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-   -   Never Lose Again!! (http://forums.babypips.com/show-me-money-daytrading/16021-never-lose-again.html)

TheRumpledOne 08-28-2008 05:30 PM

http://i34.tinypic.com/xknls5.gif

We can look at the same M5 chart.

See support and resistance?

See the 1-2-3 candle patterns?

See the candle pivots?

Time and Sales.

Does this help you "SEE IT"?

TheRumpledOne 08-28-2008 07:30 PM

http://i38.tinypic.com/5p34hw.gif

"THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND."

We've all heard that at least once, right? LOL!

WHAT IS TREND?

DO YOU KNOW IT WHEN YOU SEE IT?

IS TREND SIMPLE TO SEE AND IDENTIFY?

HOW DO YOU KNOW WHAT THE TREND IS?

WHAT DOES TREND MATTER TO YOU AS A TRADER?

TO BE CONTINUED...

TheRumpledOne 08-28-2008 07:32 PM

http://i38.tinypic.com/243iyvs.gif


IS THE TREND UP? DOWN?

TheRumpledOne 08-28-2008 07:34 PM

http://i38.tinypic.com/281h2ma.gif

IS THERE REALLY A TREND?

OR WERE YOU FOOLED INTO THINKING THERE'S A TREND?


WHAT IS REAL?

THERE IS NO...

TO BE CONTINUED...

TheRumpledOne 08-28-2008 08:49 PM

http://i36.tinypic.com/fe4g8o.gif

IS THE TREND UP OR DOWN?

WHICH WAY WILL YOU TRADE?

TheRumpledOne 08-28-2008 09:29 PM

http://i34.tinypic.com/rh940j.gif

What's the reason this always seems to work?

HINT: I have been showing you LONG ENTRIES during a "down trend".

TheRumpledOne 08-28-2008 10:11 PM

http://i37.tinypic.com/vgk6ed.gif

Another long trade off support.

Position size / money management is key.

Support moved down, position was added to and profit taken at the 38% fib retrace.

edacsac 08-28-2008 10:16 PM

Not quite seeing 1-2-3 patterns.

TheRumpledOne 08-28-2008 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edacsac (Post 65212)
Not quite seeing 1-2-3 patterns.

http://i33.tinypic.com/2i6e5vq.gif

See the arrowheads.

1-2-3 candle 2 has a higher high and / or lower low than candles 1 and 3

or

The candle in the middle has a higher high and / or lower low than the candle to its left and candle to its right.

edacsac 08-28-2008 10:52 PM

Thats awesome.

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 01:24 AM

http://i33.tinypic.com/33lnvwl.gif

In the bottom window, the green lines are plotted every minute. That's a 1 tick chart. That's the REAL MARKET. Everything else is an ILLUSION.

DO NOT BE FOOLED.

TO BE CONTINUED...

edacsac 08-29-2008 02:39 AM

Is it a matter of being fooled, or is it just realizing tick-by-tick price action being consolidated into neatly packaged intervals of time that we view in our charts? Do you use a tick-by-tick chart for anything?

Thank you for this thread. I think I've gained more understanding from this thread than anything else I've read so far. I now understand pivot points, I was able to draw fibonacci retracement lines today and actually see the price action interact with them. And most of all, I've made quite a few good trades in past day or so, using little more than horizontal lines!

I do have a question though: A few posts back you sort of de-emphasized the usefulness of "the trend". In another thread we talked about moving averages and a fella asked what a good moving average setup would be. In your answer, you mentioned to never trade against the directional bias. Wouldn't a 50MA for example be similar to a trend?

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 08:25 AM

edacsac:

Quote:

Is it a matter of being fooled, or is it just realizing tick-by-tick price action being consolidated into neatly packaged intervals of time that we view in our charts? Do you use a tick-by-tick chart for anything?

If you believe anything other than a 1 Tick chart is "real" than you have been FOOLED. "THE MAP IS NOT THE TERRITORY". You must understand this. You must learn to SEE what is really there and not your perception/interpretation. Yes, I use a 1 Tick chart to watch the market. Some call it "noise". That noise IS the market.


Quote:

Thank you for this thread. I think I've gained more understanding from this thread than anything else I've read so far. I now understand pivot points, I was able to draw fibonacci retracement lines today and actually see the price action interact with them. And most of all, I've made quite a few good trades in past day or so, using little more than horizontal lines!
You are welcome.

