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dragon33 09-10-2008 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ewokuk (Post 67326)
i think the idea is if the h1 candle crosses any given price in a certain direction, then the chances are it will continue in that direction for at least 5 pips or so for the minimum of a quick scalp.

i dont know what the probabilities of that are exactly, but given the size of 1h bars it seems pretty high, you would infact be unlucky not to get at least 5 pips. so providing you have better luck than i do, you should be ok lol.

managed to grab 9 pips on eurusd just now so back in profit again (just)

ive now activated 1 click trading so i can get in and out fast, there will be no stopping me now!!!! (except when i manage to click the wrong currency like i did just now - stupid small buttons)

Remember watch out if your spread is to big. Use the posted dynamic SR indicator and don't scalp if there is not enough space between the high and low. Gof for the big ones if H1 and D1 are the same.
It works for me. Again thanx TRO

TheRumpledOne 09-10-2008 12:52 PM

YOU WANT STATISTICS....

http://i38.tinypic.com/igydzr.gif

ewokuk 09-10-2008 12:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 67331)
Statistically, the average range of the H1 candle is 91.64 pips over the last 120 H1 bars.

So, I know when a H1 candle is reaching its limits.

93 of the last 120 bars were larger than current 52 pips.

49 of the last 120 bars were larger than average 91.64 pips.

So, there's your REAL TIME STATISTICS. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.

is that range part of one of the posted indicators? average size of the last xx h1 bars vs size of current h1 bar would be useful so i can judge whether its too late to enter on the current h1 or not :p

could probably code it myself but ive spent half the day coding my alert already

stephangiunta 09-10-2008 01:10 PM

Hi all,

i m complete newbie, and i have been reading this thread for the last few days.

i was struck by the apparent simplicity of the idea at the beginning of the thread.
the original idea. ( resistance and support over last 21 candles, then go long and go short lines based on middle point of that s/r range.)

then i kept reading and many more questions and answers kept coming. every single additional question, answer, indicator after the original idea made things more complicated. finally i reached page 16 i think where i just cant take anymore as i am completely confused.

so my understanding so far is that :

market moves in waves. when im at the top of the visual wave, i go short nd when at bottom of wave i go long. ( basically the tro sr/rr)

as i cannot ride wave both ways ( just for practical reasons) i will have to choose one direction, which i will do by quickly checking the longer timeframe to get an idea of trend.

another understanding( big name huh) is that action brings reaction, big unexpected move down, should be followed by a reaction ( all those poor guys who dont wnt it to happen) big move up. ( i will try to see more light into that, how can any action bring about a reaction)

so for the next few days i will experience with those ideas, keep the original TRO idea, and just forget about all the rest. i have to do that for my own sanity. i will stop reading as it only brings more confusion and try to see some light with just a few concepts.

wish me luck...

:):)

metalorn 09-10-2008 01:15 PM

Went long at 1.4029 and 1.4041, five pips on each. Man, I just made 4% today in less than three hours!

http://i37.tinypic.com/hv2jhj.gif

TheRumpledOne 09-10-2008 01:22 PM

YOU WANT SOME MORE STATISTICS??

http://i33.tinypic.com/i1g16s.gif

TheRumpledOne 09-10-2008 01:24 PM

GOT STATISTICS?

http://i37.tinypic.com/vxgdwl.gif

TheRumpledOne 09-10-2008 01:26 PM

WHO'S YOUR STAT DADDY?

http://i37.tinypic.com/9zoump.gif

dragon33 09-10-2008 01:42 PM

This is fun LOL

edacsac 09-10-2008 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by metalorn (Post 67311)
you don't want to increase your lot size?

I'm currently using 3% of my total account size per trade, which is 1% more than is recommended. So I don't know....

TheRumpledOne 09-10-2008 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ewokuk (Post 67335)
is that range part of one of the posted indicators? average size of the last xx h1 bars vs size of current h1 bar would be useful so i can judge whether its too late to enter on the current h1 or not :p

could probably code it myself but ive spent half the day coding my alert already

NO. It's not one that I post.

edacsac 09-10-2008 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 67314)
Do you think I am keeping SECRETS?

