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mastersnap 09-02-2008 03:57 PM

So my summary of what I have learned from this post is that you successfully trade basically with the following setup....

1. 5 minute chart.
2. Normally on the GBP / JPY pair, but others should work as well.
3. You use MB trading because they are an ECN broker.
4. You use the last 21 bars on the 5 minute chart to plot your high and low entry points. (What you call the SR and RR)
5. You trade with the hourly trend (as shown by the current 1 hour candle).
6. You only use limit orders in order to insure that you get the entry price and exit price you want.
7. You use Metatrader due to the programmable interface items you can put on the charts (and have nicely provided as well, thank you!).
8. You enter trades after the bounce off of their support or resistance and then cross your limit price.

So that is my basic understanding of your system, I agree that it is in many ways simple, as trading should be. Use the obvious to help you to success (like what direction we are going for the hour, or the day or the minute). Basically though I am still left with one question that haunts me.... what do you use as an exit? Do you set a take profit target, or set a trailing stop? If so, how do you determine the target, or how many pips do you use for your trailing? What about a stop loss if things reverse on you? Do you just set it a few pips past the resistance or support that you have already plotted?

Thanks ahead of time!

:)

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ewokuk (Post 65883)
you know you can get the ask line in mt4 just by clicking the ask line checkbox?

right click chart, go to properties, click common, check the 'show ask line' box :D

is there an indicator that draws the lines at 25,50,75,00? save me trying to code one myself

Thanks.. I didn't know about the Ask Line.

Yes, the indicator is the SweetSpots Gold indicator. I posted it in the HORIZONTAL LINE THREAD.

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mastersnap (Post 65891)
So my summary of what I have learned from this post is that you successfully trade basically with the following setup....

1. 5 minute chart.
2. Normally on the GBP / JPY pair, but others should work as well.
3. You use MB trading because they are an ECN broker.
4. You use the last 21 bars on the 5 minute chart to plot your high and low entry points. (What you call the SR and RR)
5. You trade with the hourly trend (as shown by the current 1 hour candle).
6. You only use limit orders in order to insure that you get the entry price and exit price you want.
7. You use Metatrader due to the programmable interface items you can put on the charts (and have nicely provided as well, thank you!).
8. You enter trades after the bounce off of their support or resistance and then cross your limit price.

So that is my basic understanding of your system, I agree that it is in many ways simple, as trading should be. Use the obvious to help you to success (like what direction we are going for the hour, or the day or the minute). Basically though I am still left with one question that haunts me.... what do you use as an exit? Do you set a take profit target, or set a trailing stop? If so, how do you determine the target, or how many pips do you use for your trailing? What about a stop loss if things reverse on you? Do you just set it a few pips past the resistance or support that you have already plotted?

Thanks ahead of time!

:)

4. I use bars 1 - 21. Bar 0 is the current bar.

5. If I go counter trend, it's for a quick scalp usually exit at/before the 23% Fib Retrace.

7. I started programming in MT4 so my buddies could have access to free charts. I also use eSignal and TradeStation.

8. Yes, I enter trades when TRO SR RR tells me. It has an alert ;)

EXIT: I take profit when I can usually leaving too many pips on the table. Depending on the trade, I sometimes set a limit exit so they "hit me". Other times I just ride it.

TARGET: Usually the fib retrace plots. Sometimes, I'll use a "mental" 2 or 3 pips trailing stop. Yes, they wiggle me out of the trade sometimes.

STOP LOSS: I do NOT use a STOP LOSS. I will make another entry at the go line because I "know" price will eventually retrace. BUT IF YOU FEEL YOU MUST USE A STOP, THEN THE SL IS SUPPORT - 1 PIP OR RESISTANCE + 1 PIP.

johnnykanoo 09-02-2008 04:37 PM

TRO you say ask better questions. I don't use indicators in my trading I only use s/r levels and some candle patterns.

In my entire trading career ive never used a channel of any sort but i assumed a channel would have lines in it i guess i was mistaken.

also what does PAIN mean and how did you derive your values on your template????? they don't even come close or in anyway relate to the acual price.

so pardon my ignorance i cannot use your template for anything at all becaus eI have no idea what i am looking at.

as far as trend on the guppy i still see a short bias. the bulls are weak. id post a chart but i guess i don't know how to :(

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 04:38 PM

http://i33.tinypic.com/2ew1dw8.jpg

LOOK AT THE CHART AND TELL ME WHAT YOU SEE.

