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Say you have done your statistics. And say you "know" price has 80% (or whatever) of chance to go up for say 50 pips at least. So you enter LONG. What is your rr at this time ? When will you consider the current "retrace" is part of the last 20% ? Or are you still adding more info to stat and have a break point ? |
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PROBABILITY deals with the future. Do NOT confuse the two. |
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If you are long certain pairs you receive triple interest. If you are short those pairs you pay triple interest. To avoid paying interest, the shorts cover (exit) their position. The usually causes price to go up right before rollover at 5PM EST. |
ive
just had a look at GBPJPY (5% vs 0.25% interest so about the best
example of this there is likely to be). over the last few weeks it
doesnt seem to have done this at all. often nothing happens and
sometimes it has dropped instead, there is no pattern of price moving
up around 5pm EST that I can see.
3rd sept price dropped instead 27th aug very little movement, price dropped slightly 20th aug went up slightly between 45 and 15 mins before 5pm but then dropped between 4:45 and 5pm 13th aug price moved up a very small amount then dropped again 15 mins before 5pm 6th aug overall price dropped over the 45 mins before close 29th july price was moving up anyway then dropped opver the 15 mins before close maybe im just not SEEING it, but there is no pattern there of price moving up just before close on a wednesday despite there being a big interest difference between those. checked audusd as well and its no better. you may say it USUALLY does, but ive checked back to july. |
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Try a year's worth of data. |
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Even more confused!
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As far as I can see there is no color for the 60 minute or daily candle while it is still forming. And when you make a trade (on any time frame) your trade is part of the soon-to-be set of colors for the 60 minute and the daily candle. These candles are being formed when you trade, and the color can change to be red or green once the candle CLOSES. It is just after the close that the color is certain. Until the close, you can only look at the candles that have already closed to see the colors. Thus your statement (from the quote above) does not seem to resolve my confusion. Could you please explain where I have gone wrong in my thinking about candle colors? Thank you, Barry |
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If the close < open of the H1 candle, then it is RED. |
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It's just that with dice and coin tossing, there are probabilities and they NEVER CHANGE. With trading, the statistics change as the sample size increases and/or start/end times change. |
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If I may,
one good example is at the start of the day. If the one minute bar is green, then the hourly and daily are green too. Quote:
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candle confusion
Tro,
Reading Thru The Last Few Posts,i Think There May Be Confusion On Which Candle You Are Referring To As To Not Trade Against The Color.do You Mean The Recently Closed Candle Or The One In Progress? If It Is The One In Progress,wouldn't You Need To Be In A Buy And Sell Position Until The Price Makes A More Determined Move In One Direction? Just Trying To Clarify. Thanks In Advance.bill |
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That's just my point. The current H1 candle has not closed when I make my trade. My trade can take place anywhere during the H1 candle. The H1 candle has not yet closed. You can only see a tendency of the move and also the current price relative to the open (hence MT4 shows a forming candle changing colors, as it compares the latest price with the open). To me it seems that this rule (that began this discussion about the H1 candle) was generated by looking back over past data. But when you are trading you do not have the luxury of seeing how this H1 candle will close. You can only see the close if you are looking back over past data. (Do you think that there is a trader that wouldn't give everything to have such knowledge? :D ) All you see in the color of the current candle is the relationship between the open and the current price. So that rule doesn't have any validity when you are trading. Look at the candle that got you into the series of trades you made that we discussed earlier (that led to the color rule we are discussing). As prices moved from the open all the way up to hit your buy stop that candle was green...these prices were above the open. But when that candle closed it was red. And such can happen with candles forming on any time frame. As I said before, if at any time I knew the final color of the current candle (tradeable, before it closed) then I would never lose. Barry |
And the next, and the next and the next
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As soon as you make a trade, the next tick bar may have changed, and so the color of the minute, hour and day have changed. I think that the flaw in that filter (trade based on the H1 current bar color) is that it works, and can be generated only when looking at past data. You don't have the information from the bar to enact that filter while the bar is forming. And yes, "you may." The only way that I can learn (to see if I can profit from the markets) is to have my ideas and understanding of trading bounced off others who have different viewpoints and/or are smarter and/or more effective that I am. Thank you, Barry |
The
Close IS the current price. There are only 4 choices to look at per
candle...open, high, low, close. So if we're looking at the present
candle, the current price is considered the close price. What is price
currently doing? If the current (close) price (so far) is higher than
the open, then it's green, lower then its red. "Close" doesn't mean the
candle is finished.