I posted the charts that I am using.

The charts tell the story.

I enter at the HORIZONTAL LINE. It's that simple.

I use the H1 and D1 candle color.

H1 color determines direction of trade.

Don't you see the charts of OTHER TRADERS making money doing this?

I certainly do not think your keeping secrets. I see the charts you've posted.

We started early back with the TRO Dynamic Support/Rsistance and Buy indicator, which creates buy and sell signals at certain distance from support/resistance, to be used once support or resistance has been touched. All good stuff and lessons we can use with or without the indicator. Combine that with rules of candle color on multiple time frames and now we're filtering for better possible trades. Add some candle characteristics with higher/lower highs and lows, then you can start visualizing when the price direction is running out of steam and likely to reverse. Pivot points could help determine exit points (I'm still not sure when I'd use pivot points in my trading. Need to re-read that section). Now we have some criteria we can use to trade based on the fundamentals that many of us have overlooked.

Now remove several of those ideas and start trading randomly based on candle direction on a minimum of two charts doesn't seem like such a good thing anymore. I've tried it several times today. I open my platform, check candle color on M5, H1 and D1 and opened a position. Results aren't good.

You say you enter on the horizontal line, but when you place horizontal lines based on nothing, what good is the horizontal line??

Please understand that I am just trying to understand.

pintodave 09-10-2008 02:36 PM

Tro,

all though I have a lot to learn and yet to fully utilize your indicators (b/c ofdifferent charting), I have still learned a great deal from your posts and "brain stimulators".

I had my first net positive day! 34 pips! And I am stopping! Not huge by any standard, but a start!

btw, I have contributed to your cause even though you may not know it directly ;)

TheRumpledOne 09-10-2008 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edacsac (Post 67352)
I certainly do not think your keeping secrets. I see the charts you've posted.

We started early back with the TRO Dynamic Support/Rsistance and Buy indicator, which creates buy and sell signals at certain distance from support/resistance, to be used once support or resistance has been touched. All good stuff and lessons we can use with or without the indicator. Combine that with rules of candle color on multiple time frames and now we're filtering for better possible trades. Add some candle characteristics with higher highs or higher lows, then you can start visualizing when the price direction is running out of steam and likely to reverse. Pivot points could help determine exit points. Now we have some criteria we can use to trade based on the fundamentals that many of us have overlooked.

Now remove several of those ideas and start trading randomly based on candle direction on a minimum of two charts doesn't seem like such a good thing anymore. I've tried it several times today. I open my platform, check candle color on M5, H1 and D1 and opened a position. Results aren't good.

You say you enter on the horizontal line, but when you place horizontal lines based on nothing, what good is the horizontal line??

Please understand that I am just trying to understand.

The point of the RANDOMLY PLACE HORIZONTAL LINES was to DEMONSTRATE how powerful the H1 candle color is and why you should usually NEVER trade against it.

You mixed the M5 in with the H1 and D1. I don't recall posting that.

See, LOSSES happen when you do NOT READ CAREFULLY and FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS.

When baking, do you follow the recipe or do you "wing it" by adding in something the recipe didn't call for?

TheRumpledOne 09-10-2008 02:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pintodave (Post 67356)
Tro,

all though I have a lot to learn and yet to fully utilize your indicators (b/c ofdifferent charting), I have still learned a great deal from your posts and "brain stimulators".

I had my first net positive day! 34 pips! And I am stopping! Not huge by any standard, but a start!

btw, I have contributed to your cause even though you may not know it directly ;)

Perhaps you should STOP.

No reason to push it.

Relax.

Enjoy your victory.

The market will be waiting for you.

Thank you for your support.

F X 09-10-2008 02:51 PM

EU trade as discussed today
 
1 Attachment(s)
TRO this is the trade we were speaking about in the room today.
How should the indicator been interpreted?

edacsac 09-10-2008 02:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 67358)
The point of the RANDOMLY PLACE HORIZONTAL LINES was to DEMONSTRATE how powerful the H1 candle color is and why you should usually NEVER trade against it.

