A fresh start! Doji's Trading Journal

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dojirock
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Postby dojirock » Fri Nov 23, 2012 2:58 am

Humble wrote:
newscalper wrote:Not really because I can show you hundreds of 5 minute z lines that don't hold as well as do in hindsight - what about the one right above and the run down...going down?? Why not down again at the upper z-line if the one below is good too? It's in the middle of a huge supply zone so why up and not down?


Yes you can show 100's that don't work, but as others have posted, if you plan the trade, many don't need to be for a loss and those that are, do not need to be for a full R:R.

Is this the short Z/L you are referring to?


Image


Good points Humble....

Trading a 5 min chart requires 5 min profits, targets. Scalping point of view.
It always takes Momentum to break Momentum!
"A small loss is just as satisfying as a large gain" -MO
"Sometimes we need to stop learning and start thinking...."
"Once you stack, you'll never go back!"

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dojirock
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Postby dojirock » Fri Nov 23, 2012 3:08 am

Some things to think about.....

Lines are areas...not the end to all
Price moves in this way (per my though process) Breakout, retrace.
But how far? Look at the chart! (hint, look at Pro's chart) Your getting an edge, not a 100 percent success rate.
Determine the if/then line as the reversal line then wait for confirmation to go.

Im having so many new insights at this moment...I gotta go...
:smt026 :smt041 HeadPhones_Smile Scared_Smile Shock_Smile Shock_Smile
It always takes Momentum to break Momentum!
"A small loss is just as satisfying as a large gain" -MO
"Sometimes we need to stop learning and start thinking...."
"Once you stack, you'll never go back!"

Humble
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Postby Humble » Fri Nov 23, 2012 3:12 am

Your up late doji!

Yes, thats what I thought newscalper was doing.

Looking forward to your further posts in line with your last comment to Jala. I can be a bit slow when it comes to picking up something new to me! I either get it first up or I don't, so the more it is explained from different perspectives the better.

I never would have got the Z/L concept from MO posts if it had not been for es/pip. Although MO's Z/L posts make perfect sense now of course.
Last edited by Humble on Fri Nov 23, 2012 11:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Is price closing higher or lower than something? Simple yet powerful question. ..MO

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dojirock
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Postby dojirock » Fri Nov 23, 2012 3:14 am

Yea, and now im really going!

lol
It always takes Momentum to break Momentum!
"A small loss is just as satisfying as a large gain" -MO
"Sometimes we need to stop learning and start thinking...."
"Once you stack, you'll never go back!"

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Postby Jalarupa » Fri Nov 23, 2012 4:48 am

dojirock wrote:
Jalarupa wrote:
newscalper wrote:
Humble wrote:In case it helps

Image

Not really because I can show you hundreds of 5 minute z lines that don't hold as well as do in hindsight - what about the one right above and the run down...going down?? Why not down again at the upper z-line if the one below is good too? It's in the middle of a huge supply zone so why up and not down?


Okay... why not have a simple rule that you will not break no matter what?

Like only trade in the direction of the D1 Candle Colour?

Add in a Bias for the W1 and you got yourself a nice combo...

Trade the H4 / H1 Momo pullbacks and you have this strategy mapped...

Body in direction of Profit / Wick in Direction of loss...

I think one of the reasons MO sizes his positions from the Weekly Extreme is that he knows that price has to cross the daily open to get back to him and that is a big enough task in and of itself...

Image


Thank you for the ideas Jala. Between Mo's and this post I got to thinking... When I got a clear idea, with some structure, I though back to the 100's of post I have read from you, Mo, Dragon, others that have been successful and they see to fit into an idea I just thought of. Not claiming it to be mine, just that it just came to me in a recognizable way in which the post all make sense or seem to have clarity now. Im so stoked... I need to check this out and do some backtesting on paper to confirm.

I will follow up with some post if im on to something or finally understanding what has been said at KR many times!

Thanks!


Hey Doji,

I'm looking forward to seeing what you are working on! It so awesome how we can all inspire and push each other to succeed. Its a very organic and dynamic process... This is community! This is the spirit of Ubuntu! We are all growing together and sharing, which is fantastic!

Thanks to all who put themselves out there and contribute to keeping this forum alive... I know its not often that I post but I hope to one day soon join in the ranks of Kreslikkers who do this kind of thing full time... I'm really getting pushed/pulled by a powerful invisible force away from my job as each and every day goes by.

My plan for liberation is simple...

I've done the excel calcs and have come to this conclusion... (if you wanna check my math/logic I'd appreciate a second opinion/correction)

$13 000 starting capital
withdraws of $1500 a month for the first year
account growth of 13.5% per month (before income draw downs)
Which equates to 0.7% per day for 19/20 days
If I risk 2% per trade over 100pips space I only need 33 pips to get this
The Average Daily Range 90/100 pips
If I trade in the direction of D1 bias I can/should be able to get at least 30pips a day...
The Average Weekly Range is 322 Pips
If I position myself at these extremes with proper space management I can do 15% in a week and spend more quality time with my wife and our baby girl (I mean I spend more time with my work colleagues than I do with the ones I love and who matter - This system is WRONG!)
If I accumulate space I can take my 2% risk to astronomical proportions
I only need to grow my account by 354.92% before annual deductions and by 50.5% after deductions to keep myself in the game.
And I can give myself a 25% annual salary increase (which itself increases by 25% annually). I mean its really quiet fascinating once you do the numbers...

