Patterns Observation.

[Branzo]

Did some aggressive scalping using the semafors today, 1M timeframe, #3 semafors, 4 wins and 1 loss, stop loss was 2 pips per trade, im going to note this strategy in my WIL, I don’t always have the time to sit behind the laptop and trade so back to the drawing board we go, missed out on a few big moves due to this today (sad day)

[kiwiarian]

Yes. I talked about trade grading here. Also, there is a reason why big guns wait for those M/ W/ H&S/ QM patterns. I also already talked about this here.



Yes. Have your H1 and D1 open and look for entry in 1 min or 5.

So Don, if you don't mind me asking, what was your big light bulb moment in your early days that put you on to keeping your accounts in the positive?

That's a tough question.

The proper answer would be it's a journey. Cliche, I know. But there's really no other words to describe it. I wouldn't be able to see things the way I do now without this journey. Much like 1st grade elementary student won't be able to solve 7th grade math problems because he hasn't even journeyed the 2nd, 3rd, ~ 7th grade yet; this mirrors exactly my experience and I believe the seniors' here too. One experience builds the next one.

Problem is, everyone's journey is different. Traders will start in different places because they have their strengths and weaknesses. That's why I said traders must assemble their vehicle properly. If you want to build a family car then gather the appropriate car parts. If sports car, then their parts. I am a very aggressive trader so I have an aggressive trading style, aggressive money management, aggressive tf, aggressive TP, aggressive SL, aggressive entry trigger, aggressive tools and my WIL is thick with stuff that caters to my aggressiveness. Why WIL? Coz things happen so you must be prepared. Some days you get crazy big profit, some others, lose money.

So then, is my stuff useful for everyone? Absolutely!

Someone who is very conservative can use my anchor trade. Just use a bigger tf and bigger backbone combo and/ or use a much smaller risk. Problem solved. You will have new and different problems though for example something like missed opportunities due to sleep (in the case of using H1 or H4 as your entry trigger instead of 1 minute) and as for WIL... there's really not much I can help with because this is the journey, your journey. I already put a guideline and general ideas of what WIL is and what must be inside of it. Everything's out in the open in this thread.


Hope this touched your question.

That makes sense, thanks. Amongst other stuff planning and taking the time keep a very detailed 5000 page encyclopedia of your What If List has helped you a lot as well. Sounds like you have been taking it very serious similar to learning a degree and taking detailed notes along the way and doing the extra reading they give you.
I have a lot of notes in different areas , some are books and others electronic so a bit hard to find sometimes. You have inspired me to go get a decent book and have it all in one place and go more detailed etc.
CHeers

[IgazI]

As Don said, you have to start at the beginning. . .

ask questions, gather your thoughts, put them into practice.


Obsidian Flight School

obsid.jpg (80.89 KiB) Viewed 1500 times

https://obsidian.md/

[kiwiarian]

As Don said, you have to start at the beginning. . .

ask questions, gather your thoughts, put them into practice.


Obsidian Flight School
obsid.jpg
https://obsidian.md/

This looks way cool, perfect for a scatter brain like me, cheers.

[Don_xyZ]

I've been posting a variety of stuff between both threads. Well, that's just the way I am. Can't stay still and need to do brain workouts. The Anchor trade is still very much alive and driving home a lot of profit for me. But in case you need something to enforce the idea with simple triggers, just use the M trigger like so...

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The M trade 2.png (47.22 KiB) Viewed 1360 times

The M trade M1.png (31.17 KiB) Viewed 1360 times

The M trade M1 2.png (32.18 KiB) Viewed 1360 times

The M trade M1 3.png (29.58 KiB) Viewed 1360 times

You can start with bigger tf like H1 if you don't have time but the big pot is of course in the M1. It takes time for H1 to push your profit even more and if the context is already there then the push will drive a lot of crazy profit your way. It doesn't take that much time to get at least 5R a session if you're conservative and sometimes in my case, 5R to 20R usually happens during the first hour of the kill zone.

Why M pattern? Because every market turn can be isolated with 1 of 3 patterns. It's gonna be A/V in the case of a very sharp market movement or M/W with a lot of money behind it or H&S/IH&S/QM with even more money behind it. So if you can catch the turn using one of those 3 patterns, you'll be making money beyond your expectation.

I posted how to grade M/W (the simple way) before, just check the link in the 1st post about patterns. It's all there.

[Don_xyZ]

One method and then another and more.
Eventually, you can see which one comes first and take 'em.
Like I always said... trading is like going into MMA. If you are trained only in boxing, you'll be limited to punches, the ones coming your way and waiting for your chances to deliver them to the opponent. If you're versed in Jiu Jitsu, Muaythai and some others then you have more things.

This time, it's Catching the Tail on M5 that comes first. So I took it. Lost and then win. 18R net after loss for today. 1 pip SL. Yeah, price still go for quite a lot more. But this is normal. I think I have one or two posts in the past that showed the exact same thing where I got my target and price still continue

Now chart...

1st hour.png (32.13 KiB) Viewed 1283 times

Like i told you before " ... usually during the 1st hour" of the kill zone.

Done for the day.

[Don_xyZ]

If you like IB, you can also get in and out with at least 5R net during the 1st hour.