You mixed the M5 in with the H1 and D1. I don't recall posting that.

See, LOSSES happen when you do NOT READ CAREFULLY and FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS.

When baking, do you follow the recipe or do you "wing it" by adding in something the recipe didn't call for?

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 67110)
[size="7"]Just remember the rule of thumb:


NEVER TRADE AGAINST THE H1 CANDLE ESPECIALLY WHEN IT'S THE SAME COLOR AS THE D1 CANDLE.

I'm trading on the M5. Thats the first chart I look at. Sorry for the misleading sentence. I do read. Over and over again.

TheRumpledOne 09-10-2008 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by F X (Post 67361)
TRO this is the trade we were speaking about in the room today.
How should the indicator been interpreted?

I don't think you installed the latest version of the indicator.

Bias was DOWN so you should have PASSED on the long trade.

But it looks like you could have made a quick 5 pips or so.

Please use TinyPic - Free Image Hosting, Photo Sharing & Video Hosting so you can post the chart inline with the text so we don't have to flip back and forth between chart and text.

TheRumpledOne 09-10-2008 04:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by edacsac (Post 67364)
I'm trading on the M5. Thats the first chart I look at. Sorry for the misleading sentence. I do read. Over and over again.


OK. Carry on!!

:D

metalorn 09-10-2008 05:39 PM

Shorting under support levels can yield mixed results. I suppose is the same when buying above resistance. Also, the slow hours of EURUSD don't help much.

edit: this was just to prove myself (and if other newbies care to read it) that the good trades are between support and resistance, not outside.

http://i38.tinypic.com/ruwcgp.gif

ewokuk 09-10-2008 06:00 PM

thats the problem i had with it on M5 (that and the distance between sup/res and go long/short is so small it can trigger on the slightest few pips retrace and then continue the original direction), if the price drops fairly constant all day rather than being choppy and ranging up and down a bit, it might never go back above the goshort line to trigger another short trade, so you either short from below support which is high risk, or you dont get many trades, especially only going with the H1 candle which is the safe way.

thats why i decided to go for 1h chart and trade the candle colour when it crosses certain lines. which tro proved seems to work very well. so i must just have the worst luck in the world because most of them turn the second i place a trade, even if its with the d1 candle colour.

F X 09-10-2008 06:04 PM

Proper entries
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 67370)
I don't think you installed the latest version of the indicator.

Bias was DOWN so you should have PASSED on the long trade.

But it looks like you could have made a quick 5 pips or so.

Please use TinyPic - Free Image Hosting, Photo Sharing & Video Hosting so you can post the chart inline with the text so we don't have to flip back and forth between chart and text.

Very Good TRO,
I did move the stop when price moved up, so a 1pip gain.
Trades are executed in the direction of the 1H Bias..got that.
For entries, it the original entry is missed and price does not retrace to that entry point, but continues in the direction of the 1H Bias, do you advocate enter the trade along the way; if so, what are the guidelines, if not way?

Regards, FX

ewokuk 09-10-2008 06:11 PM

i have a question about the 1h bias. is the bias based on the current hour (which may only be 1 minute old for example so isnt worth much weight) or based on the previous hour?

metalorn 09-10-2008 06:48 PM

The current hour candle.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ewokuk (Post 67390)
i have a question about the 1h bias. is the bias based on the current hour (which may only be 1 minute old for example so isnt worth much weight) or based on the previous hour?


Shane 09-10-2008 08:46 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Answering the question about losing trades....

I made up this spreadsheet to backtest TRO's "random line" method. I have only done the first 6 hours or so, but i'll put it up to show anyway:

Starting from day open of 9/9/08 using GBPJPY (corresponding to TRO's posted charts).

Rules used were:
*only 1 trade per level per hour (multiple trades in 1 hour allowed if new level has not yet been broken inside the hour).
*Entrys noted were all in the same direction of hour candle when that candle touched any of the random lines previously mentioned.
*Exits were only when 5 pip profit obtained.....TRO has not yet mentioned anything about any a stop loss or a closing of the trade pre-profit target (with regard to this excercise).

