-2008 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarryPips (Post 66661)
Your quote (above) confuses me even more!

As far as I can see there is no color for the 60 minute or daily candle while it is still forming. And when you make a trade (on any time frame) your trade is part of the soon-to-be set of colors for the 60 minute and the daily candle.

These candles are being formed when you trade, and the color can change to be red or green once the candle CLOSES. It is just after the close that the color is certain. Until the close, you can only look at the candles that have already closed to see the colors.

Thus your statement (from the quote above) does not seem to resolve my confusion.

Could you please explain where I have gone wrong in my thinking about candle colors?

Thank you,
Barry

If the close > open of the H1 candle, then it is GREEN.

If the close < open of the H1 candle, then it is RED.

TheRumpledOne 09-07-2008 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FXCaribbean (Post 66658)
What are statistics if it's not to guess the very next future ?

I agree.

It's just that with dice and coin tossing, there are probabilities and they NEVER CHANGE.

With trading, the statistics change as the sample size increases and/or start/end times change.

pablopluto 09-07-2008 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FXCaribbean (Post 66658)
What are statistics if it's not to guess the very next future ?

Stats are a historic account of events. Probabilities are perfect world chances. Stats are used in sports of what this person, team etc did beofre in differnt situations.

metalorn 09-07-2008 02:44 PM

If I may,

one good example is at the start of the day. If the one minute bar is green, then the hourly and daily are green too.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarryPips (Post 66661)
Your quote (above) confuses me even more!

As far as I can see there is no color for the 60 minute or daily candle while it is still forming. And when you make a trade (on any time frame) your trade is part of the soon-to-be set of colors for the 60 minute and the daily candle.

These candles are being formed when you trade, and the color can change to be red or green once the candle CLOSES. It is just after the close that the color is certain. Until the close, you can only look at the candles that have already closed to see the colors.

Thus your statement (from the quote above) does not seem to resolve my confusion.

Could you please explain where I have gone wrong in my thinking about candle colors?

Thank you,
Barry


pipbulldog 09-07-2008 02:45 PM

candle confusion
 
Tro,
Reading Thru The Last Few Posts,i Think There May Be Confusion On Which Candle You Are Referring To As To Not Trade Against The Color.do You Mean The Recently Closed Candle Or The One In Progress? If It Is The One In Progress,wouldn't You Need To Be In A Buy And Sell Position Until The Price Makes A More Determined Move In One Direction? Just Trying To Clarify. Thanks In Advance.bill

BarryPips 09-07-2008 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 66676)
If the close > open of the H1 candle, then it is GREEN.

If the close < open of the H1 candle, then it is RED.


That's just my point. The current H1 candle has not closed when I make my trade. My trade can take place anywhere during the H1 candle. The H1 candle has not yet closed. You can only see a tendency of the move and also the current price relative to the open (hence MT4 shows a forming candle changing colors, as it compares the latest price with the open).

To me it seems that this rule (that began this discussion about the H1 candle) was generated by looking back over past data. But when you are trading you do not have the luxury of seeing how this H1 candle will close. You can only see the close if you are looking back over past data.

(Do you think that there is a trader that wouldn't give everything to have such knowledge? :D )

All you see in the color of the current candle is the relationship between the open and the current price.

So that rule doesn't have any validity when you are trading.

Look at the candle that got you into the series of trades you made that we discussed earlier (that led to the color rule we are discussing). As prices moved from the open all the way up to hit your buy stop that candle was green...these prices were above the open. But when that candle closed it was red. And such can happen with candles forming on any time frame. As I said before, if at any time I knew the final color of the current candle (tradeable, before it closed) then I would never lose.

Barry

BarryPips 09-07-2008 02:57 PM

And the next, and the next and the next
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by metalorn (Post 66680)
If I may,

one good example is at the start of the day. If the one minute bar is green, then the hourly and daily are green too.

And the next minute the candle is red, because the current price is below the open. Now use your rule to tell me what the next minute will bring, and then the minute after that. And it goes thusly down to the tick (individual trade).

As soon as you make a trade, the next tick bar may have changed, and so the color of the minute, hour and day have changed.

I think that the flaw in that filter (trade based on the H1 current bar color) is that it works, and can be generated only when looking at past data. You don't have the information from the bar to enact that filter while the bar is forming.

And yes, "you may." The only way that I can learn (to see if I can profit from the markets) is to have my ideas and understanding of trading bounced off others who have different viewpoints and/or are smarter and/or more effective that I am.

