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ahmedalhoseny
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Postby ahmedalhoseny » Fri Feb 24, 2012 5:49 am

Update For: February 21, 2012
Posted On: Wed, 22 Feb 2012 01:54:28 GMT
GBPUSD
Last Price: 1.5917
Support: 1.5645, 1.5635, 1.5597, 1.5482
Resistance: 1.5733, 1.5775, 1.5815, 1.5881


[Completing a triangle]



After retracing approximately 50% of its decline from 2.1160 sterling has consolidated. It's possible to count a triangle complete. That would put sterling in the early stages of a thrust that should carry well below 1.3504.

With cable failing to sustain a break of the lower trendline we have to consider the possibility a larger wave (D) has unfolded and the triangle is still unwinding. This scenario delays the start of the thrust lower but does not alter the outlook for a thrust to new lows
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GBP Weekly.gif
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ahmedalhoseny
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Postby ahmedalhoseny » Fri Feb 24, 2012 5:49 am

Update For: Friday, February 24
Posted On: Thu, 23 Feb 2012 20:01:44 GMT
GBPUSD
Last Price: 1.5917
Support: 1.5645, 1.5635, 1.5597, 1.5482
Resistance: 1.5733, 1.5775, 1.5815, 1.5881
Attachments
GBP Daily 24 feb.gif
GBP Daily 24 feb.gif (24.48 KiB) Viewed 220 times

ahmedalhoseny
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Postby ahmedalhoseny » Fri Feb 24, 2012 5:50 am

[Turning higher]
Key Level:


Cable dipped below 1.5656 but the outlook for a bottom and reversal stands. The setback from January looks corrective, a possible flat, and has retraced only 38.2% of the prior rally. The structure and depth of the setback is consistent with a correction.

An impulsive rally at small degree would signal the restart of the larger advance.

"The next rally should exceed 1.5929 and if it were to equal the prior advance from 1.5233 could reach the 1.6300 area, which would favor the alternate, but still bearish, count."
Attachments
GBP Daily 24 feb follow.gif
GBP Daily 24 feb follow.gif (15.19 KiB) Viewed 221 times

ahmedalhoseny
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Postby ahmedalhoseny » Fri Feb 24, 2012 5:52 am

Update For: February 13, 2012
Posted On: Mon, 13 Feb 2012 18:29:51 GMT
USDCHF
Last Price: 0.9038
Support: 0.9033, 0.8988, 0.8794, 0.8629
Resistance: 0.9081, 0.9150, 0.9199, 0.9302



"The potential thrust from a triangle in wave V, accompanied by a bullish momentum divergence when compared to the wave III low established in early 2008, warns the dollar is nearing a low."

The dollar has rallied sharply from 0.7064 and in an impulsive manner. A corrective setback would complete a long-term reversal and set the stage for further dollar gains
Attachments
CHF Monthly.gif
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ahmedalhoseny
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Postby ahmedalhoseny » Fri Feb 24, 2012 5:53 am

Update For: February 21
Posted On: Wed, 22 Feb 2012 01:37:55 GMT
USDCHF
Last Price: 0.9038
Support: 0.9033, 0.8988, 0.8794, 0.8629
Resistance: 0.9081, 0.9150, 0.9199, 0.9302


[Correcting, then higher]



The five-wave rally from 0.7064 suggests the dollar has established an important low. It also set the stage for the largest correction since the low, which is underway from 0.9597. Support from the fourth wave of one lesser degree extends to 0.8568. A setback that ends after three waves would complete the bullish reversal and set the stage for another impulsive rally
Attachments
CHF Weekly.gif
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ahmedalhoseny
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Postby ahmedalhoseny » Fri Feb 24, 2012 5:54 am

Update For: Friday, February 24
Posted On: Thu, 23 Feb 2012 19:43:54 GMT
USDCHF
Last Price: 0.9038
Support: 0.9033, 0.8988, 0.8794, 0.8629
Resistance: 0.9081, 0.9150, 0.9199, 0.9302
Attachments
CHF Daily 24 feb.gif
CHF Daily 24 feb.gif (23.42 KiB) Viewed 216 times

ahmedalhoseny
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Postby ahmedalhoseny » Fri Feb 24, 2012 5:54 am

[Nearing a temporary low]
Key Level: 0.9302


USDCHF did thrust lower from a triangle, establishing a new low beneath 0.9083. Thrusts from triangles are terminal movements and this one should complete five waves from 0.9302.

The completion of an impulsive decline sequence will set the stage for a recovery. A correction might find resistance in the 0.9150 area, the fourth wave of one lesser degree. Assuming the rise unfolds in three waves we'll look to turn bearish again as a correction of the advance from August could extend toward 0.8814 with support from the fourth wave of one lesser degree extending to 0.8568
Attachments
CHF Daily 24 feb follow.gif
CHF Daily 24 feb follow.gif (13.25 KiB) Viewed 217 times

ahmedalhoseny
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Postby ahmedalhoseny » Fri Feb 24, 2012 6:14 am

Update For: February 13, 2012
Posted On: Mon, 13 Feb 2012 18:25:25 GMT
AUDUSD
Last Price: 1.0681
Support: 1.0661, 1.0598, 1.0541, 1.0527
Resistance: 1.0717, 1.0780, 1.0818, 1.0854





The five-wave decline, three-wave recovery sequence from the start of trading suggests AUDUSD is vulnerable to a downturn. We've been unable to confirm the turn at lower degree but with the decade-old recovery having retraced 61.8% of the prior decline upside potential appears limited.

Aussie strength through the final quarter of 2011 and January 2012 favors a push to a new high above 1.1083 before AUDUSD peaks
Attachments
AUD Monthly.gif
AUD Monthly.gif (17.03 KiB) Viewed 215 times

ahmedalhoseny
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Postby ahmedalhoseny » Fri Feb 24, 2012 6:14 am

Update For: February 21, 2012
Posted On: Wed, 22 Feb 2012 01:36:28 GMT
AUDUSD
Last Price: 1.0681
Support: 1.0661, 1.0598, 1.0541, 1.0527
Resistance: 1.0717, 1.0780, 1.0818, 1.0854


[Approaching a peak]



AUDUSD in in the midst of a thrust from a triangle that should carry above 1.1083. While bullish for now, thrusts from triangles are terminal and once 1.1083 is exceeded we'll start the search for a peak.

Once the rally from late 2009 is in five waves AUDUSD will become vulnerable. A correction might find support near 0.9388 though more than a corrective is possible
Attachments
AUD Weeky.gif
AUD Weeky.gif (18.6 KiB) Viewed 214 times

ahmedalhoseny
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Postby ahmedalhoseny » Fri Feb 24, 2012 6:15 am

Update For: Friday, February 24
Posted On: Thu, 23 Feb 2012 19:30:40 GMT
AUDUSD
Last Price: 1.0681
Support: 1.0661, 1.0598, 1.0541, 1.0527
Resistance: 1.0717, 1.0780, 1.0818, 1.0854
Attachments
AUD daily 24feb.gif
AUD daily 24feb.gif (22.61 KiB) Viewed 211 times

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