OBSERVATIONS ONLY.

THIS IS KEY IN YOUR TRAINING TO NEVER LOSE AGAIN.

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 04:39 PM

http://i33.tinypic.com/2cie26e.gif

HINT: THIS IS A M15 CHART.

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 04:41 PM

http://i38.tinypic.com/27y998l.gif

HINT: THIS IS AN H1 CHART.

HINT: CANDLE STICK PATTERN ANSWERS ARE INCORRECT!!

johnnykanoo 09-02-2008 04:42 PM

ok i saw your link for pain. according to your template pain is .0043 but right now price is 193.60?? i read real fast that pain is some corelation price between hi low open close but i still fail to see any relation to the guppy. i would post this chart but i dnt have time i gotta go for now a builder is calling about a 30,000 sq ft warehouse space.

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 05:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnykanoo (Post 65911)
ok i saw your link for pain. according to your template pain is .0043 but right now price is 193.60?? i read real fast that pain is some corelation price between hi low open close but i still fail to see any relation to the guppy. i would post this chart but i dnt have time i gotta go for now a builder is calling about a 30,000 sq ft warehouse space.

http://i34.tinypic.com/vra5pl.gif

Perhaps if you look at "pain" on multiple time frames it may make sense.

ewokuk 09-02-2008 05:11 PM

on the m5 i saw a downtrend, an uptrend when it retraced, and another downtrend :D on the other charts i saw a bit of a mess

mastersnap 09-02-2008 05:25 PM

Yes.... another question...

What hours do you trade? Do you feel that it is valid to trade at any time of the day, or (for example) just when London is open?

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mastersnap (Post 65917)
Yes.... another question...

What hours do you trade? Do you feel that it is valid to trade at any time of the day, or (for example) just when London is open?

Did you answer my questions?

QUID PRO QUO!

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ewokuk (Post 65913)
on the m5 i saw a downtrend, an uptrend when it retraced, and another downtrend :D on the other charts i saw a bit of a mess

Your grade is

F

"Downtrend" and "Uptrend" are INTERPRETATIONS!

You must learn to SEE!

Do it over.

mastersnap 09-02-2008 05:35 PM

I gather from that response that you mean to say that basically what you see is what you get, and any time is as good as the next as long as you just work with what you see.

My overall interpretation of the forex market in general is that it is VERY random on a day by day, hour by hour, and minute by minute basis, so as long as I am willing to stay in a trade I will likely get my take profit target hit at some point in the future. So, trade with the trend and take a little at a time when you can and call it good.

ewokuk 09-02-2008 05:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 65920)
Your grade is

F

"Downtrend" and "Uptrend" are INTERPRETATIONS!

You must learn to SEE!

Do it over.

then i must be confused. there was a 60 pip drop, thats a downtrend. then a 50 pip rise, an uptrend, then a 50 pip drop, another downtrend. you said yourself the trend is whatever its doing at the moment, well thats what it was doing at that time so they surely arent interpretations they are fact, it happened.

i also see it seems to have just bounced off the support line for a 3rd time but probably hasnt gone back up enough yet to be worth a long entry.

Sweet Pip 09-02-2008 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 65908)
http://i33.tinypic.com/2ew1dw8.jpg

LOOK AT THE CHART AND TELL ME WHAT YOU SEE.

OBSERVATIONS ONLY.

THIS IS KEY IN YOUR TRAINING TO NEVER LOSE AGAIN.

Hi, I'm back...lots to catch up on :eek:

I have to say at this point that I'm doing much better since this thread started :)

Ok, so skipping ahead a little here (I'll go back to where I left off later) what do I see you ask?

The price at the left is higher than the current price. Between then & now, the price went down (low), up (high), and down (low) again.

The 2nd high didn't get as high as the 1st high (lower high to the leftmost high), and the 2 lows stopped at basically the same level.

The current bar is green...;)

Am I overstating the obvious?

mastersnap 09-02-2008 06:09 PM

I think what TRO is trying to get across is that there are no "trends", it is all random on a certain level (certainly on the shorter time frame charts). Probably even almost completely random on everything up to the daily and longer charts, which even then are somewhat random due to the random nature of life (witness the market instability during hurricane Gustav as proof of this).