IB Jan 30, 2023.png (33.22 KiB) Viewed 1281 times

[Don_xyZ]

MANAGEMENT

This topic was barely touched in this thread so I'm gonna talk about it briefly this time.

There are routes you can take when it comes to management but first, let's give proper definition so as to not confuse things and since you are in my thread you must be familiar that I like give names to things

Money/cash management
By this, I mean the overall money you have in you posession. In life, it's imperative that you do money management as it can be a source of glory or disaster. Although trading is a good source of income, do remember that it is a very risky venture. It's in the category of active income and essentially you're included in what Robert Kiyosaki termed Self-employed in his Cashflow Quadrant. To be on the safe side, if you're in your 50's and up then you must not risk too much money on trading especially if you're new to this. Talk to your local financial advisor on how much you can afford because he/she will help you decide based on your current financial situation. If you're a pro then I have nothing to say on this, obviously If you're fairly young like in your 20's or 30's, your financial advisor might generally give a more lenient range because there is still hope to rebound from any losses that might incur during the venture.

Capital management
Now this is strictly talking about money that you already separate specifically for trading. In general, there are 2 types of capital management depending on which type of trader you are. If you're the type that likes to go all-in then your management style will be different than those who do not go all-in. This is how you can manage your capital:

1. Put all the money in a separate bank account or trading account or walet in your broker (preferably in bank account though). This will be your "total" capital.
2. Divide your capital by 10 or 20 (10% or 5% of total capital) as your "attempt" capital and then divide it again to 10 making it 1% or 0.5% from total capital as your "account" capital. So you will have 10 "attempt" capital and each of them is worth 10 "account" capital.
3. Put this 1 "account" capital in your trading account.
4. Trade all-in or all-in but with layers etc.
5. If the "account" capital is destroyed, use the 2nd "account" capital and so on. With this, you have layers of protection before you really run out of "total" capital.

This is how they do it in real life. If you've seen youtube traders make 10x their trading account it's because they do it like this because what you're seeing is actually the "account" capital, not the "total" capital. So in reality, if they make 10x the account, they're just making 100% of the "attempt" capital. Surprise, surprise!!! How do I know? Because I learn from them and I tried this in the past.

If you're not the all-in type then you can do this:

1. Put all the money in a separate bank account or trading account or walet in your broker (preferably in a bank account though). This will be your "total" capital.
2. Divide your capital by 10 or 20 (10% or 5% of total capital) as your "attempt" capital. So you will have 10 "attempt" capital.
3. Put this 1 "attempt" capital in your trading account.
4. Trade using a small risk. The general idea is to not use more than 1% per trade when you're just starting out. The less, the better. One trader that I learn from (I do learn from a lot of traders) said 0.5% if you're a beginner to avoid the shock of losing money even after months of successfully making profits in a demo account because losing hard-earned cash can be tough to swallow.
5. If the "attempt" capital is destroyed, use the 2nd "attempt" capital and so on. The idea of capital management is to prevent catastrophic loss and capital preservation/growth at the same time.

Now let's talk about another subject...

Profit/Loss Management
"What the hell?" I hear you. This is not talking about TP or SL, no, not at all. We're talking about how you manage your account growth (in the case of making profits) and how you manage the account when losing money (in the case of SL repeatedly getting hit). We can talk extensively about this subject but I'm just gonna focus on just some ideas.

Fixed Fractional
This is a method invented by Ralph Vince. Go buy his book if you want to know the details. This can be used by any type of trader (aggressive or conservative).

Fixed Dollar
The idea is to use the same size regardless of making or losing money. This is the very method used by Nial Fuller, the famous trader and mentor.

Compounding
The idea is to increase the trade size everytime you win and reducing it when you lose. You can play with this concept using your own preferences.

Parlay
The idea is to use the profit you gained to make bombastic profit in the subsequent trade (in the case of consecutive winning trades). This method is mainly for aggressive traders but can be modified to suit the conservatives as well.

I have to go now. I'll continue with this subject later with examples and maybe some variations

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[IgazI]

You know what has my vote maximum pain for maximum gain

IMO, if the intraday margin is $1166 and your max size is 6 contracts then you are going to deposit $7000 of which you are going to risk $0 of it.
Now you decide how much you are going to risk, add it to the $7000, and send it to the broker.

At a minimum, have margin for 4 contracts + money to risk. . .

if you cannot afford more contracts then there is no way to utilize OPM to increase the speed of money, you've shot yourself in the foot!

[Yirbu]

One method and then another and more.
Eventually, you can see which one comes first and take 'em.
Like I always said... trading is like going into MMA. If you are trained only in boxing, you'll be limited to punches, the ones coming your way and waiting for your chances to deliver them to the opponent. If you're versed in Jiu Jitsu, Muaythai and some others then you have more things.

This time, it's Catching the Tail on M5 that comes first. So I took it. Lost and then win. 18R net after loss for today. 1 pip SL. Yeah, price still go for quite a lot more. But this is normal. I think I have one or two posts in the past that showed the exact same thing where I got my target and price still continue

Now chart...

1st hour.png

Like i told you before " ... usually during the 1st hour" of the kill zone.

Done for the day.

Nice to see. This was the point where i froze yesterday.
Evaluating it I can see multiple entries that I could have taken; this is another one that I can add to my list.
When this happened yesterday I was afraid price would return to fill that gap...it didn't.
Nice post