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How valid is it as a trading filter
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Given the past few posts of mine, then how valid would you say TRO's bar color filter is? Every time we see a down (red) candle with a long (upper) wick we are seeing a buy signal that has has gone sour if we were trading on that time frame and probably other time frames below it (TRO talks about trading 5 minute bars with H1 filter). All the time that the current price was above the open, the candle was reinforcing our buy. I guess the rule could be: if I get a buy signal, and the current price for this H1 bar is above the open, then the filter says do the buy. On the other hand, if the current price in this H1 bar is below the open, then I shouldn't do the buy. Maybe it would be valuable.:rolleyes: What do you think? Barry |
Hey TRO, here's an idea maybe to add to your candle color meter indicator?
What if under each t/f candle on your candle meter, you put the color of the smaller t/f candles that made up that t/f? For example, under the M5, put the last 5 M1 bar colors, under the M15, put the last 3 M5 bar colors, under the M30 put the last 2 M15 bars, under the H1 put the last 4 M15 bar colors etc. Just a thought :) |
"FatBars"
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FRACTALS
http://i35.tinypic.com/9gf40w.gif I added fib retrace lines to the fractals indicator. Once again, it doesn't matter what indicator.... PRICE IS PRICE |
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A+ But as time marches on, things change. |
There is already such indicator, the multimeter candle color (look at post #401: http://forums.babypips.com/66490-post401.html)
Now, what I was refering to before was probability. If you are trading out of a 5m candle and you think you can go long, then you check the 1H time frame and if the current bar is green, then you have more chance to profit, and if you go to the 1D time frame and the current bar is green, the probability is even higher. Quote:
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You must look at the current candle to make your trading decisions. If previous candle is red and current candle is green, you should be long. How long you wait to enter, that's your entry trigger!! |
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This rule is based on OBSERVATION and STATISTICS. What is an H1 candle? 60 M1 candles. 12 M5 candles. 4 M15 candles. 2 M30 candles. Just look and see how much "whipsaw" there really is AFTER 1 min, or 5 min, or 15 min or 30 min... See if price stays above/below the open or crosses back and forth. Also see how many times the candle range is above/below average and NOTE THE TIME OF DAY!! Now, you have some homework to do... |
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What you are seeing is a LONG trade that you should have exited with a profit. |
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That would complicate matters. That's what charts are for!! M5 chart with H1 shading. |
greedy buyzone
Hello TRO,
Excuse my ignorance, the buyzone on eurusd is greedy right now. Is that a signal? |
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IMO, That doesn't help at all to do something ........ |
what it means is I just got a nice setup and it's up to me to go for it.
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Ok you have a nice setup but it is just true all the time ....... It is as if i tell you you have one hour more each time i have one hour more...... If you look that way e.g smaller timeframe start to greater timeframe start at the same time, then it is always true. => not an information that can be used to trade or ... hmmmmmm :rolleyes: let me check that again .... TRO, any input ? |
wait... I got it. Greedy is outside of the buy zone so I better stay out!
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Edit your post and post a chart so others can see what you're talking about. |
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Did you read the 3 FREE Buy Zone eBooks? |
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Then after 1 min, the M1 candle could be different from the rest. Then after 5 min, the M5 candle could be different from the rest. And so on.... That's the reason I am telling you to NOT BE FOOLED!! TO BE CONTINUED... |
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Thank
you TRO, here's the "greedy" example. My kid is jumping and playing
around me so I've taken only one entry in the last hour, but that was 4
pips without any hustle. I've missed quite a few opportunities!
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I only saw one. I'll look for the others.
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Can you confirm that the candle not finished but currently designed on a 1H timeframe (say at T) will be the same color when it the hour will last of the one of the 5mn chart that just ended at T+5mn ? Is that "true" or is that what you wanted to show or am i mistaken somewhere ? [...] well i just tried it .....on EURUSD and made 23 pips yet after only the first 6/12 of the "5mn candles" of the 1h currently designed. I don't know if it's gonna be more after, and i don't know how to really exit, but asap a candle went over the Opening price (as i knew it was green at the end), i raised my SL to opening price. I knew i could loose. So i took my pips yet.... Is that it TRO or am i just lucky this time ? [...] Ok i tried again just the 1h candle after but was too quick to enter trade then i lost 13 pips (enter, exit, loss, re-enter, re-exit, loss, enter, exit , win). Now i wait the other one which is going to be there in 10 mn.... So, what's the story ? |
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I can't give any guarantees. I don't know the future... If anyone did, there would be no market. |
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I can't give any guarantees. I don't know the future... If anyone did, there would be no market. Are we trying to "benefit" from something or better is phylosophy ? |
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