Quote:

I do have a question though: A few posts back you sort of de-emphasized the usefulness of "the trend". In another thread we talked about moving averages and a fella asked what a good moving average setup would be. In your answer, you mentioned to never trade against the directional bias. Wouldn't a 50MA for example be similar to a trend?
I asked QUESTIONS about TREND to challenge you to THINK and SEE. Before I answer your question about TREND, you must go back and answer my questions about TREND.

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 08:29 AM

http://i37.tinypic.com/149w7r4.gif



LOOK AT THE ABOVE CANDLE CHART AND TELL ME WHAT YOU SEE.

HINT: "INTERPRETATIONS", "OPINIONS", AND "ANALYSIS" ARE INCORRECT ANSWERS.

WHAT IS THE REASON WE USE CANDLE OR BAR CHARTS INSTEAD OF LINE CHARTS?

TO BE CONTINUED...

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 08:58 AM

http://i37.tinypic.com/j0f80w.gif

WHAT IS THE REASON SOME PEOPLE TELL YOU TO AVOID TRADING ON FRIDAYS?

DOES PRICE KNOW WHAT DAY OF THE WEEK IT IS?

pintodave 08-29-2008 09:58 AM

My answer might qualify as "analysis", but I'll take a stab at it anyways...

In the M1 Candle chart I see that half of the candles have shadows that add up to be longer than the real body of the candle.

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pintodave (Post 65297)
My answer might qualify as "analysis", but I'll take a stab at it anyways...

In the M1 Candle chart I see that half of the candles have shadows that add up to be longer than the real body of the candle.

That is OBSERVATION!

Very well, done.

A+

Sweet Pip 08-29-2008 01:08 PM

Well I'm off for the weekend...heading up the Sound on our boat for one last summer holiday. Don't think I'll get an internet connection, so in case I don't, looking forward to more good stuff when I get back on Monday :D

See ya :)

edacsac 08-29-2008 01:23 PM

Quote:

WHAT IS TREND?
Trend is the prevailing direction of price movement.

Quote:

DO YOU KNOW IT WHEN YOU SEE IT?
Yes.

Quote:

IS TREND SIMPLE TO SEE AND IDENTIFY?
Depending on far back you decide include in your search for trend, it could be.

Quote:

HOW DO YOU KNOW WHAT THE TREND IS?
By looking at price direction based on the prvious answer.

Quote:

WHAT DOES TREND MATTER TO YOU AS A TRADER?
Another tool in the traders toolbox.

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 02:34 PM

http://i34.tinypic.com/nvr2oy.gif

We all know the GBPJPY has been "trending down" all week, right?

Yet, I have been showing you how this method makes profitable LONG trades in a DOWN MARKET.

Wonder why?

If I showed you profitable SHORT trades that would be easy. You would say, "Yeah, but the market is going down. What's the big deal, anyone can do it?"

Right?

Remember, I asked you if TREND mattered to you as a trader.

I'll ask again, DOES TREND MATTER?

TO BE CONTINUED...

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edacsac (Post 65323)
Trend is the prevailing direction of price movement.



Yes.



Depending on far back you decide include in your search for trend, it could be.



By looking at price direction based on the prvious answer.



Another tool in the traders toolbox.

Good answers.

A+

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 02:42 PM

http://i35.tinypic.com/nmep89.gif

I usually show you a M5 chart.

Here's the same method on an H1 chart.

Once again, a winning long trade in a down market.

HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE?

If you can go LONG and win in a down market and go SHORT and win in an up market then you NEVER HAVE TO LOSE AGAIN!!

TO BE CONTINUED...

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 02:50 PM

DOES THE INDICATOR REPAINT?

YES.

Sooner or later someone will come along and ask if my indicator repaints because if it does then it's no good.

What they fail to realize is the market is dynamic and so is the indicator. Why would I want to use a static indicator when the market is open? I want REAL TIME INFORMATION, not static, not delayed.

If I enter a trade and the market moves against me, I want to know where the next entry is. Then I can decide to add to the position, hold the position or stop out. If the indicator didn't "repaint", then how would I know?

"IT'S NOT THE INDICATOR, IT'S HOW YOU USE IT!"

And when you "arrive", you won't need indicators at all.

When you trade, there's risk involved. You need to manage your money. Your method must be designed to "win".

IS YOUR METHOD DESIGNED TO WIN?

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 03:45 PM

http://i38.tinypic.com/2qmi1le.gif

Another winning long trade in a "down" market.

Is the "market" down?

COMPARED TO WHAT?

TO BE CONTINUED...

