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TREND DEPENDS ON THE OBSERVER
http://i36.tinypic.com/102nkfl.gif If you are looking at where PRICE is compared to PRICE 5 H1 bars ago, PRICE is UP 26 pips. If you are looking at where PRICE is compared to PRICE 55 H1 bars ago, PRICE is DOWN 84 pips. WHAT IS THE TREND? CAN "TREND BE YOUR FRIEND" IF YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT THE TREND IS? TO BE CONTINUED... |
STATING THE ( NOT SO ) OBVIOUS
IN TRADING CHART TIME FRAMES: YEARS ARE MADE UP OF MONTHS MONTHS ARE MADE UP OF WEEKS WEEKS ARE MADE UP OF DAYS DAYS ARE MADE UP OF HOURS HOURS ARE MADE UP OF MINUTES MINUTES ARE MADE UP OF TICKS There are those who will tell you that anything less than an H1 chart is "noise". If that is true then by logical deduction, ALL CHARTS ARE NOISE! DO NOT BE FOOLED!! TO BE CONTINUED... |
WHAT IF EVERYTHING YOU LEARNED WASN'T SO?
What happens if you discover or are told that something you thought or believed to be true all you life wasn't really so? What is your INITIAL REACTION? Is is DISBELIEF? Do you fight and argue or do you accept? Do you ignore the information or do you adopt it? How many times must you hear the new information in order for you to believe it? Once? Twice? Thrice? Never? Do you get angry, mad or upset? WHO'S TO BLAME? TO BE CONTINUED... |
Ok,
so I dont want to over-complicate things, but I have a question on the
TRO Trend indicator, this will always be dynamic due to the fact there
could potentially be new lows or highs for the day at any time? You
said you use it on a daily chart for the days high/days low which I
understand, so every day this indicator starts at "ground zero" so to
speak?
I am having the same problem with the retracement lines and stuff, the points and timeframes you can use are subjective, so what is "right"? I guess whatever makes you money is right :) |
MONEY
Money is what trading is all about. Specifically, taking and keeping money. That's right, I said TAKING. When you enter a trade, the desired outcome of that trade is for you to TAKE money away from the market. That's the whole point of trading. If you do NOT take money from the market then the market is TAKING YOUR MONEY FROM YOU. Those are the only possible outcomes. TRADING IS SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST. IT'S A JUNGLE AND THE LAW OF THE JUNGLE APPLIES: EAT OR BE EATEN. KILL OR BE KILLED. You must survive minute by minute. 'IF THERE IS NO SHORT TERM, THEN THERE IS NO LONG TERM." If you do NOT survive the minute or the hour, then you can not survive the day, week or month. Your focus must be on your survival. There are many people who want to take your money. Other traders. The broker via commissions or fees. The banks and liquidity providers. The experts who want to sell books, tapes, CDs, videos, seminars, boot camps, etc... They all have a common goal: TO TAKE AS MUCH MONEY AWAY FROM YOU AS THEY POSSIBLY CAN! They all know the deck is stacked against you. It's not a level playing field. They are nice to you for one reason only: THEY WANT YOU TO ENTER THE JUNGLE SO THEY CAN TAKE YOUR MONEY. You probably have heard that "90% of traders fail". Yet, you still want to enter the trading jungle. What's the reason? Did someone convince you that you'll be one of the 10%? Does that someone have some way of TAKING YOUR MONEY through sales or fees? Don't they all tell you to focus on the LONG TERM? Scalping is frowned upon because it is short term. THE LONGER YOU PLAY THE MORE LIKELY YOU ARE TO LOSE. You know what happens if you go to the casino and stay too long. You were up nice, did NOT cash in and you wound up giving it all back AND THEN SOME! It's the same in trading. You are lured into thinking about the 100 pip or better trade and what happens? YOU GET YOUR HEAD HANDED TO YOU! You may have been up 10 or 20 pips and next thing you know, price reverses on you and you're in the RED. What's the reason THEY can make the big trades but you can't seem to hold on to your pips? WHAT AREN'T THEY TELLING YOU? What if every day, you traded for 10 - 20 pips and quit. What would your account look like at the end of the week? Month? Year? What happens when someone comes along and doesn't stick to the party line? Aren't they viciously attacked? Ostracized? Banished? The SHEPHERDS claim to be protecting you, their FLOCK OF SHEEP, from the WOLVES. Well, those SHEPHERDS wear wool socks and sweaters and they eat lamb chops and roasted rack of lamb! TO BE CONTINUED... |
Reputation
Just
have to say there aren't alot of people out there willing to help new
and experienced traders get to the next level like TRO (rumpledone)
has. He has been a great help to me.