Thank you,
Barry

Sweet Pip 09-07-2008 03:04 PM

The Close IS the current price. There are only 4 choices to look at per candle...open, high, low, close. So if we're looking at the present candle, the current price is considered the close price. What is price currently doing? If the current (close) price (so far) is higher than the open, then it's green, lower then its red. "Close" doesn't mean the candle is finished.

BarryPips 09-07-2008 03:20 PM

How valid is it as a trading filter
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Pip (Post 66685)
The Close IS the current price. There are only 4 choices to look at per candle...open, high, low, close. So if we're looking at the present candle, the current price is considered the close price. What is price currently doing? If the current (close) price (so far) is higher than the open, then it's green, lower then its red. "Close" doesn't mean the candle is finished.

Thanks.

Given the past few posts of mine, then how valid would you say TRO's bar color filter is?

Every time we see a down (red) candle with a long (upper) wick we are seeing a buy signal that has has gone sour if we were trading on that time frame and probably other time frames below it (TRO talks about trading 5 minute bars with H1 filter). All the time that the current price was above the open, the candle was reinforcing our buy.

I guess the rule could be: if I get a buy signal, and the current price for this H1 bar is above the open, then the filter says do the buy. On the other hand, if the current price in this H1 bar is below the open, then I shouldn't do the buy.

Maybe it would be valuable.:rolleyes: What do you think?

Barry

Sweet Pip 09-07-2008 03:27 PM

Hey TRO, here's an idea maybe to add to your candle color meter indicator?

What if under each t/f candle on your candle meter, you put the color of the smaller t/f candles that made up that t/f?

For example, under the M5, put the last 5 M1 bar colors, under the M15, put the last 3 M5 bar colors, under the M30 put the last 2 M15 bars, under the H1 put the last 4 M15 bar colors etc.

Just a thought :)

BarryPips 09-07-2008 04:20 PM

"FatBars"
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Pip (Post 66688)
Hey TRO, here's an idea maybe to add to your candle color meter indicator?

What if under each t/f candle on your candle meter, you put the color of the smaller t/f candles that made up that t/f?

For example, under the M5, put the last 5 M1 bar colors, under the M15, put the last 3 M5 bar colors, under the M30 put the last 2 M15 bars, under the H1 put the last 4 M15 bar colors etc.

Just a thought :)

This is an idea that I was thinking about. I call it "fatbars." It shows you the candles for the next smaller time frame, or a selectable time frame. For example, If I'm looking at the 1 hour frame, I could have it show the 15 or 30 minute candles the candles that made up each of the 1 hour bars. Thus a user could see the direction of price movement.

TheRumpledOne 09-07-2008 04:29 PM

FRACTALS

http://i35.tinypic.com/9gf40w.gif

I added fib retrace lines to the fractals indicator.

Once again, it doesn't matter what indicator....

PRICE IS PRICE

TheRumpledOne 09-07-2008 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by metalorn (Post 66680)
If I may,

one good example is at the start of the day. If the one minute bar is green, then the hourly and daily are green too.

THAT'S AN ACCURATE OBSERVATION!!

A+

But as time marches on, things change.

metalorn 09-07-2008 04:32 PM

There is already such indicator, the multimeter candle color (look at post #401: http://forums.babypips.com/66490-post401.html)

Now, what I was refering to before was probability. If you are trading out of a 5m candle and you think you can go long, then you check the 1H time frame and if the current bar is green, then you have more chance to profit, and if you go to the 1D time frame and the current bar is green, the probability is even higher.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarryPips (Post 66694)
This is an idea that I was thinking about. I call it "fatbars." It shows you the candles for the next smaller time frame, or a selectable time frame. For example, If I'm looking at the 1 hour frame, I could have it show the 15 or 30 minute candles the candles that made up each of the 1 hour bars. Thus a user could see the direction of price movement.


TheRumpledOne 09-07-2008 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pipbulldog (Post 66681)
Tro,
Reading Thru The Last Few Posts,i Think There May Be Confusion On Which Candle You Are Referring To As To Not Trade Against The Color.do You Mean The Recently Closed Candle Or The One In Progress? If It Is The One In Progress,wouldn't You Need To Be In A Buy And Sell Position Until The Price Makes A More Determined Move In One Direction? Just Trying To Clarify. Thanks In Advance.bill

Previous candles are HISTORY.

You must look at the current candle to make your trading decisions.

If previous candle is red and current candle is green, you should be long.

How long you wait to enter, that's your entry trigger!!

TheRumpledOne 09-07-2008 04:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarryPips (Post 66683)
That's just my point. The current H1 candle has not closed when I make my trade. My trade can take place anywhere during the H1 candle. The H1 candle has not yet closed. You can only see a tendency of the move and also the current price relative to the open (hence MT4 shows a forming candle changing colors, as it compares the latest price with the open).