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 05:58 PM

http://i35.tinypic.com/2afxssk.gif

There's a SHORT winning trade.

No big deal in a down market.

If you have been following along, you have seen winning trades.

I know someone is wondering about the LOSERS, aren't you?

Not every entry is a winner. But with position sizing and risk management, the net result is a gain. It's more my fault than the method's because I sometimes jump in a little early. Moving to a M15 or M30 chart can cure early entry problems.

TO BE CONTINUED...

mach_one_man 08-29-2008 06:00 PM

First Post
 
I gather the Support and Resistance is solely calculated from High and Low of the last 21 bars? Is this correct?

Please could you explain how you calculate your "Go Long and Go Short" entries? This really intrigues me.

I have read the thread a few times and I can't figure out,

Thanks again for your wonderful thread!

Edit: TRO/anybody where can I download the SR RR(21) Indicator, Thanks.

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 06:02 PM

I would like to hear from more of you.

There are plenty of questions for you to answer.

Don't be afraid.

I'll grade fair :p

And feel free to ask questions.

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 06:44 PM

http://i36.tinypic.com/efig5s.gif

Many systems use sma(5) , sma(10), sma(50), stochastics and MACD.

Take a good look at the chart.

Do you really need them?

Do they tell you something that PRICE isn't telling you?

All my indicator does is draw a line at the highest high and lowest low of the last 21 periods offset by 1 bar ( so the current bar doesn't move the line until it closes). As I stated earlier, 21 is NOT some magical number. I could use 20 or 22 or 33 or 44 or 55 or...

Do I really need anything other than PRICE itself to tell me that it has bottomed? Peaked? Is going up or down?

If you follow my post you know my indicators ANALYZE PRICE. There isn't some esoteric formula that produces anything that PRICE can't tell me.

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 07:50 PM

1 Attachment(s)
NEVER LOSE AGAIN!!



1) Did you get CLOBBERED by the market during the big drop in the Pound and the Euro?


http://i38.tinypic.com/2ebei6c.gif

http://i37.tinypic.com/2mpzdld.gif


2) Did you get caught short when the US Dollar ran up?


http://i33.tinypic.com/2zstull.gif

http://i37.tinypic.com/16jodu0.gif




3) Did you look at the MONTHLY CHARTS BEFORE those events?


If you answered YES to 1 and/or 2 and NO to 3 THAT'S THE PROBLEM!!


WEEKLY HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT


Attached is a zip file with a modified version of a linear regression indicator and my new TRO TREND STATS.

A template is included ( remember to put it in the TEMPLATE folder that is in the METATRADER folder and NOT the template folder in the indicator folder. )

When you see price at/near one of the outer lines, it will want to "regress" to the middle line.

After you view for the month, you then view for the week.

THIS WILL GIVE YOU THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE VIEW.

This homework assignment should be completed BEFORE your first trade of the week.

In fact, I would like it if each of you posted one chart here and discuss what you see on the chart.

Thanks.

MT4 TEMPLATE AND INDICATORS ( INCLUDING SOURCE CODE ) ATTACHED.

pipnailer 08-29-2008 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 65357)
NEVER LOSE AGAIN!!



1) Did you get CLOBBERED by the market during the big drop in the Pound and the Euro?


http://i38.tinypic.com/2ebei6c.gif

http://i37.tinypic.com/2mpzdld.gif


2) Did you get caught short when the US Dollar ran up?


http://i33.tinypic.com/2zstull.gif

http://i37.tinypic.com/16jodu0.gif




3) Did you look at the MONTHLY CHARTS BEFORE those events?


If you answered YES to 1 and/or 2 and NO to 3 THAT'S THE PROBLEM!!


WEEKLY HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENT


Attached is a zip file with a modified version of a linear regression indicator and my new TRO TREND STATS.

A template is included ( remember to put it in the TEMPLATE folder that is in the METATRADER folder and NOT the template folder in the indicator folder. )

When you see price at/near one of the outer lines, it will want to "regress" to the middle line.

After you view for the month, you then view for the week.

THIS WILL GIVE YOU THE OVERALL BIG PICTURE VIEW.

This homework assignment should be completed BEFORE your first trade of the week.

In fact, I would like it if each of you posted one chart here and discuss what you see on the chart.

Thanks.

MT4 TEMPLATE AND INDICATORS ( INCLUDING SOURCE CODE ) ATTACHED.


Cant load your attached file. An error message keeps coming up asking me to contact admin.