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That doesn't work on a D1 chart.. only intraday. There is no "right/wrong" or "good/bad". Banish those words from your trading vocabulary. There is "profitable/unprofitable" and "desirable/undesirable". MAKING MONEY IS THE PURPOSE OF FOREX TRADING. |
Great food for thought, and yes I was referring to the TRO Trend Meter.
I am having a hay-day reading and thinking about all of this. I totally agree with the points about everyone trying to get in your wallet. I have been constantly thinking about the different points that I personally want to achieve with Forex and a plan to get the results I want. Ironically 20 pips a day (after costs) is what I came up with for a target. |
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What you do with the money is up to you. |
I
mis-stated what I was trying to say, by different points, there are
different approaches to take such as short term intra day, long term,
make a lot of pips, take smaller pips as you you can, etc...
But yes that needs to be etched into my brain at all times, making pips consistantly is the objective. |
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TAKE OR BE TAKEN! You are in the jungle. The big boys will gang up on you and take your lunch money. You can't afford to think long term. You don't have the staying power or the stamina. You are smaller than small compared to them... YOU ARE PUNY! You have no strength to stop them. THEY WILL CRUSH YOU. You must use your smallness to your advantage... HIT AND RUN! Why do you think some brokers don't allow you to scalp? Is it because they know you will lose money and they are protecting you? OF COURSE NOT!! They are taking away your ONLY ADVANTAGE. QUICK STRIKES. You are DAVID, they are GOLIATH and they are taking away your sling. DO NOT LET THEM DISARM YOU. If you THINK ABOUT IT, it may just start to make sense to you. TO BE CONTINUED... |
18. All warfare is based on deception.
Are you familiar with SUN TZU's THE ART OF WAR ? 26. Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose. TO BE CONTINUED... |
* The 48 Laws of Power
The Laws * Law 1 Never Outshine the Master * Law 2 Never put too Much Trust in Friends, Learn how to use Enemies * Law 3 Conceal your Intentions * Law 4 Always Say Less than Necessary * Law 5 So Much Depends on Reputation – Guard it with your Life * Law 6 Court Attention at all Cost * Law 7 Get others to do the Work for you, but Always Take the Credit * Law 8 Make other People come to you – use Bait if Necessary * Law 9 Win through your Actions, Never through Argument * Law 10 Infection: Avoid the Unhappy and Unlucky * Law 11 Learn to Keep People Dependent on You * Law 12 Use Selective Honesty and Generosity to Disarm your Victim * Law 13 When Asking for Help, Appeal to People’s Self-Interest, Never to their Mercy or Gratitude * Law 14 Pose as a Friend, Work as a Spy * Law 15 Crush your Enemy Totally * Law 16 Use Absence to Increase Respect and Honor * Law 17 Keep Others in Suspended Terror: Cultivate an Air of Unpredictability * Law 18 Do Not Build Fortresses to Protect Yourself – Isolation is Dangerous * Law 19 Know Who You’re Dealing with – Do Not Offend the Wrong Person * Law 20 Do Not Commit to Anyone * Law 21 Play a Sucker to Catch a Sucker – Seem Dumber than your Mark * Law 22 Use the Surrender Tactic: Transform Weakness into Power * Law 23 Concentrate Your Forces * Law 24 Play the Perfect Courtier * Law 25 Re-Create Yourself * Law 26 Keep Your Hands Clean * Law 27 Play on People’s Need to Believe to Create a Cultlike Following * Law 28 Enter Action with Boldness * Law 29 Plan All the Way to the End * Law 30 Make your Accomplishments Seem Effortless * Law 31 Control the Options: Get Others to Play with the Cards you Deal * Law 32 Play to People’s Fantasies * Law 33 Discover Each Man’s Thumbscrew * Law 34 Be Royal in your Own Fashion: Act like a King to be treated like one * Law 35 Master the Art of Timing * Law 36 Disdain Things you cannot have: Ignoring them is the best Revenge * Law 37 Create Compelling Spectacles * Law 38 Think as you like but Behave like others * Law 39 Stir up Waters to Catch Fish * Law 40 Despise the Free Lunch * Law 41 Avoid Stepping into a Great Man’s Shoes * Law 42 Strike the Shepherd and the Sheep will Scatter * Law 43 Work on the Hearts and Minds of Others * Law 44 Disarm and Infuriate with the Mirror Effect * Law 45 Preach the Need for Change, but Never Reform too much at Once * Law 46 Never appear too Perfect * Law 47 Do not go Past the Mark you Aimed for; In Victory, Learn when to Stop * Law 48 Assume Formlessness |
I know this was an epic thread on the TS forums, and I think you've repeated that success here...
Keep it coming because this is up there with a handful of REALLY quality threads on here and I can't wait to see more. Cheers mate! |
Great Job Rumpled!