And thanks to the miracle of compounding gains relative to ever increasing risk adjusted leverage I can be a millionaire in Dollar terms (If I follow this simple account management plan) by year 6 if all goes well... and I will be retired and doing the kind of things that really matters... Feeding starving people, Providing Sustainable living initiatives, Developing traders (for my pirate ship) & most importantly - Focusing on gaining inner peace through deep introspective meditation on the Supreme - Something that the rat race could never allow me to do...

So it is my hope that when I take the plunge you will all still be here to keep pushing me as you have been doing for the past years.

So yeah enough dreaming for now... If this Euro can't close above 1.29 I'm planning on shorting the living daylights out of it...
:smt065

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Postby bettlebox » Fri Nov 23, 2012 10:05 am

EU Trade today same thing over and over everyday.

There are two forces acting upon us: Suffering pushes us forward from behind and pleasures entice us and pull us forward.

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Postby Jalarupa » Fri Nov 23, 2012 3:21 pm

"If this Euro can't close above 1.29 I'm planning on shorting the living daylights out of it..."

Luckily I follow my own rules... ;)
:smt065

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Postby newscalper » Fri Nov 23, 2012 5:51 pm

bettlebox wrote:Based purely on that chart humble posted and his comments this what i see.

2 pictures 1 is orginal picture its bit of mess so i did a simplfied version of the same price movement to help example what i see.



here is orginal

Well that looks like you're saying the same as Humble in that until every single small TF zline is broken to the downside then price is going up. This cannot be so because it would mean that price is not going down until it's already gone WAY down, actually probably to the higher TF demand area again.

Are you even looking at the higher TF chart. Was there not a big downward move, is there not a supply area there ?

Is the higher TF momo larger or smaller than the small TF momo?

You're either trend trading the small TF or you're trading pure supply and demand retracements from the higher TF and they usually are opposite.

To whoever said something about looking for 100% - no I'm not, stop assuming.
2, also assuming I'm always looking for huge moves, again you are assuming.

Also, this was a trade trying to utilise space no? i.e. no moving of stops to break, not that was chance anyway as price never cleared the spread. And either reducing of lots when price closes across an If then, I exited when price closed across an if/then.

I know you['re being helpful but suggesting yet another method strategy, when trying to work out THIS specific one is not helpful as all it is doing is bringing more variables to the table.

I can tell you that the only trade long above the daily open with hourly bias is just as failure prone as any other I've tested it till death over umpteen years data a coulle of years back, manually in forex tester over about 3 markets. The only condition that made it work was the addition of trend following with the use of a trailing stop at lows, and that included when the trade was not in profit as well as when it was. Exiting after momo, exiting at previous swing highs etc did not 'work'. The problem? It's trend following so the win rate is quite low, sideways markets slaughter you, some markets make you money others destroy you - it's not consistent, some years you make money, others slaughter you etc. It's a crap-shoot. Similarly something as 'idiotic' as H4 breakouts with daily colour can be made to 'work' in testing or H4 bars crossing a 25 line with weekly colour a-la a weekly buyzone...;.caveat being in real time there are trades you don't take as you miss them, don't take because of news etc etc.

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Postby prochargedmopar » Fri Nov 23, 2012 8:06 pm

newscalper wrote:
bettlebox wrote:Based purely on that chart humble posted and his comments this what i see.

2 pictures 1 is orginal picture its bit of mess so i did a simplfied version of the same price movement to help example what i see.



here is orginal

Well that looks like you're saying the same as Humble in that until every single small TF zline is broken to the downside then price is going up. This cannot be so because it would mean that price is not going down until it's already gone WAY down, actually probably to the higher TF demand area again.

Are you even looking at the higher TF chart. Was there not a big downward move, is there not a supply area there ?

Is the higher TF momo larger or smaller than the small TF momo?

You're either trend trading the small TF or you're trading pure supply and demand retracements from the higher TF and they usually are opposite.

To whoever said something about looking for 100% - no I'm not, stop assuming.
2, also assuming I'm always looking for huge moves, again you are assuming.

Also, this was a trade trying to utilise space no? i.e. no moving of stops to break, not that was chance anyway as price never cleared the spread. And either reducing of lots when price closes across an If then, I exited when price closed across an if/then.

I know you['re being helpful but suggesting yet another method strategy, when trying to work out THIS specific one is not helpful as all it is doing is bringing more variables to the table.

I can tell you that the only trade long above the daily open with hourly bias is just as failure prone as any other I've tested it till death over umpteen years data a coulle of years back, manually in forex tester over about 3 markets. The only condition that made it work was the addition of trend following with the use of a trailing stop at lows, and that included when the trade was not in profit as well as when it was. Exiting after momo, exiting at previous swing highs etc did not 'work'. The problem? It's trend following so the win rate is quite low, sideways markets slaughter you, some markets make you money others destroy you - it's not consistent, some years you make money, others slaughter you etc. It's a crap-shoot. Similarly something as 'idiotic' as H4 breakouts with daily colour can be made to 'work' in testing or H4 bars crossing a 25 line with weekly colour a-la a weekly buyzone...;.caveat being in real time there are trades you don't take as you miss them, don't take because of news etc etc.


Dude,
Go back to basics.
What is a trend?
What is consolidation?

Stop trying to trade the trend in consolidation...^^^^ above charts.

OR: move down to a 30 sec or 15 sec chart based on your above m5 levels.
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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prochargedmopar
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Postby prochargedmopar » Fri Nov 23, 2012 8:07 pm

Hint:
TLOC
#1BODY in direction of profit #2INCREASE lot size Obsessively
My Losses cause me Great Laughter!
Trading Bible here> therumpledone/the-ideas-that-i-trade-by-t3256/page1670

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