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 11:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mach_one_man (Post 65348)
I gather the Support and Resistance is solely calculated from High and Low of the last 21 bars? Is this correct?

Please could you explain how you calculate your "Go Long and Go Short" entries? This really intrigues me.

I have read the thread a few times and I can't figure out,

Thanks again for your wonderful thread!

Edit: TRO/anybody where can I download the SR RR(21) Indicator, Thanks.

Yes, I calculate support as the lowest low and resistance as the highest high over the last 21 bars. Remember it could be 20 or 22... There is no magic number.

GO LONG and GO SHORT are calculated by using the pivot point, (H+L+C)/3, of the bar making the high or low, whichever is the most recent.

You're welcome.

You can't download the TRO SR RR. It is one of the indicators I send out as a THANK YOU to people who have donated to my PayPal account. I posted my TRO DYNAMIC FIBS SR indicator on BabyPips for FREE. You can use that indicator and set the bars input to 21. Actually, that indicator has my "secret" formula for calculating Dynamic S/R. Thanks for reminding me, I need to add that code to TRO SR RR making it TRO DYNAMIC SR RR!

It does matter which S/R indicator you use. You can use Barry's version of Support and Resistance. What is "key" is watching the price action around support and resistance and then entering as price moves away from the line.

HINT: So long as you are NOT colorblind, it's simple.

TheRumpledOne 08-29-2008 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pipnailer (Post 65361)
Cant load your attached file. An error message keeps coming up asking me to contact admin.

I just tested this from a computer other than mine and it worked.

Are you running WINDOWS VISTA?

If YES, get XP immediately!!

I REFUSE TO WORK ON WINDOWS VISTA MACHINES!

Did MICROSOFT actually have a "focus group" try Vista?

pintodave 08-30-2008 02:35 AM

Linear regression. I dont know exactly what I need to say about it, but it is important.

mach_one_man 08-30-2008 04:27 AM

Thanks for explaining the Support and Resistance TRO :)

I am still confused about the Trend, to answer the question, "Does the Trend Matter?" I initially was thinking that the answer would be NO as you have proved that you can profit from Shorts in a Bullish market and Longs in a Bearish market. (As well as profiting with the trend direction!)

However, you then post about checking the longer term charts, monthly's, weekly's e.t.c to look at the "big picture" trend. If you can profit from both long and short trades when the market is falling or rising, why do you need to know where the long term trend is headed?

I presume the very short term trend needs to be heading in your direction to profit, hence the trend does matter so the answer is YES,

Or have I just got myself confused here!

pintodave 08-30-2008 12:36 PM

Well I gotta tell ya, I have been staring at charts an awful lot the past couple days (maybe too much lol) and playing with setting, studies, "squiggly lines", etc...

Now I am just an armchair quarterback so to speak, as I have yet to make a "real" forex trade, even though I have done other various types of stock market investing and trading. Therefore I am not going to go into what settings and stuff I have been playing with on the charts because it really doesnt matter because I dont know if it will work or not. If it seems to work, I'll definatly post it so everyone can check it out and critique it. Trust me it is "dumb simple".

Here is what I will say - I tried applying MACD, Stoc., and a bunch of other stuff (I personally had liked MACD) and once I had a couple of MA's on the chart that I played with the time settings on, that seemed to tell me everything I needed to know (maybe more) than having a ton of studies all over the place. Which would reason that as TRO has been saying, maybe I (we) really are trying to over complicate this.

I also liked the Linear Regression Trendline, there is always regression to the mean :) It would seem that when you are way above it, there is a better chance that it is going back to it (or through it) than to continue higher, and vise-versa when you are way below it.

TheRumpledOne 08-30-2008 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mach_one_man (Post 65388)
Thanks for explaining the Support and Resistance TRO :)

I am still confused about the Trend, to answer the question, "Does the Trend Matter?" I initially was thinking that the answer would be NO as you have proved that you can profit from Shorts in a Bullish market and Longs in a Bearish market. (As well as profiting with the trend direction!)

However, you then post about checking the longer term charts, monthly's, weekly's e.t.c to look at the "big picture" trend. If you can profit from both long and short trades when the market is falling or rising, why do you need to know where the long term trend is headed?

I presume the very short term trend needs to be heading in your direction to profit, hence the trend does matter so the answer is YES,

Or have I just got myself confused here!

If you are CONFUSED, then you are LEARNING SOMETHING NEW or at least OPEN to learning something new.

Think about it...

You believe you understand something.

Then you get new material that is CONTRARY or DIFFERENT from what you believe.