Data includes;
Time of entry (taken from minute chart)
Colour of hour and day candle
Entry price
Duration of trade (in minutes unless otherwise noted. 0 = trade open for less that 1 min)
Max down = maximum pips moved in losing direction before profit target reached
Profit (set at 5 pips)

So the answer is...
I see no losing trades, but even in the small amount of data shown...I see a few large drawdowns. Admittedly the largest one is against the daily candle colour, but there are also 2 trades with the colour that went over 40 pips down before returning to profit.

How much would YOU let the trade go sour before you gave up?

Surely 40+ pips risk : 5 pips reward is an unacceptable ratio in anyones book.
Is it not?

metalorn 09-10-2008 08:52 PM

I think TRO mentioned, the stop loss is 5 pips. If you apply it to your spreadsheet, you will have losers, but a +40 profit at the end.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shane (Post 67408)
Answering the question about losing trades....

I made up this spreadsheet to backtest TRO's "random line" method. I have only done the first 6 hours or so, but i'll put it up to show anyway:

Starting from day open of 9/9/08 using GBPJPY (corresponding to TRO's posted charts).

Rules used were:
*only 1 trade per level per hour (multiple trades in 1 hour allowed if new level has not yet been broken inside the hour).
*Entrys noted were all in the same direction of hour candle when that candle touched any of the random lines previously mentioned.
*Exits were only when 5 pip profit obtained.....TRO has not yet mentioned anything about any a stop loss or a closing of the trade pre-profit target (with regard to this excercise).

Data includes;
Time of entry (taken from minute chart)
Colour of hour and day candle
Entry price
Duration of trade (in minutes unless otherwise noted)
Max down = maximum pips moved in losing direction before profit target reached
Profit (set at 5 pips)

So the answer is...
I see no losing trades, but even in the small amount of data shown...I see a few large drawdowns. Admittedly the largest one is against the daily candle colour, but there are also 2 trades with the colour that went over 40 pips down before returning to profit.

How much would YOU let the trade go sour before you gave up?

Surely 40+ pips risk : 5 pips reward is an unacceptable ratio in anyones book.
Is it not?


ewokuk 09-10-2008 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by metalorn (Post 67409)
I think TRO mentioned, the stop loss is 5 pips. If you apply it to your spreadsheet, you will have losers, but a +40 profit at the end.

he didnt, take profit is 5 pips.

i wouldnt like 40 pips when going for 5 pip profit either. if i was going for only 5 pip profit i would probably have a 10 pip stoploss, and even that isnt a good ratio.

Shane 09-10-2008 09:11 PM

Just re-read the relevant posts...TRO did say that he considered the trade a loser if it failed to gross 5 pips, but there is no mention of stops.

But...Metalorn was correct about the 40 pips profit if a 5 pip stop had been used.

Shane 09-10-2008 09:58 PM

1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by ewokuk (Post 67335)
is that range part of one of the posted indicators? average size of the last xx h1 bars vs size of current h1 bar would be useful so i can judge whether its too late to enter on the current h1 or not :p

could probably code it myself but ive spent half the day coding my alert already

Here's a range indicator i made a couple of weeks ago. It isn't as functional as TRO's, but it does show the basic info you wanted.

(Hope I'm not stepping out of line in posting this here.) :eek:

TheRumpledOne 09-11-2008 01:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shane (Post 67416)
Here's a range indicator i made a couple of weeks ago. It isn't as functional as TRO's, but it does show the basic info you wanted.

(Hope I'm not stepping out of line in posting this here.) :eek:

Thanks for sharing.

Feel free to post your indicators.

dragon33 09-11-2008 04:08 AM

http://i37.tinypic.com/2buqsx.jpg

I am out for today maybe i kick in this afternoon.
3h of trading for a netprofit of 332euro

Shane 09-11-2008 04:40 AM

Fun and games with MQL4
 
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:

Originally Posted by TheRumpledOne (Post 67435)
Thanks for sharing.