Hi all,
I have been trading for over 2 years.. Have met with success and failure alike, but i state that i have been reading Rumple's post over the past 4 days and I have learned more in that time than in the 2 years. He is insightful and creative. Excellent Job Rump.. Keep up the great work!!! Theo |
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Free at Robert Greene & Joost Elffers - The 33 Strategies Of War (Business Summaries) Its a bizsum e-book. |
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Now you need to post your answers to the questions that I posted. |
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THE ART OF WAR
II. WAGING WAR 1. Sun Tzu said: In the operations of war, where there are in the field a thousand swift chariots, as many heavy chariots, and a hundred thousand mail-clad soldiers, with provisions enough to carry them a thousand li, the expenditure at home and at the front, including entertainment of guests, small items such as glue and paint, and sums spent on chariots and armor, will reach the total of a thousand ounces of silver per day. Such is the cost of raising an army of 100,000 men. 2. When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men's weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped. If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength. 3. Again, if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain. 4. Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor damped, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue. 5. Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays. 6. There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare. 7. It is only one who is thoroughly acquainted with the evils of war that can thoroughly understand the profitable way of carrying it on. 8. The skillful soldier does not raise a second levy, neither are his supply-wagons loaded more than twice. 9. Bring war material with you from home, but forage on the enemy. Thus the army will have food enough for its needs. 10. Poverty of the State exchequer causes an army to be maintained by contributions from a distance. Contributing to maintain an army at a distance causes the people to be impoverished. 11. On the other hand, the proximity of an army causes prices to go up; and high prices cause the people's substance to be drained away. 12. When their substance is drained away, the peasantry will be afflicted by heavy exactions. 13,14. With this loss of substance and exhaustion of strength, the homes of the people will be stripped bare, and three-tenths of their income will be dissipated; while government expenses for broken chariots, worn-out horses, breast-plates and helmets, bows and arrows, spears and shields, protective mantles, draught-oxen and heavy wagons, will amount to four-tenths of its total revenue. 15. Hence a wise general makes a point of foraging on the enemy. One cartload of the enemy's provisions is equivalent to twenty of one's own, and likewise a single picul of his provender is equivalent to twenty from one's own store. 16. Now in order to kill the enemy, our men must be roused to anger; that there may be advantage from defeating the enemy, they must have their rewards. 17. Therefore in chariot fighting, when ten or more chariots have been taken, those should be rewarded who took the first. Our own flags should be substituted for those of the enemy, and the chariots mingled and used in conjunction with ours. The captured soldiers should be kindly treated and kept. 18. This is called, using the conquered foe to augment one's own strength. 19. In war, then, let your great object be victory, not lengthy campaigns. 20. Thus it may be known that the leader of armies is the arbiter of the people's fate, the man on whom it depends whether the nation shall be in peace or in peril. REMEMBER YOU ARE AT WAR WHEN YOU ARE TRADING. Who do you thinks benefits when you take the LONG TERM APPROACH TO TRADING? TO BE CONTINUED... |
Small victories. In and out. Makes sense...
"Do not go Past the Mark you Aimed for; In Victory, Learn when to Stop" This is a key rules for traders. Setting your goals (both for profit and loss) and sticking to them. The Plan. |
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The better you statistics the better your trades because you know when you your "edge" appears. Blackjack card counting is NOT permitted. Traders can count whatever they want. L1H0 - number of pips from previous bar low to current bar high. H1L0 - number of pips from previous bar high to current bar low. +/- - number of higher/lower open/high/low/close. HH - percent of higher highs LH - percent of lower highs HL - percent of higher lows LL - percent of lower lows USE YOUR EDGE! |
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naaaah, dont ever stop until the enemy is completely obliterated. then they have no opportunity to mount a revenge attack :P
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when you reach your target, move your stop up to wherever your target is and either let it run until you had enough, or put a trailing stop of 10 pips or so on it and let it run its course. you cant lose either way and the risk to reward ratio is then zero risk to unlimited possible reward for the remainder of the trade. let it run and go look for more trades to enter. in war, you cant move your stop up to a point where you can no longer lose, you can still lose until the battle is over....in forex the battle may still be going on, but you may be at the point where you can no longer lose. |
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This is what I was asking about. How can you COMPLETELY OBLITERATE your enemy in FOREX? DO NOT EVER THINK YOU CAN NEVER LOSE. ALL IT TAKES IS YOUR COMPUTER, YOUR NETWORK, THE BROKER'S NETWORK, OR THE POWER GRID TO FAIL AND THE PRICE COULD REVERSE ON YOU, BLOW PAST YOUR STOP AND YOU COULD BE OBLITERATED!! NOT TO MENTION A TERRORIST BOMBING, WAR BREAKING OUT OR A NATURAL DISASTER COULD CAUSE AN IMMEDIATE 100+ PIP REVERSAL. AN OPEN TRADE IS NEVER SAFE!! FREE MT4 INDICATORS HERE |
aye,
but the chances of most of those things happening AND causing an
immediate 100+ pip movement AND having that 100pip movement go the
opposite direction of your trade are extremely remote. AND since you
can either be long, or short, there's as much chance that those things
will work FOR you as there is they will work AGAINST you (50/50), and
by the time one of them does happen AND goes against you, you would
have made far more from moving up the stop and allowing it to continue
than you would ever lose from even a highly extreme 200 pip jump past
your stop.