You don't know what to believe, so you get CONFUSED.

You have to sort things out and come to a NEW CONCLUSION.

At one time, people thought the earth was flat and that the earth was the center of the universe. Challenging that belief could result in DEATH. The Church wouldn't have you believe otherwise. But along came PROOF that the world is a sphere and is NOT the center of the universe.

I am so happy for you that you are confused. :) ;)

TheRumpledOne 08-30-2008 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pintodave (Post 65380)
Linear regression. I dont know exactly what I need to say about it, but it is important.

To paraphrase COOL HAND LUKE. my favorite movie of all time:

"SOMETIMES NOTHING IS A PRETTY COOL THING TO SAY"


COOL HAND LUKE

TheRumpledOne 08-30-2008 01:38 PM

CAN YOU SEE THE TREND IN THIS CHART?

http://i35.tinypic.com/1zmi90i.gif


IS THE TREND UP OR DOWN?


http://i33.tinypic.com/357n8us.gif


YOU WERE PROBABLY TAUGHT TO DRAW TREND LINES LIKE ABOVE, RIGHT?

DO THEY TELL YOU WHAT THE TREND IS?

CAN YOU SEE THE TREND?



TREND AS YOU HAVE NEVER SEEN IT BEFORE


http://i37.tinypic.com/sbsrno.gif


TRO TREND MAP


http://i33.tinypic.com/2qlygyc.gif


If you zoom in, you can see the trend, right?

Do you have any question which way price it heading?

You see, TREND is what YOU OBSERVE IT TO BE.

Are you familiar with the writings of Stephan Hawking?

I have read "A BRIEF HISTORY OF TIME" by Stephen Hawking and it gave me some ideas for trading.

p-10

"... A theory is a good theory if it satisfies two requirements. It must accurately describe a large class of observations on the basis of a model that contains only a few arbitrary elements, and it must make definite predictions about the results of future observations...."

p-58

"In general, quantum mechanics does not predict a single definite result for an observation. Instead, it predicts a number of different possible outcomes and tells us how likely each of these is. ...."

p-183

"With the advent of quantum mechanics, we have come to recognize that events cannot be predicted with complete accuracy but that there is always a degree of uncertainty. ...."


That sure sounds a lot like trading, filter writing, indicator coding, etc...

It also "validates" my statistical approach to trading because the statistics will show what has happened when certain criteria have been met. In fact, I believe you can use any indicator and then apply statistical analysis to the currencies the indicator selected to find which currencies are most likely to generate profit.

Many of you have probably heard that KNOWLEDGE IS POWER. That was further refined to APPLIED KNOWLEDGE IS POWER. I have made this revision:

"Knowledge applied properly, at the appropriate time, is profitable."

1) You have to have the knowledge

2) You have to apply it properly

3) You have to apply it at the appropriate time.

TO BE CONTINUED...

TheRumpledOne 08-30-2008 02:10 PM

A TRADER LOOKING AT H1 SEES THIS:


http://i38.tinypic.com/22dleb.gif


A TRADER LOOKING AT M5 SEES THIS:


http://i35.tinypic.com/30vdnyh.gif


PRICE is ALWAYS the same no matter what chart or chart type you use.

PRICE goes UP or DOWN.

PRICE BEING UP or DOWN is RELATIVE to a previous price.

This may sound simple because IT IS SIMPLE!

But these simple TRUTHS get lost in a sea of indicators and chart types.


TRO TREND METER


http://i38.tinypic.com/bi1mc7.gif


Simple trend lines drawn from the highest high (HH) to lowest low (LL) of the day and from the current price to the HH or LL, whichever is most recent. Shows the "current" trend at all times.

I AM NOT SHOWING YOU THESE TOOLS ( INDICATORS ) TO ENTICE YOU TO SEND ME A DONATION. YOU DO NOT NEED THEM!! I hope this is clear to the reader.

These indicators can train your eye to SEE what is really happening. You can draw your own lines by hand and get the same result. It's just that my degree was in computer science and I like to make the computer do the work for me. Also, coding indicators helps me to understand systems because I can't code what I don't understand.

TO BE CONTINUED...

johnnykanoo 08-30-2008 02:34 PM

Avery excellent thread Im running around crazy today but I will try your template and see what I can post for trend this week. BTW

I love the big charts!!!

I find your posts to be incredibly informative and it is obvious to me that you are a winning trader who makes his living trading and anything you can offer is great. I hope you will continue to post your charts coupled with your wisdom and showing us how its done.
thanks, johnny


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