So... what do I see... I see that the price on the last chart posted is green. Price is going up now (on that chart). So to oversimplify, I see a buying opportunity. So, whats my grade for that brilliantly simple observation? :P

Sweet Pip 09-02-2008 06:12 PM

Also, the open of some candles is not the same as the close of it's previous candle...does that mean anything?

FXCaribbean 09-02-2008 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Pip (Post 65930)
Also, the open of some candles is not the same as the close of it's previous candle...does that mean anything?

I also see large candles when it falls or it goes up. During the "cool" time (=before the big candles) they are small....

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 06:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mastersnap (Post 65922)
I gather from that response that you mean to say that basically what you see is what you get, and any time is as good as the next as long as you just work with what you see.

My overall interpretation of the forex market in general is that it is VERY random on a day by day, hour by hour, and minute by minute basis, so as long as I am willing to stay in a trade I will likely get my take profit target hit at some point in the future. So, trade with the trend and take a little at a time when you can and call it good.


Your grade is:

F

I did NOT ask for INTERPRETATION.

I asked for OBSERVATION.

WHAT DO YOU SEE?

DO IT OVER.

FXCaribbean 09-02-2008 06:51 PM

wick/shadow are very large when it is at top or bottom candle ....

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ewokuk (Post 65926)
then i must be confused. there was a 60 pip drop, thats a downtrend. then a 50 pip rise, an uptrend, then a 50 pip drop, another downtrend. you said yourself the trend is whatever its doing at the moment, well thats what it was doing at that time so they surely arent interpretations they are fact, it happened.

i also see it seems to have just bounced off the support line for a 3rd time but probably hasnt gone back up enough yet to be worth a long entry.

"PRICE DROPPED 60 PIPS" is an OBSERVATION. Anyone can look at the chart and see that PRICE DROPPED 60 PIPS.

Calling the occurrence of price dropping 60 pips a DOWNTREND is an INTERPRETATION made by the observer and is subject to debate.

There was no SUPPORT LINE in the chart just candles. You are SEEING things that are not there.

Your grade:

F

DO IT OVER.

mastersnap 09-02-2008 06:56 PM

If there is no interpretation, then all that is left is the price that is now, there is nothing else because anything else is projection and interpretation.

But I would have to add to that a little and say that interpretation is necessary at some point as it is useless to randomly choose a direction of movement by refusing to use any of the past evidence and interpret it into at least a direction of movement and thus potential profit.

Failure to do so would be the same as betting on black... it could be red 49% of the time so you would lose, it could be black 49% of the time so you win, but it could also be green 2% of the time, so you would ultimately lose.

So, the only question is what clues to you use to interpret? And how do you translate those into trades? I think I know quite a bit about how you do that, but am always open to learning (or unlearning) more.

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Pip (Post 65928)
Hi, I'm back...lots to catch up on :eek:

I have to say at this point that I'm doing much better since this thread started :)

Ok, so skipping ahead a little here (I'll go back to where I left off later) what do I see you ask?

The price at the left is higher than the current price. Between then & now, the price went down (low), up (high), and down (low) again.

The 2nd high didn't get as high as the 1st high (lower high to the leftmost high), and the 2 lows stopped at basically the same level.

The current bar is green...;)

Am I overstating the obvious?

THE OBVIOUS IS OFTEN UNSEEN!

You made 3 OBSERVATIONS.

Well done.

But I want you to look a little closer and tell me what you see.

I know you can do better.

Your grade:

B-

HINT: YOU CAN COUNT

FXCaribbean 09-02-2008 06:58 PM

When it falls really it is all red (or green for up).

Asap there are 2 consecutives opposite colors, then the price goes level or reverse.

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mastersnap (Post 65929)
i Think What Tro Is Trying To Get Across Is That There Are No "trends", It Is All Random On A Certain Level (certainly On The Shorter Time Frame Charts). Probably Even Almost Completely Random On Everything Up To The Daily And Longer Charts, Which Even Then Are Somewhat Random Due To The Random Nature Of Life (witness The Market Instability During Hurricane Gustav As Proof Of This).