To me it seems that this rule (that began this discussion about the H1 candle) was generated by looking back over past data. But when you are trading you do not have the luxury of seeing how this H1 candle will close. You can only see the close if you are looking back over past data.

(Do you think that there is a trader that wouldn't give everything to have such knowledge? :D )

All you see in the color of the current candle is the relationship between the open and the current price.

So that rule doesn't have any validity when you are trading.

Look at the candle that got you into the series of trades you made that we discussed earlier (that led to the color rule we are discussing). As prices moved from the open all the way up to hit your buy stop that candle was green...these prices were above the open. But when that candle closed it was red. And such can happen with candles forming on any time frame. As I said before, if at any time I knew the final color of the current candle (tradeable, before it closed) then I would never lose.

Barry

NO.

This rule is based on OBSERVATION and STATISTICS.

What is an H1 candle?

60 M1 candles.

12 M5 candles.

4 M15 candles.

2 M30 candles.

Just look and see how much "whipsaw" there really is AFTER 1 min, or 5 min, or 15 min or 30 min...

See if price stays above/below the open or crosses back and forth.

Also see how many times the candle range is above/below average and NOTE THE TIME OF DAY!!

Now, you have some homework to do...

TheRumpledOne 09-07-2008 04:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarryPips (Post 66686)
Thanks.

Given the past few posts of mine, then how valid would you say TRO's bar color filter is?

Every time we see a down (red) candle with a long (upper) wick we are seeing a buy signal that has has gone sour if we were trading on that time frame and probably other time frames below it (TRO talks about trading 5 minute bars with H1 filter). All the time that the current price was above the open, the candle was reinforcing our buy.

I guess the rule could be: if I get a buy signal, and the current price for this H1 bar is above the open, then the filter says do the buy. On the other hand, if the current price in this H1 bar is below the open, then I shouldn't do the buy.

Maybe it would be valuable.:rolleyes: What do you think?

Barry

NO.

What you are seeing is a LONG trade that you should have exited with a profit.

TheRumpledOne 09-07-2008 04:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Pip (Post 66688)
Hey TRO, here's an idea maybe to add to your candle color meter indicator?

What if under each t/f candle on your candle meter, you put the color of the smaller t/f candles that made up that t/f?

For example, under the M5, put the last 5 M1 bar colors, under the M15, put the last 3 M5 bar colors, under the M30 put the last 2 M15 bars, under the H1 put the last 4 M15 bar colors etc.

Just a thought :)

http://i34.tinypic.com/ajrs0i.gif

That would complicate matters.

That's what charts are for!!

M5 chart with H1 shading.

metalorn 09-07-2008 06:18 PM

greedy buyzone
 
Hello TRO,

Excuse my ignorance, the buyzone on eurusd is greedy right now. Is that a signal?

FXCaribbean 09-07-2008 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 66701)
THAT'S AN ACCURATE OBSERVATION!!

A+

Quite obvious when you look that way. But you can also say the same for each start of Nh candle and you'e looking from 1mn to N timeframe.

IMO, That doesn't help at all to do something ........

metalorn 09-07-2008 06:30 PM

what it means is I just got a nice setup and it's up to me to go for it.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FXCaribbean (Post 66723)
Quite obvious when you look that way. But you can also say the same for each start of Nh candle and you'e looking from 1mn to N timeframe.

IMO, That doesn't help at all to do something ........


FXCaribbean 09-07-2008 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by metalorn (Post 66726)
what it means is I just got a nice setup and it's up to me to go for it.

Sorry i feel my answer could be rude. It wasn"t the idea.

Ok you have a nice setup but it is just true all the time ....... It is as if i tell you you have one hour more each time i have one hour more......

If you look that way e.g smaller timeframe start to greater timeframe start at the same time, then it is always true. => not an information that can be used to trade or ... hmmmmmm :rolleyes: let me check that again ....

TRO, any input ?

metalorn 09-07-2008 07:18 PM

wait... I got it. Greedy is outside of the buy zone so I better stay out!

Quote:

Originally Posted by metalorn (Post 66722)
Hello TRO,

Excuse my ignorance, the buyzone on eurusd is greedy right now. Is that a signal?


TheRumpledOne 09-07-2008 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by metalorn (Post 66722)
Hello TRO,

Excuse my ignorance, the buyzone on eurusd is greedy right now. Is that a signal?

GREEDY means that price has exceeded your TAKE PROFIT TARGET and if you have NOT exited the trade, you are being GREEDY.