Feel free to post your indicators.

Made this today as an effort to construct a Support/Resistance detector. It seems to move a bit too quickly to be of any use (esp with GBPJPY) but i'll post it here anyway. Perhaps someone may be able to modify it to be more user friendly. ;)

http://i34.tinypic.com/2w1yy47.gif

It displays a total count of fractals over multiple time periods for the current price +/- 5 pips.


(BTW, I am rather inexperienced at programming, so the code is probably not as efficient as it could be).
Feel free to use, modify, delete....etc

ewokuk 09-11-2008 05:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shane (Post 67416)
Here's a range indicator i made a couple of weeks ago. It isn't as functional as TRO's, but it does show the basic info you wanted.

(Hope I'm not stepping out of line in posting this here.) :eek:

thanks. doubt itll stop my constant losing though, im just cursed, id have more luck by flipping a coin.

quest 09-11-2008 05:32 AM

Mind Sharing DRAGON33
 
Hi Dragon33,

sincerely this method works but I believe with much practice and monitoring of price action, most especially the bias (lower high, lower low etc) but how do we know when there is a reversal coming. Even a red Hour and Daily candle doesn't mean trades can't reverse as fast as the colour changes.

I seem to be out of place and seeing u post positive trades makes me feel I am not getting something right, though I made some profit and some loss, my loss happen when I am scared and getting out of trade too fast just as I get out of positive trades as fast as lightning.

just in few words kindly tell us your own strategy, what is your stop loss and what do u look at b4 u jet in and out of trade.

Never mind repeating what the wise one has said (therumpledone) but in your own language/style .... aight!

Thank You ... QUEST

dragon33 09-11-2008 05:43 AM

http://i38.tinypic.com/10mtu2o.gif

I've catcht another one
This one is uge 145 pip gain

dragon33 09-11-2008 05:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by quest (Post 67468)
Hi Dragon33,

sincerely this method works but I believe with much practice and monitoring of price action, most especially the bias (lower high, lower low etc) but how do we know when there is a reversal coming. Even a red Hour and Daily candle doesn't mean trades can't reverse as fast as the colour changes.

I seem to be out of place and seeing u post positive trades makes me feel I am not getting something right, though I made some profit and some loss, my loss happen when I am scared and getting out of trade too fast just as I get out of positive trades as fast as lightning.

just in few words kindly tell us your own strategy, what is your stop loss and what do u look at b4 u jet in and out of trade.

Never mind repeating what the wise one has said (therumpledone) but in your own language/style .... aight!

Thank You ... QUEST

The only thing i use is the free indicator from TRO (dynamic SR)
I also use the 50 ema high and low to get the direction. If the ema's are flat (horizontal) i don't trade. It could be a reversal.
I get in when the indicator trigger the go short signal and when ema's are down, H1 and D1 are red get ready it could be a big trade.
If the dynamic indicator trigger a buy signal i only get in when H1 is green, if not i'l wait until its green. Otherwise i go for a small gain (5pip)
If H1 never turn green i take a new short if it breaks last resistance only when the H1 candle is not to big allready. Calculate the average of the last (choose your number) red candles.

dragon33 09-11-2008 05:59 AM

http://i37.tinypic.com/vhtjea.gif

This a possible buy or short
If green candle cross the red line H1 turns green
If it can't pass it is a short for a few pips at least probably more.

dragon33 09-11-2008 06:07 AM

http://i37.tinypic.com/2d94sjt.gif

I am in for a buy at 1.4886

metalorn 09-11-2008 06:26 AM

I've been stopped twice on EURUSD. I bought at 1.3928 and 1.3933...

http://i37.tinypic.com/1zzgg8l.gif

dragon33 09-11-2008 06:32 AM

You mean you lost?

Sorry but why didn't you take your profit?
You could have 40 pips

Don't be greedy. I was to but after i met TRO and that is just a few weeks i am winning the war. A few pips here and there will make the difference.


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