So... What Do I See... I See That The Price On The Last Chart Posted Is Green. Price Is Going Up Now (on That Chart). So To Oversimplify, I See A Buying Opportunity. So, Whats My Grade For That Brilliantly Simple Observation? :p

Price Is Not Green.

The Candle Is Green.

Nothing Is Moving On The Chart.

A "Buying Opportunity" Is An Interpretation!

Your Grade:

F

Do It Over.

Hint: Quit Thinking. Look At The Chart And Tell Me What You See. A Five Year Old Child Will Be Able To Tell Me What They See. They Will Not Speak Of Candles, Trends, Support Lines, Etc...

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FXCaribbean (Post 65942)
When it falls really it is all red (or green for up).

Asap there are 2 consecutives opposite colors, then the price goes level or reverse.

You are getting warmer.

YOUR GRADE:

B

NOW BE SPECIFIC.

TELL ME EXACTLY WHAT YOU SEE ON THE CHART.

YOU HAVE TO SHUT OFF YOUR BRAIN AND OPEN YOUR EYES. LOOK!!

THEN YOU WILL BE "SEEING" FOR THE FIRST TIME!

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 07:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mastersnap (Post 65940)
If there is no interpretation, then all that is left is the price that is now, there is nothing else because anything else is projection and interpretation.

But I would have to add to that a little and say that interpretation is necessary at some point as it is useless to randomly choose a direction of movement by refusing to use any of the past evidence and interpret it into at least a direction of movement and thus potential profit.

Failure to do so would be the same as betting on black... it could be red 49% of the time so you would lose, it could be black 49% of the time so you win, but it could also be green 2% of the time, so you would ultimately lose.

So, the only question is what clues to you use to interpret? And how do you translate those into trades? I think I know quite a bit about how you do that, but am always open to learning (or unlearning) more.

You are mistaken.

Are you quitting?

NOW LOOK AT THE CHART AND TELL ME WHAT YOU SEE!!

I HAVE GIVEN YOU HINTS.

YES, YOU NEED TO UNLEARN BEGINNING NOW!

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 07:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnykanoo (Post 65907)
TRO you say ask better questions. I don't use indicators in my trading I only use s/r levels and some candle patterns.

In my entire trading career ive never used a channel of any sort but i assumed a channel would have lines in it i guess i was mistaken.

also what does PAIN mean and how did you derive your values on your template????? they don't even come close or in anyway relate to the acual price.

so pardon my ignorance i cannot use your template for anything at all becaus eI have no idea what i am looking at.

as far as trend on the guppy i still see a short bias. the bulls are weak. id post a chart but i guess i don't know how to :(

I posted a link to the PAIN article.

Did you read it?

Posting a chart? Use TinyPic - Free Image Hosting, Photo Sharing & Video Hosting. Upload the chart. Then copy/paste the [IMG] code.

Sweet Pip 09-02-2008 07:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 65941)
THE OBVIOUS IS OFTEN UNSEEN!

You made 3 OBSERVATIONS.

Well done.

But I want you to look a little closer and tell me what you see.

I know you can do better.

Your grade:

B-

HINT: YOU CAN COUNT

Ok, I think I kinda have an idea. If I count the bars between highs & lows, there are mostly about 7, sometimes 5, and occassionally 8. It seems that after a big movement, either up or down, there is a retracement...maybe due to other traders taking profits, or stops getting hit (I know, perhaps an opinion, but it is consistent with your point about what usually happens on Wednesdays. ;) )

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 07:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sweet Pip (Post 65948)
Ok, I think I kinda have an idea. If I count the bars between highs & lows, there are mostly about 7, sometimes 5, and occassionally 8. It seems that after a big movement, either up or down, there is a retracement...maybe due to other traders taking profits, or stops getting hit (I know, perhaps an opinion, but it is consistent with your point about what usually happens on Wednesdays. ;) )

You are getting warmer, almost there.

Your grade:

B+

Leave out the commentary and tell me what you see.

HINT: I POSTED 3 CHARTS, M5, M15 AND H1. REMEMBER WHAT I SAID ABOUT NOISE?

mastersnap 09-02-2008 07:17 PM

I see a recent high of about 194.05 and a recent low of about 193.50. So I see a trading range forming of about 55 pips. So some support at the low and resistance at the high is forming apparently. That is what I see.

daedalus 09-02-2008 07:18 PM

i see price stopping and stalling.