every big win has the chance of completely obliterating a fellow trader thats on the other end of your trade, clearly it will not be a bank, but one of the 90% of retail traders that get obliterated all the time. Maximising your potential profits also maximises the chance of that happening to someone else, allowing the trade to continue once the initial target profits are locked in allows you to maximise the profits. it may be a war, but there is more than one way to fight it. |
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in
the S/R chart MT4 indicator you created, if the coming bar broke the
S/R, and you already in a trade at the price indicated by the system,
do you stop lose, if so, how much pip before take lose, sometimes the
pivo point from S/R is far away.
By looking at the chart, I see some lose trades, but of course some winning trades, so how do you select trades? |
Different folks, different strokes.
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Trading is war and your money is your army and it must be protected!!!! Know your enemy well he is trying to kill you. If you approach trading like war you are more likely to be successfull because far to many people are casual and they don't realize when there are winners there are losers. Dont be a loser, be prepared be vigilant be "nimble" as another great trader FTI would say. TRO this thread advances so fast im greatful for your time and efforts in teaching us. btw how cool would an art of war indicator be???? |
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The way the system calculates risk is the number of pips between the go long line and support which is the same as the number of pips between the go short line and resistance. So the STOP would be at support or resistance. But that's NOT how I trade it. HINT: I posted about position sizing and risk management. On which chart do you see losing trades? |
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The Day You Start To Focus On Your Trade, Your Method, Your Account, Your Etc.... And Stop Focusing On Others, Is The Day You Take Your First Step As A Real Trader. NOTICE HOW I ASK YOU QUESTIONS. NOTICE HOW I WANT YOU TO QUESTION YOUR BELIEFS AND THOUGHTS. NOTICE HOW YOU BRAIN REACTS. TO BE CONTINUED.... |
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I am NOT the one teaching you. YOU ARE LEARNING FOR YOURSELF. Would you like to propose a formula for the art of war indicator? Don't you see how using dynamic support and resistance with fib retraces draws the BATTLE LINES for you? I posted that indicator, with source code, so you can download it FREE. |
Using
this latest chart, at the bar #8, it is a long down bar, but when in
real time, it will hit the Blue Support and eventually break it. So if
during that bar, it bounced off the Blue Support, and become a Long
trade, then it goes passed the Blue Support line, that is a lose trade,
but of course that might not happen in this case.
There are many of these trades, since support/resistance are going to break one point of another, that's why I say there is one that will not hold and become a lose trade, even I have SL that is just below/above S/R. So perhaps you have other ways to select trade, or money management(SL still count as a lose, which is normal as a trader), or other technique to avoid it. |
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The cool thing about the TRO SR RR indicator is you can shift it back. Notice the TRO SR RR (21).12. I set it back 12 bars so we can see what we would do. First trade after the blue arrowhead, the candle color is GREEN at the go Long line so we have a winner. 2 bars later, the candle color is GREEN at the go Long line so we have a winner. Notice the candle color of the BIG RED BAR is RED AT THE LINE!!! YOU DO NOT GO LONG AT THE LINE IF THE CANDLE IS RED!! So show me the loser ;) TO BE CONTINUED... |
NEVER LOSE AGAIN!!
http://i33.tinypic.com/wa14s9.gif Continuing forward, we see more GREEN bars at the go Long line giving profitable trades. REMEMBER, EVERYTHING YOU HAVE BEEN TOLD AND TAUGHT COULD BE BACKWARDS! TO BE CONTINUED... |
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Just
had a look at the dynamic fibs sr and it looks pretty useful. but im
not sure if i have discovered a bug or not. I set the iPeriods to 21
thinking it would then show s/r going back 21 bars, but as you can see
from the attached chart the current support line is drawn from a lot
further back than 21 bars. I had a quick look at the code but couldnt
see what it was doing, it seems to do the same with resistance as well.
not sure if i have understood something wrong or if there is a bug
somewhere.
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TRO_DYNAMIC_FIBS_SR is DYNAMIC. It will SELF ADJUST using my "secret" formula. Those S/R dots are pretty darn accurate. Do you see in the chart, when the RED dots showed you the dynamic resistance? This indicator does NOT repaint. The dots move in real time and then STAY PUT after the bar closes. It's not just the HH/LL for the last 21 bars like the TRO_SupResHHLL (ATTACHED). |
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