Edit your post and post a chart so others can see what you're talking about.

TheRumpledOne 09-07-2008 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by metalorn (Post 66730)
wait... I got it. Greedy is outside of the buy zone so I better stay out!

Yes...LOL!

Did you read the 3 FREE Buy Zone eBooks?

TheRumpledOne 09-07-2008 08:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FXCaribbean (Post 66728)
Sorry i feel my answer could be rude. It wasn"t the idea.

Ok you have a nice setup but it is just true all the time ....... It is as if i tell you you have one hour more each time i have one hour more......

If you look that way e.g smaller timeframe start to greater timeframe start at the same time, then it is always true. => not an information that can be used to trade or ... hmmmmmm :rolleyes: let me check that again ....

TRO, any input ?

Remember, I said many posts back that PRICE doesn't know time and that the 1-tick chart is the ONLY TRUE representation of the market. So you can see that the first minute of the first hour of the first day of the first week of the month, the candles are all the same... PRICE IS THE SAME ON ALL TIME FRAMES.

Then after 1 min, the M1 candle could be different from the rest.

Then after 5 min, the M5 candle could be different from the rest.

And so on....

That's the reason I am telling you to NOT BE FOOLED!!

TO BE CONTINUED...

FXCaribbean 09-07-2008 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FXCaribbean (Post 66728)
If you look that way e.g smaller timeframe start to greater timeframe start at the same time, then it is always true. => not an information that can be used to trade or ... hmmmmmm :rolleyes: let me check that again ....

What if i look at start and end ..... Do i see something TRO ? :p

metalorn 09-07-2008 08:54 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Thank you TRO, here's the "greedy" example. My kid is jumping and playing around me so I've taken only one entry in the last hour, but that was 4 pips without any hustle. I've missed quite a few opportunities!


Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 66737)
GREEDY means that price has exceeded your TAKE PROFIT TARGET and if you have NOT exited the trade, you are being GREEDY.

Edit your post and post a chart so others can see what you're talking about.


metalorn 09-07-2008 08:56 PM

I only saw one. I'll look for the others.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 66738)
Yes...LOL!

Did you read the 3 FREE Buy Zone eBooks?


FXCaribbean 09-07-2008 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 66740)
That's the reason I am telling you to NOT BE FOOLED!!

TO BE CONTINUED...


Can you confirm that the candle not finished but currently designed on a 1H timeframe (say at T) will be the same color when it the hour will last of the one of the 5mn chart that just ended at T+5mn ?

Is that "true" or is that what you wanted to show or am i mistaken somewhere ?

[...]
well i just tried it .....on EURUSD and made 23 pips yet after only the first 6/12 of the "5mn candles" of the 1h currently designed. I don't know if it's gonna be more after, and i don't know how to really exit, but asap a candle went over the Opening price (as i knew it was green at the end), i raised my SL to opening price. I knew i could loose. So i took my pips yet....

Is that it TRO or am i just lucky this time ?


[...]
Ok i tried again just the 1h candle after but was too quick to enter trade then i lost 13 pips (enter, exit, loss, re-enter, re-exit, loss, enter, exit , win).

Now i wait the other one which is going to be there in 10 mn....

So, what's the story ?

TheRumpledOne 09-07-2008 11:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FXCaribbean (Post 66747)
Can you confirm that the candle not finished but currently designed on a 1H timeframe (say at T) will be the same color when it the hour will last of the one of the 5mn chart that just ended at T+5mn ?

Is that "true" or is that what you wanted to show or am i mistaken somewhere ?

[...]
well i just tried it .....on EURUSD and made 23 pips yet after only the first 6/12 of the "5mn candles" of the 1h currently designed. I don't know if it's gonna be more after, and i don't know how to really exit, but asap a candle went over the Opening price (as i knew it was green at the end), i raised my SL to opening price. I knew i could loose. So i took my pips yet....

Is that it TRO or am i just lucky this time ?


[...]
Ok i tried again just the 1h candle after but was too quick to enter trade then i lost 13 pips (enter, exit, loss, re-enter, re-exit, loss, enter, exit , win).

Now i wait the other one which is going to be there in 10 mn....

So, what's the story ?

I am not sure what you are asking me to do.

I can't give any guarantees.

I don't know the future... If anyone did, there would be no market.

FXCaribbean 09-07-2008 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne
Please post all comments/questions on the forum so all may benefit.

I am not sure what you are asking me to do.

I can't give any guarantees.

I don't know the future... If anyone did, there would be no market.

Are we trying to "benefit" from something or better is phylosophy ?


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