FXCaribbean 09-02-2008 07:49 PM

ok :

M5 : 9 to 11 candles to make up or down, more 2 consecutives reversal colors can happen
M15 : 4 to 5 for the same, no reversal color in the middle
1H : 3 candles for the same, no reversal color in the middle.

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 07:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mastersnap (Post 65951)
I see a recent high of about 194.05 and a recent low of about 193.50. So I see a trading range forming of about 55 pips. So some support at the low and resistance at the high is forming apparently. That is what I see.

Yes, you observed that but there's so much more.

QUIT THINKING.

JUST LOOK AT THE CHART AND TELL ME EXACTLY WHAT YOU SEE.

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE ARE INTERPRETAIONS

YOUR GRADE

D-

HINT: QUIT TRYING SO HARD. DO NOT TRY TO IMPRESS OR BE WITTY. THE SIMPLEST ANSWER WILL GET THE COVETED "A+'.

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daedalus (Post 65952)
i See Price Stopping And Stalling.

No, That Is Not What You See.

The Chart Is Static. Nothing Is Moving. How Can You See Something Stopping If It Is Not Moving?

Quit Interpreting What You See And Just Tell Me What You See?

Your Grade:


F

Hint: What Color Is The Sky? What Color Are The Clouds? You Can Answer Those Questions Correctly, So What's So Hard About Telling Me What You See In The Chart?

I KNOW YOU THINK I AM JUST MESSING WITH YOU BUT I AM NOT. I WANT YOU TO SEE. JUST LOOK AND SEE. NO INTERPRETATION.

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 08:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fxcaribbean (Post 65959)
ok :

M5 : 9 To 11 Candles To Make Up Or Down, More 2 Consecutives Reversal Colors Can Happen
M15 : 4 To 5 For The Same, No Reversal Color In The Middle
1h : 3 Candles For The Same, No Reversal Color In The Middle.

So Close...

Your Grade:

B+

You're Almost There.

HINT: IF YOU CAN SEE IT ON THE H1 CAN YOU SEE IT ON THE M15? IF YOU CAN SEE IT ON THE M5 CAN YOU SEE IT ON THE M15? IF YOU CAN SEE IT ON THE M15 CAN YOU SEE IT ON THE M5?

Sweet Pip 09-02-2008 08:13 PM

The H1 is made up of (12) M5 candles or (4) M15 candles,
The M15 is made up of (3) M5 candles or (15) M1 candles,
The M5 is made up of (5) M1 candles...

...

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 08:14 PM

THIS JUST HAPPENED AND WHILE I WAS POSTING, I MADE 25 PIPS.

DO YOU SEE WHAT HAPPENED?



http://i33.tinypic.com/29osxnk.gif


http://i36.tinypic.com/jt8e0x.gif


http://i33.tinypic.com/24nplhl.gif


I WASN'T PLANNING ON TRADING BECAUSE I WAS POSTING.

NORMALLY, I WATCH THE M5.

I LOOKED UP AND SAW "IT" ON THE H1 CHART.

SO I IMMEDIATELY CLICKED BUY.

THEN I WENT BACK TO POSTING.

I LOOKED AGAIN AND CLICKED SELL.

HAD I BEEN PAYING ATTENTION, IT WOULD HAVE BEEN 40 PIPS OR BETTER.

I USED NO INDICATORS.

ALL I DID WAS LOOK AT THE CHART AND REACT TO WHAT I SAW.

M5, M15 AND H1 CHART.

CAN YOU SEE WHAT HAPPENED?

CAN YOU SEE WHEN TO ENTER THE TRADE?

DO YOU SEE WHAT YOU NEED TO WAIT FOR BEFORE YOU ENTER THE TRADE?

IT IS RIGHT IN FRONT OF YOUR EYES!

ALL YOU HAVE TO DO IS LOOK AND SEE!

TheRumpledOne 09-02-2008 08:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sweet Pip (Post 65969)
the H1 Is Made Up Of (12) M5 Candles Or (4) M15 Candles,
The M15 Is Made Up Of (3) M5 Candles Or (15) M1 Candles,
The M5 Is Made Up Of (5) M1 Candles...

...

That Is A Statement Not An Observation.

no Grade.

But You Are Getting Warmer.

Now, Just See It!


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